LC

That's par for the course of what you get out of doctor Trump. How many doctors prescribed hydroxychloroquine just cause they were afraid they would get sued by trumpers if they didn't because the dude shot his mouth? Without control for who was prescribed which drug, the study is meaningless.

The real unknown here is how various desks will price these assets going forward and the various implications of that (i.e. reduced volumes or higher collateral reqs). Many existing models (e.g. gabillon) do not allow for negative prices. Similarly to negative interest rates a few years back.

Will be interesting to see how commodity desks react in the coming weeks/months.

Let's make this happen: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/212-214-W-Oak-St-Cushing-OK-74023/2084509578_zpid/ Why buy? You can get an AirBnB on the cheap. Large pool - required amenity. Damn right! These 170 IQ ideas are why I frequent this forum ;D ;D ;D

Let's make this happen: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/212-214-W-Oak-St-Cushing-OK-74023/2084509578_zpid/

For context, the 2017-18 flu deaths in US were aprox 61,000 (worst year of the past decade). Current COVID deaths are 41,000.

I changed my vote from (Yes - LC) to (No-LC) The reason being is deaths have not continued to exponentially skyrocket. I think the market participants are intelligent enough to understand there will be financial consequences over the next 1-3 Qs and this has been 'baked in', along with global financial stimulus.

The president should fire himself.

To be fair Spek, I took some profits today. My two big concerns are the high capex and potential dividend cut (they have not earned the dividend and doubt they will this year with prices the way they are). Also to add onto this: energy is far, far out of my circle of competence. This is purely a trading bet and maybe describing it as a 5% position is too generous. More like a 2% position that I would hope grows into 5% position? I'm somewhat flying blind here if that wasn't apparent already :D

You're a NYC landlord and don't know any slumlord tactics? C'mon :D

Not directed at you, but the general question you raise: Well, then what is a good buy? A month ago the entire market tanked. OK - let's say BRK has totally sour views on banking, energy, and anything travel-related. What about the rest of the economy? Surely there were some bargains in unrelated industries? I think if they are holding their breath for desperate business owners to call them up, begging to sell out, then they will go blue in the face before that phone rings. If they can't find bargains as investors in public markets during a viral market rout, then go run a PE shop.

What happens when all the banks go full WFH and have to start paying/reimbursing employee internet access? Will they attempt to cut costs by taking on the Telcos?

This is the small bet I've made with XOM. <5% position but I would like to build to a 5% position in the next month or so.

There are other factors: population density and volume of international travel being two that come to mind. Realistically my guess is a combination of all these factors.

It means that COVID attempts to infect all age groups, not just one particular demographic group. Obviously different groups are more or less susceptible to infection, but the virus is not specifically targeting one group vs. another.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/tax-change-coronavirus-stimulus-act-millionaires-billionaires Covid stimulus bill allows pass-through losses to be deducted against unrelated income sources. Let no crisis go to waste!

At the risk of sounding misanthropic: I think the lesson here is that, this WILL happen again (could be next year, next decade, next century - but viruses do not go away) ; and we will NOT be prepared, we will not learn from this, and to think otherwise is to grossly overestimate the ability for a bunch of tribal nations and populist leaders to "do what is right". Look at China and the US to see what the world powers are doing: totalitarian misinformation vs. egotistical misinformation. Nonsense all around.

Over the last 1.5 weeks I dipped the toes into: goog ; wfc ; tfsl ; xom ; nlsn & mo (told myself i wouldn't but so cheap...) ; irm Some of these were repeat customers. At about 10% cash and can raise more if necessary over the coming months.

The one thing I've learned about marketing is to never underestimate human ignorance ;D ;D ;D

I do agree with Spek that FL has seen boom & bust for decades. We bought foreclosure properties in St. Pete's for 40k in 2012, worth 5-6x that amount now. FL is one of the most volatile areas for real estate. That said, there is a point here regarding hedging tax/political climate. If you live in a state with a heavy tax regime, investments in states with an opposing tax philosophy may provide a valuable and cheap hedge. Choose your state carefully, of course.

Apologies way in advance for this one:

First and foremost, hopefully his health improves. On his fund, what a turn of events. I presume the drastic swing (from “400% man” to blown up) is due to leverage. Goes to show you that objective #1 is to stay in the game.

Reposting this about a month later, now to see the effect in Europe: http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

I know you guys hate him, but this is satire you realize, right? The worst part is that it's becoming harder and harder to tell ;D