Blake Hampton

Oh and:

I honestly don't see what's wrong here, but the market obviously didn't like it:

@ 4:54

A jump in interest rates for the U.S. 10-year Treasury was one reason Mr. Trump paused his reciprocal tariff plan. And they continue to have the administration’s attention. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told lawmakers this month that “the debt numbers are indeed scary,” and a crisis would involve “a sudden stop in the economy as credit would disappear.” America’s Debt Is Officially Tarnished. Here’s What Must Happen Next. - NYT

Unlocked article: Big Tax Hikes Are Coming - WSJ

"...dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands."

If you have two extremely destabilizing events—2008 and 2020—where the U.S. government steps up in a huge way to save the system, and everything else in the interim is full of more crazy debts, deficits, bank regulations, and market bubbles, what result do you think will ultimately prevail? It’s common fucking sense. What has happened in banking—banks taking on too much interest-rate risk—is insane. The current valuations of both stocks and real estate are insane. These massive sovereign debts and deficits, as well as the politicians creating them, are insane. The GFC and market troubles during the pandemic were insane. If you can look at all of this and conclude that our country is in good financial health, I don’t know what else to tell you. There is very likely nothing that could make you understand the severity of the situation outside of crisis itself—and by then, it will be too late to do anything. I firmly believe that lack of understanding is what’s ultimately led us to all of this. I referenced how 2008 almost ended in financial collapse—because it did—but our government, the almighty manager of the U.S. dollar, came to the rescue by bailing out the system. We ultimately had the same sort of thing happen in 2020. Great. Calamity avoided, right? The problem is that both the populace and legislators never learned and went right back to doing the exact same retarded shit. It's almost like karma, except they just delayed it onto their kids.

The last 20 years have been a period of financial insanity. Twenty years ago, back in 2005, we were in the midst of the subprime mortgage bubble that nearly caused a systemic collapse. Since then, the U.S. government has been gradually trapping itself into an increasingly dangerous financial position, one that's almost certain to lead to a serious crisis. I think he's simply being rational during a time of mass complacency.

Complacency:

When Jamie Dimon is warning that credit is a bad risk, and Warren Buffett keeps reminding everyone not to "bet against America," you better buckle up. Jamie Dimon Says Tariffs Might Inflict More Economic Pain Than Investors Realize - WSJ

Complacency: a feeling of smug or uncritical satisfaction with oneself or one's achievements.

I think this pretty much sums it up.

This year's budget is shaping up to be an absolute disaster: Republicans have a plan to add trillions to the national debt - The Economist These legislators have zero clue about the imminent risk this all poses. Have you noticed how Treasury bills now dominate debt issuance? All of this new debt is being issued at around a 4.25% rate, and we're likely heading into a period of higher inflation — which means rates will stay at least level, if not rise further. On top of all that new issuance, existing debt is rolling over at these higher rates. Our interest expense is exploding. And they think the best solution is to cut more taxes to "stimulate growth." I have no words.

There simply isn't enough demand to finance these large deficits on the long end. Attempt that, and you're almost certain to trigger a liquidity event — and likely a huge test of faith as well. The only reason we can continue financing these deficits on the short end is because people generally, for now at least, still have faith in the dollar. Remember, Treasury bills are cash equivalents. Yellen probably could have sold some longer-term debt back in 2021, since back then, everyone was buying any piece of shit they could get their hands on — but that’s certainly not the case now.

"If I only had a brain."

Which American politician said the following? Item one: “Walmart should STOP trying to blame Tariffs as the reason for raising prices throughout the chain. Walmart made BILLIONS OF DOLLARS last year, far more than expected. Between Walmart and China they should . . . EAT THE TARIFFS, and not charge valued customers ANYTHING. I’ll be watching, and so will your customers!!!” Item two: “After causing catastrophic inflation, Comrade Kamala announced that she wants to institute socialist price controls . . . Her plan is very dangerous because it may sound good politically . . . This is Communist; this is Marxist; this is fascist.” If you guessed that both are statements by Donald Trump, you have broken the code on the bizarro world of the President’s second-term economic policies. Last year he blasted Kamala Harris’s proposal for price controls on groceries. But now he is attacking Walmart for warning that it will have to raises prices in the wake of Mr. Trump’s tariffs. Mr. Trump’s flip-flop on price controls is a rebuttal of his own previous tariff claims. For months he’s said that foreign producers pay the full cost of tariffs. But now he’s admitting that Walmart, an American retailer, will have to eat some of the costs or pass them on to Americans. Despite his business background, Mr. Trump doesn’t know much about retail. Walmart’s net profit margin is below 3%, so it doesn’t have much room to absorb the higher costs caused by tariffs. Retail competition is intense, and Walmart’s longtime comparative advantage has been lower prices. Mr. President is telling a company how to run its business, along with a vague, implicit threat of retribution. Marxist? How would Mr. Trump react if Congress told him how much his family could charge for a Mar-a-Lago fee? Mr. Trump is trying to duck the political fallout for his misguided tariff policy by blaming everyone else. Americans are too smart to fall for it. Donald Trump Plays Walmart CEO - WSJ

Average U.S. Congressman:

Trump seems like the kind of guy who would try implementing price caps.

Who is truly more powerful: Donald or Doug?

Jerome Powell doesn't like the tree:

I call this one the Tree of Congress: