UK
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Posts posted by UK
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6 hours ago, stockman500 said:
Anyone else following the British Bank of England thing with the rate hikes up?
Anyone think things can start getting crazy very soon.
Kuppy has been tweeting a lot about it
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11 minutes ago, Parsad said:
Other way around. FFH 1% and BRK probably 6%. If a $60B loss, FFH would be hit with $600M or so and BRK would be hit with a $3.6B loss or so. Cheers!
Thanks, yes, but than I compared those possible losses (acctually 0.7 and 5.6 B) to market CAP of FFH and BRK and come to 6 and 1, respectively.
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1 hour ago, Parsad said:
Fairfax is in much better financial position to withstand hurricane losses than it was in previous large scale hurricane catastrophes like Andrew. Fairfax will incur about a 0.75-1% loss, while someone like Berkshire will probably incur a 5-8% loss. Also, as tragic as Ian will be, this will only bode well for a continued hard market in reinsurance. Premium pricing was expected to be strong through 2023, but with Ian and other potential losses this year, the hard market will likely continue into 2024 as well. Cheers!
Thank you. So, if I understand correctly, at upper bands, it would be something like about 6 per cent from CAP for FFH (and 1 per cent to BRK).
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Would FFH felt substantial impact if such predictions come true?
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The UNC analysis comes with caveats. Lacking confidential tax returns that would allow precise calculations, the authors used publicly available financial data. Companies might change behavior to minimize taxes. A one-year snapshot includes unusual situations that cause companies to pay the minimum tax once, generating tax credits that can be used in future years.
Under the new law, companies averaging more than $1 billion in publicly reported annual profits calculate their taxes twice: once under the regular system with a 21% rate and again with a 15% rate and different rules for deductions and credits. They pay whichever is higher. The new system, known as the book minimum tax, starts with income reported on the financial statement, not traditional taxable income. Differences between the two—the treatment of stock-based compensation, for example—could drive a company into paying the new tax. According to the UNC estimates, Berkshire Hathaway would have paid the most in 2021, at $8.3 billion—or about a quarter of the estimated total—followed by Amazon at $2.8 billion and Ford Motor Co. at $1.9 billion.
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In the oher news: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/22/turkey-cuts-interest-rates-again-as-country-struggles-under-inflation.html
Erdogan, meanwhile, remains optimistic, predicting that inflation will fall by year-end. “Inflation is not an insurmountable economic threat. I am an economist,” the president said during an interview Tuesday. Erdogan is not an economist by training.
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1 hour ago, nwoodman said:
Sure is creating some interesting opportunities either way. Flushing of weak hands and crappy businesses is a pleasing outcome. Cathie Wood stepping down from a couple of her shittier ETFs should mark the beginning of the end
And TSLA still >CAP 800 B!
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On 9/22/2022 at 4:50 PM, changegonnacome said:
Suspect we’ll touch something in the late 2000’s on SPY….settling somewhere in low 3000’s where the next, hopefully decade long expansion, can build out from.Some type of ‘financial event’ is very likely between now and when price stability is returned. I won’t even guess it’s exact source but changing the most important price in the economy (the price of money) so rapidly and so aggressively after such a prolonged period of ultra low rates has 1st and 2nd order effects way beyond the capacity of anyone to predict.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-market-still-isnt-priced-for-a-proper-recession-11663857523
i have no idea, but just for fun, speaking about this whole FCF vs rate question, I think in the 1H and until yesterday most of the stock market drop was driven by rate vs fcf and valuation rerating of more expensive/growth companies, together with long bonds. No idea if and when, but If market starts to price some hard landing, earnings drop and some second order effects (just look at GBP), lower inflation, and then deflation:), then value/high FCF/short duration/leveraged things could lead decline? either way very exiting times possibly is coming again:)
UK
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2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
Do you think there is a chance that lawmakers understand mathematical algorithms well enough to regulate them?
i imagine job will be done by this or similar agency:
Learning from the best:
"Beijing has looked to European antitrust authorities as a model as it seeks to upgrade its antitrust capabilities, one of the people said. In August, SAMR's antitrust office said on its website that it had invited experts from the EU and United States to hold online courses for Chinese "antitrust talents". "Compared to other major anti-monopoly enforcement authorities in the world, the authorities in China currently have fewer staff, which needs to be changed in the future," Wu Zhenguo, head of SAMR's anti-monopoly bureau, told industrial online journal The Antitrust Source in a July interview"
However:
"The State Administration for Market Regulation will boost staffing at its anti-monopoly bureau, which will be split into three separate divisions focusing on antitrust investigations, market competition and mergers oversight, according to people with knowledge of the matter, asking not to be identified as the information hasn’t been made public. It’s planning to increase the number of antitrust officials from over 40 currently to 100, before reaching 150 within five years, two of the people said. "
Seems like really small number, FTC gave like 1000+ people, but perhaps it is not comparable/different.
