UK
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Posts posted by UK
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“This huge world of investible assets has shrunk down to a small cohort,” said Savita Subramanian, equity and quantitative strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “We’re all in this echo chamber where everyone goes to the same dinners and drinks the same Kool-Aid.”
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What difference if you buy value or overpriced growth in a crash ? Didn't Berkshire get cut in half even In 99? Graham said during the great depression everything went down, even cash was worth less than cash . The best time to buy anything is when nothing is particularly inflated ?
https://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2002/11/11/331843/index.htm
"As for Berkshire's stock--well, it has certainly held its own recently. On March 10, 2000, the Nasdaq peaked (interday) at 5,132. That same day Berkshire hit a multiyear low of $40,800. Recently the Nasdaq traded for 1,270, down 75%, while Berkshire traded for $74,000, up 81%"
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Some early "winners" emerging, even before Maria: http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2017/09/28/465902.htm
"Lloyd’s of London expects net losses of $4.5 billion from hurricanes Harvey and Irma, which analysts said would eat into the insurer’s capital and hit its profitability."
"Meanwhile, Beale said it was too early to assess losses from Hurricane Maria, which devastated Puerto Rico last week and which some analysts have predicted will lead to greater insurance losses than Harvey and Irma."
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Yes, recent history/longer term/on general you are probably right regarding their improving quality, but they just made "transformation acquisition" (and btw issued some 4.8 M shares to finance it) and added substantial new exposures for 1.3 BV, seemingly not cheaper than their own shares, especially considering that they are undervalued and know themselves better, and I am wondering, can we be sure that there will not be any really negative surprises, especially considering this:
https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/1029717
"At the upper end of that range this would be a record year for global catastrophe losses, which Fitch says, “could weaken capital at some (re)insurers and increase the risk of rating downgrades.”
Does anybody has any deeper insights into this and possible impact on Fairfax+AW? Maybe than, accidentally or not, this could turn out to be even better opportunity/cheap price? Or just nobody can know about possible event impact even remotely at this time? Why not wait than?
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If I am not mistaken in March of 2015 and 2016 they issued 1.15 and 1.0 M shares at 650 and 735 CAD or simple/unadjusted 1.31 and 1.37 PBV (on year end BV of the each year) respectively. Now supposedly they are starting to buyback the same amount or little more at the price 625 CAD at the same simple/unadjusted 1.34 PBV (on 2q 2017). So how it could be so smart thing to do? Isn't the awesomeness of this whole operation not bigger than the difference between issuing and buying back valuations?
Other question is if we can be so sure that underwriting track record of recent years will not be broken due to the recent events? It is a question for FFH experts, because I myself have no idea really about his, but FFH attained these underwriting profits while under really favorable circumstances and now I read that Maria alone could caused an estimated $40 billion to $85 billion in insured losses (but mainly in Puerto Rico and I have no idea if they do have any exposure there).
UK
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Question 7: What impact have the fixed income markets had on stocks?
WB: Interest rates are to asset valuation as gravity is to matter. It will take a lot of movement in interest rates (similar to Paul Volcker in 1981-2) before stocks are too high. The interest rates on 30 year Treasury bonds have declined from 14 ½ % to 2 ½ % from 1982 to 2016. Recently, the 30 year Treasury moved from 2.6% – 2.8%. Stocks are cheap if long term rates are at 4%, four to five years from now. “We are buying more shares than selling everyday unless interest rates move appreciably higher”. A profitable trade would be to short the 30 year bond and go long the S&P 500 (assuming no margin calls). But this is difficult to do on a big scale. Borrowed money causes more people to go broke than anything else. Charlie Munger has said, smart people “go broke from liquor, ladies and leverage”.
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Fiddler on the roof - If I were a rich man
:)
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PSX was indeed acquired as a spin off from COP.
If I recall correctly, at the time of spin off BRK held about 29 M shares of COP, so only about 14,5 M were acquired this way, the rest, or about 12.6 were bought additionally, probably by Todd and then it could be one of his largest position.
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Articles on Warren Buffett, Mohnish Pabrai and more:
http://business.outlookindia.com/content.aspx?site=2&issue=11071
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Question: Do you impose the same investment limitations on Tedd and Todd as yourself? E.g. can one of them invest in MSFT?
Didn't Buffet also mention he won't invest in vice stocks like tobacco and alcohol? Curios to see if he imposes that on them as well.
I'm curious, when did Buffett mention vice stocks? Past AGMs? Don't recall this, though have heard him talk about how many letters from gamblers he gets (when talking about state lotteries).
I think it's mainly Charlie, who has mentioned in several interviews that Berkshire would never invest in a casino because it's a dirty business. Buffett I think once said that he would never be in the tobacco business, but he doesn't mind owning a retailer (referencing Costco) that sells tobacco. I think they were once offered to buy a tobacco company, and even though they liked the economics, they chose against it for moral reasons.
EDIT: As far as when they've said it, I'm not sure, but I'm trying to do a google search.
http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/tid/whg85e00
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Anyone know if Warren's done this at other investments like Wells Fargo, Amex or others?
http://news.yahoo.com/wells-fargo-boss-talks-bank-174027047.html
—Warren Buffett is your biggest shareholder. (His conglomerate, Berkshire Hathaway, holds an 8 percent stake in Wells, about $14 billion worth, according to financial data provider FactSet.) Tell us about that. He reads everything. One time I talked to him on a Monday, we'd put out our 10-Q (a quarterly financial report) on a Friday, and he said he spent all day Saturday reading it cover to cover. I said, 'Warren, you do that often?' He said, 'Oh, I love Q's.' He was asking me about some esoteric asset — I was blown away.
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http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315090/000119312513060393/d481780d13fnt.txt
If you read the 13 HR from Berkshire Hathaway under #4, it should include what Buffett holds privately. The 13 HR is really a disclosure of who controls what and has authority to vote the shares. However, it won't include debt, muni's and cash that Buffett may hold.
Again, maybe that I am wrong, but that is how I interpret the SEC filing requirement.
Cardboard
Hopefully it's only if you directly own 100m worth of stock. In other words, maybe if you own 50m of mutual funds and 50m of stocks, then no filing is necessary? Otherwise it seems like this is an invasion of privacy -- how do you keep your wealth secret from your children if you are filing with the SEC?
http://www.sec.gov/divisions/investment/13ffaq.htm
''...but a natural person who exercises investment discretion over his or her own account is not an institutional investment manager"
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http://www.bloomberg.com/video/91760089/
Warren Buffett has, for decades, held an unparalleled position in American finance. He's a legendary investor, a billionaire, and the most respected businessman in America. How did he do it? Find out on Bloomberg Game Changers this Thursday, May 3rd at 9P ET/PT. (Source: Bloomberg)
Negative interest rates take investors into surreal territory
in General Discussion
Posted
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ecb-stimulus-package-may-beat-expectations-official-says-11565876685?mod=rsswn
"Mr. Rehn said he didn’t rule out a move to purchase equities under the QE program, but that would depend on the assessment of ECB staff."