UK
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Posts posted by UK
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35 minutes ago, Gregmal said:
Yea in a lot of ways this is all actually really similar to what occurred last year, even down to the monthly timing or it all. More or less nothing changed but people started screaming and guaranteeing recessions are imminent and those looking at “the market” can only seem to stare at Fang stocks. It’s all rather stupid and boring. Waiting for something real to happen.
I agree. The only major difference this time is so far market is down only some 10 per cent (not yet fully) vs almost 30 per cent last year. Nothing special yet.
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Read somewhere recently: “Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections or anticipating corrections than has been lost in the corrections themselves.”
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15 hours ago, John Hjorth said:
My class teacher in high school sometimes used the term and talked about 'rich people's stupid and dumb children'.
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The complaint said the family objected repeatedly, but Buffett refused to commit not to use pushdown accounting. It said he instead told Pilot founder and Jimmy Haslam's father James Haslam II this month: "I said that Berkshire will comply with the terms of the contract. That's exactly what will happen." Buffett's assistant did not immediately respond to a request for comment after market hours. Kristin Seabrook, Pilot's chief legal counsel, in a statement said the lawsuit concerned "a narrow issue between owners," and declined further comment about it.
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Thanks everyone for comments!
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44 minutes ago, gfp said:
Indeed. Not sure what to think about it? Maybe some kind of misunderstanding which will be yet explained. I doubt Greg already has changed BRK's acquisition policy to hostile/active/aggressive:)
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17 minutes ago, treasurehunt said:
I don't understand this comment by Evan Greenberg. If investment yields have gone up a lot (say by 3 or 4 percentage points), then it should be possible to raise the combined ratio by a lot more than 1 point and achieve the same risk-adjusted return, no? I realize that this depends on the size of the investment portfolio relative to earned premiums, but the math for Fairfax indicates that the CR can go up a lot and they can still earn a good risk-adjusted return. Is it different for most other insurance companies?
I am not sure I understand his comment either, but this logic you have described I think would work only for insurers with short duration bond portfolios. It would be interesting to know what is the average duration of bond portfolios of the whole insurance industry, but assuming some other companies own much more longer term bonds, increase in yields would not do much good for them for quite a while?
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“I want to be very clear: The United States’ defense commitment to the Philippines is ironclad,” he said. “Any attack on the Filipino aircraft, vessels, or armed forces will invoke our Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines.”
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3 hours ago, Xerxes said:
Seinfeld and Cheers defined the 90s for meGames of Thrones defined the 2010s for me.
2020s there is no flagship. Just one giant pile of good shows.
Sopranos and Breaking Bad/Better Call Saul? These two, plus Fargo, are basically the only series I have watched or remember:)
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Chinese authorities are again shaking the confidence of foreign companies in the country with a series of arrests and an investigation into Foxconn Technology Group, Apple Inc.’s most important partner and one of the largest employers in China. Over the weekend, state media said that regulators are conducting tax audits and reviewing land use by Foxconn, the Taiwanese company that makes the vast majority of iPhones at factories in China. Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Foxconn’s public arm, said it will collaborate with authorities. Meanwhile, an executive and two former employees of WPP Plc, one of the world’s biggest advertising companies, have been arrested in China, people familiar with the matter said.
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5 hours ago, RichardGibbons said:
That makes me wonder if the best thing for the world would be the Ukrainian war lasting for a decade. Horrible for Ukraine, but if nations began to believe that any war is likely to last many years, consuming many lives and resources, I think there would be fewer wars.
Honestly, I sometimes think I have no idea even for what scenario to wish, not to mention, that I have not idea of what to expect from all this in the end. Sure all of this could be still very early. I know for sure I feel sickened of all sufferings of Ukrainian people though. Also, living some 100+ miles from Minsk, I definitely do not like possibilities and talks, such as this:
"Vladimir Putin, Mr. Biden noted, views the Baltic countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as rogue Russian provinces. He won’t stop at Ukraine."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-speaks-but-will-he-act-61fe471c
But intuitively (and maybe wrongly), I think response should be much more forceful (especially from Europe) and quick. Big mistakes were already made and good opportunities lost by dragging this out or not preparing even now much more for the future.
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On 10/20/2023 at 5:51 PM, Xerxes said:
Luca
i think you might enjoy this episode. Peter Keefe talks about his top three positions (decade(s) old holdings) in about 45 min into the episode.
The top three (Microsoft, Markel and American Tower) are very different holdings and different history of how he got into them. There are lots of lore on American Tower.
At is pertains this thread and “driving FFH to the wall comment” by @StubbleJumper, Peter’s view on Markel is interesting. Calls insurance not a very good business and that he is only there because of the management as capital allocator.
This is a new name for me, but it is very interesting/good interview! Liked his angle on nature. The only thing missing: a question on his view re MKL vs FFH:)
This seems to be his 13F: https://13f.info/13f/000103347523000006-avenir-corp-q2-2023
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NATO should consider a halt to Russian shipping in the Baltic Sea if evidence emerges that the Kremlin is behind the damage to a pipeline connecting Finland and Estonia, Latvia’s president said. “The discussion should be about how we can close the Baltic Sea in order to protect our critical infrastructure” if Russia is found to be responsible, President Edgars Rinkevics told Latvia’s public broadcaster late Thursday. His office later clarified that the comments pertained to Russian shipping. President Vladimir Putin has denied that the Kremlin was involved in the pipeline rupture to the Balticconnector gas pipeline, which was discovered earlier this month. North Atlantic Treaty Organization this week dispatched mine hunters, patrol aircraft and early warning planes to the Baltic Sea to safeguard underwater infrastructure. NATO has the ability to stop shipping in the Baltic, Rinkevics said.
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In the Ukraine portion of the request, the White House is asking for additional weapons systems, economic and civilian security assistance, nuclear crisis management, and support for Ukrainian refugees in the United States. Because the weapons and ammunitions sent abroad are largely taken from existing US stockpiles that are then replaced by new equipment made in America, the White House says the president’s request would invest over $50 billion in the US defense industrial base.
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! am waiting very much for https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13287846/ and https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5537002/.
Meanwhile, I finally have started watching Game of Thrones:)))
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11 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
To sum it up:
We are screwed if interest rates are at zero.
We are screwed if interest rates stay where they are.
We are screwed even more if interest rates go higher.
I think the problem is not any particular scenario, but that we just can not know for sure which of them will persist. At least for me this means diworsification between longer duration (or lower rates again beneficiares) vs shorter duration (or higher rates for longer beneficiaries). I am at ~50/50 on this:).
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12 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:
I think real household net worth hasn't gone anywhere nominally from Q1 2022 from the same data. Which means for the last 2+ years the average household has LOST net worth in real terms.
And that's before any real damage has been done to housing which is MOST households' largest asset and won't remain at these "most unaffordable" levels for much longer IMO.
Well, you may be right on last two years, but they came after "Inflation-adjusted median net worth jumped 37% to $192,900 from 2019 to 2022"
As for housing: https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/19/homes/existing-home-sales-september/index.html. Are you expecting home prices to fall substiantially going forward?
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16 hours ago, Haryana said:
In contrast, the PB ratio of Asian banks is pegged at 13.41.
This must be a typo, maybe PE?
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12 hours ago, ValueArb said:
Some good Ed Thorp investment stories. He certainly wasn't a one trick pony, his curiosity to learn and understand new things must have been off the charts.
https://miltonfmr.com/ed-thorps-remarkable-journey-from-beating-casinos-to-dominating-wall-street/
If I remember correctly, in some interview he said, that he put most of his money into BRK in the end, exchanging possible extra returns to a more free time:)
Have We Hit The Top?
in General Discussion
Posted
It is the direction China is moving. I do not disagree with you on this from the point of the dwellers:), but why would it be a bad for a country? Isn't it just much more productive way to house you population? Much more resources left for other/more productive sectors or just carrier ships and nuclear weapons:)?
This is a good article on the whole topic: https://www.economist.com/international/2023/09/06/the-growing-global-movement-to-restrain-house-prices
In many English-speaking countries, inspired by Victorian worries about “slums”, planning laws tended to prioritise detached houses. For urban planners, such as Ebenezer Howard, density was seen as akin to crowding. In packed industrial hotspots, “downzoning” and slum clearance were used to flatten cities and spread them out by force. The writer George Orwell was sceptical of the proceedings: “If people are going to live in large towns at all they must learn to live on top of one another,” he declared. But he reckoned that many workers in Britain did not “take kindly to flats”.