LC

Good on you, this is how I aspire to live my life as well.

I have no idea how it will play out...perhaps hyperinflation will occur and that will take care of it...but I do think it's a pretty disgusting system...credit risk has been removed from the loan equation, and schools that have no business charging 50k per year can do so. Essentially it's a government approved LBO of America's future...with no option for a bankruptcy reorg if it fails.

Smart to walk away. I work with the NYC dept of buildings and I understand your pain...but these type of projects are difficult without multiple layers of financing and having connections within the building dept.

my thoughts as well...though i'm not sure it's one of warren's.

not sure why i'm still living in brooklyn instead of moving to china...

Excellent subreddit...and by the looks of what gets posted here vs. posted there, I'd guess a few members here are moderators/subscribers to /r/securityanalysis.

I am taking the same position...just recently sold a large position in my Roth...now at about 32% cash. Call it instinct or just the upswing in market prices, but I want to have dry powder now (when the market doesn't want it) versus needing it later when the market may be screaming for it.

Wise words!

I can't believe she let him off the topic of a potential bubble in Insurance stocks! I would've loved to hear Charlie's thoughts on that...

I agree: but if you're selling pretentiousness via the grocery business, you have to make sure your brand is viewed as the "most" pretentious, correct? Is Trader Joe's or Whole Foods more pretentious? In other words, how strong is the brand? What makes one operator in the high-end grocery business more profitable than another?

Also time value of money. Those DTAs are going to be used year into the future, not today. I agree with valuing them at 15-25c on the dollar.

Looks like an excellent business...I'd call it the Heinz of hot sauce? http://articles.latimes.com/2013/apr/12/business/la-fi-himi-tran-20130414

Read his partnership reports, then BRK reports, then his writings/interviews in the media, then the books about him.

Not sure. But I can say with more certainty that it will not be out of business, which is how it's priced today.

Would love to know anyone's experience with this as well. I'd like to be able to find bargains higher in the capital structure as well. It's fun screening for low P/Es and I can only imagine how fun it would be to screen for senior bonds trading significantly below par.

You are asking really intelligent questions. I adopted the idea that learning the models would be useless unless I applied them to reality all the time; because of course, all skills attenuate through disuse. I generated my list of models first by studying Charlie Munger's lessons, and by reading every book he's ever recommended. I also studied other sources like Farnam Street. Then I wrote down all the models that obviously had explanatory and predictive power. (This is such a simple idea) Then I had to make the models easily accessible memory-wise, so I used the linking method and then created a memory palace for them. When I'm making any kind of meaningful decision, I go through my checklist by walking through my memory palace. And of course the more I do it the easier it gets. What this mental routine has done for me is perfectly ridiculous. I can never thank Charlie enough for the gift he's given me. Wow, that is quite impressive. Let me ask you, how difficult is it to implement that memory technique? I have tried it in the past and it never "stuck" with me. It makes such logical sense that I would like to implement it, and a list of mental models would be an excellent use of this memory technique!

It might not be a bad idea to put some limit orders for absurdly low prices in as a hedge against this ;D

My daughter was flying to NYC for business two days after the Boston marathon bombing. When I got home the evening of the bombing, my wife was worried that my daughter shouldn't go. I told her not to worry that this is the safest time for our daughter to go to NYC because of the heightened awareness. Oh yes, I can tell you from experience that NYC was quite safe that day. Lots of undercover cops in yellow cabs and in the subway.

Heh, my father collected Stamps and Coins. I, of course, being younger and slightly more....math inclined?...collected Magic: The Gathering cards. I'm sure the older posters have no idea what that is but perhaps my fellow 20-somethings do. At any rate, last I checked, the more valuable cards have appreciated about 400% over the past 15 years. Works out to about 11% CAGR. I'll have to brag to my folks about that one, they labeled it a "useless game!" ;D

I guess the answer to my question is one of the fundamental aspects of the insurance industry... In regards to your curiosity, my gut reaction is that it is human nature. People only pay attention to what is fresh in their mind. I observe it every day at work: if we have an issue with a large client, we develop some new initiative to solve the problem. Two months later? It's forgotten. To make permanent change is very difficult, especially when dealing with problems of large magnitude but do not occur frequently.

Here's my thought: What would you do in cases where your options do not match the risk profile? So if the risk of a robbery occurs in 1/500 instances, and you have two options: hire a security guard vs. install a security camera. Now the security guard prevents 99/100 potential robberies and the security camera only prevents 1/100 potential robberies, which do you choose? Where is the line between being overly-conservative and overly-risky? I just made these probabilities up (obviously) but I hope you understand the question I am posing!

I love that joke :)

I am curious as well. All my BAC Leaps are of the 2015 variety. But my thinking is as a hedge they are more nimble. If there is a pullback this year, the 2014 options can be exercised and you haven't paid for a year of insurance which you didn't need. If there is no pullback, you can roll the puts over.

I think the only reason to sell these days is #6 on twacowfca's list. I'm about 20% cash, but I want to increase that to about 30-40%.

This comment got me thinking about how to "average up" into investments. If an investment goes from a 6x to a 3x you would average into it, despite the price having just doubled. Averaging down seems easier compared to averaging up for investors. I know for myself, if nothing has changed value-wise, I will average down after a 20% drop. But buying more after a 20% rise is more difficult. Using Pabrai's framework makes it easier psychologically to average up!