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/algorithms-vs-regulators-battle-royale-kicks-off-in-china-11634125270
China is taking a first step toward regulating algorithms. How that experiment goes could help Western regulators understand what to embrace—and what to avoid—as they ponder tougher controls on Western social-media giants too. China launched a sweeping three-year plan last month to regulate the use of algorithms, setting itself up as a potential trailblazer as governments around the world step up regulation of Big Tech. According to draft rules released in August, companies can’t use algorithms which lead to addiction or excessive spending. Users should also have the right to opt out.
The broad-based regulations, if implemented strictly, could fundamentally shake up the business models of many successful internet companies. For example ByteDance, the owner of TikTok, has succeeded largely by recommending catchy content with the help of its powerful algorithm. To be sure, some aspects of China’s proposals are clearly targeted at maintaining government control. Guidelines from the internet watchdog say algorithms should uphold core socialist values and promote positive energy. Democratic societies are unlikely to accept such strictures, and even more benign rules would likely face court challenges. But watching how China’s moves work out—and how large any collateral economic damage ultimately is—could still prove useful to other countries which also are grappling with the enormous societal impact of internet companies. The European Union proposed a bill in April to regulate artificial intelligence systems in some so-called high-risk uses like critical infrastructure, college admissions and loan applications. In the U.S., Congress recently conducted a hearing on Facebook after The Wall Street Journal’s investigations into the social-media giant.
The biggest problem for regulating algorithms is how opaque they are. That is becoming a bigger issue as more decisions are made by machines which learn through crunching a vast amount of data. It isn’t easy, sometimes even for the creators of algorithms, to pinpoint the exact reason why an artificial intelligence makes a particular decision. Biases embedded in the training data could unknowingly seep into the decision-making process. And algorithms can also narrowly focus on some objectives, like amplifying viral content, without considering other impacts. Moreover, they are also continually updating, which makes regulation even harder.
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"Erdogan has described himself as an “enemy” of interest rates, and espouses an unconventional theory that lowering interest rates will lead to lower inflation. The inflation rate was 19.6% in September, when Kavcioglu lowered the benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 18%."
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https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4302938/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kubo_and_the_Two_Strings
"Kubo premiered at Melbourne International Film Festival and was released by Focus Features in the United States on August 19 to critical acclaim, but was considered a box office failure, grossing $77 million worldwide against a budget of $60 million."
After watching cannot believe it was considered a failure:)
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/walk-in-cryptocurrency-exchanges-emerge-amid-bitcoin-boom-11633107697
Cryptocurrency storefront operators say in-person advice and a physical presence instill trust among those unlikely to invest
online
“We allow individuals from all walks of life to be able to participate in this digital asset ecosystem, without the hurdles of attempting to onboard with self-service online exchanges, not to mention the technological barriers that people of a certain age might perceive,” said Adam Hack, the chief executive and founder of Coin Nerds.
The exchanges charge fees ranging from 0.99% to 5% for each transaction, slightly more than those charged by large online exchanges.
“We’re not going to have a digital revolution, for lack of a better term, without everybody participating in the ecosystem,” he said. “A lot of people are still grasping the concept and they still want to learn how to use it.”
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"One thing remains unchanged: Railroads and their biggest customers (such as coal shippers, agriculture processors and chemical plants) are condemned to live in angry tension because neither can exist without the other. Their ancient fights were recently reprised at length in the Washington Monthly by think tanker Phillip Longman, who portrays today’s freight railroads as abusive monopolists. These companies, he says, are operated by modern-day “robber barons” who perversely want to shrink the industry “to the point of non-viability” for “short-term economic gain” (this will be news to one of those robber barons, Warren Buffett, who praises his Burlington Northern Santa Fe as a source of long-term profits). When this argument doesn’t get him far, Mr. Longman rolls out an alternate clincher: climate change. Because railroads use less fuel per ton-mile than trucks, railroads should be forced to change their practices and pricing to subsidize more freight to switch from trucks to rail. The blessed result will be a “cooler planet” via “huge reductions in carbon emissions.” Echoing this argument has been Mr. Biden’s newly installed head of the Surface Transportation Board, Martin Oberman. In a speech he claimed that “123 million tons of global warming CO2 has been pumped into our atmosphere just because the railroads chose not to maintain their market share as compared to trucks (emphasis added).” The wording is slippery. Railroads and their customers both choose to maximize their efficiency and profitability. Messrs. Oberman and Longman also fail to mention that any emissions reductions would be infinitesimal in relation to the atmosphere."
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I Need a Laugh. Tell me a Joke. Keep em PC.
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