Blake Hampton

Yeah, when Trump almost blew up global trade in a week, that was a huge deal. And he backed out of it like a little bitch when Bessent got on his hands and knees and begged him to. Think long-term.

It does, does it? Watch how far that pendulum swings when the bond market's in crisis. I imagine you'll soil your drawers.

In what alternative universe have you lived through what's currently happening?

The article was written on June 11th so maybe, and I think it is good. And you're right: Kindergartners understand the nuances of current issuance, the difference in Treasury maturities, and who primarily owns all of the debt. Simple kindergartner stuff. Did I ever say that there wasn't a difference? And you have it exactly backwards. How could deficits ever pre-fund the cash financing them? In our current deficit fueled economy, Congress first authorizes spending, Treasury raises the cash needed through issuance, and only then is it spent. If someone were to really understand the fiscal math, I don't think they would want to own Treasury securities of any maturity outside of a couple years. Current interest rates on long-term debt are not appropriately pricing the risk being taken by buying them. 5% for a 30-year? I wouldn't buy that dogshit if it were at 7%. And imagine what would happen to our economy if long-term rates got up to 7%. Many banks would be kissing their ass goodbye, the real estate market would completely freeze up, and the stock market, which is currently selling at 5x book with a 30-year average ROE of around 13%, would likely take a massive shit. And that ROE? A lot of it was fueled by historically low corporate tax and interest expenses.

If I link a gift article, is there a cap on how many people can view it? I try and make them all gift articles so any of you without a subscription can still read them. Sometimes I feel like my screenshots and quotes border on copyright infringement.

Good article in the Journal about government debt: WSJ: How the U.S. Government Borrows to Fund Its Massive Budget Shortfall "In fact, the share of Treasurys held by foreign investors—including both public and private-sector buyers—has been declining for years." "Hedge funds, counted as “households” in Fed records, have helped pick up the slack. But they are seen as a less stable source of funding because they typically buy Treasurys using large amounts of borrowed money. That means they occasionally dump bonds during times of market stress, making those situations even worse."

Maybe the path to wisdom is getting railed in the market a couple of times. Losing a lot of money quick has a good way of instilling wisdom fast.

This is how it is. Humans like to have strong opinions without any real fundamental understanding of what it is they're talking about. I guess this is fine in politics, bad for your country of course but it won't hurt you alone in the end. However, this sort of thinking in the stock market will kill you.

And it's even the more upsetting because a lot of these politicians act like goobers. Biden and Trump, both goobers.

Sometimes I feel like an idiot for focusing so much on politics, and I'm sure that I still do, but there's no denying that this stuff is important. It's crazy to me just how "involved" the government is. One of the first things I noticed when I started studying all of this is just how focused everyone was on the Fed. I know why now but it's still crazy. Just imagine how difficult it would be to remove the government from things the way some traditionalists want. I wouldn't even know where to start. I don't even know if it's possible.

Thank you and I agree. I would recommend sitting down and really trying to contemplate how your thinking could be wrong. You don't have to accept it, just entertain the idea. Politics is important because it ultimately affects our money; especially now with the way the government is deeply entrenched in seemingly everything. I like the idea of exploring how I could be wrong. I think that in itself is a form of wisdom.

Someone oughta study you Cubs.

John Bogle was awesome. Maybe some people just have the wrong heroes.

I'm actually glad Trump won. Dude won the booby prize and he doesn't even know it.

Of course it's not to that same degree. Trump might an be ass, but he's no Hitler.

I imagine this is how rational Germans must have felt watching Hitler rise to power — they listened to his speeches, read Mein Kampf, recognized the obvious danger and cruelty in his ideology, yet were still forced to watch as those around them got swept up by his rhetoric and charisma. "Some people would rather die than think — and many of them do" - Bertrand Russell

I'm reading the book in that Bogle picture, and it's crazy to me how shitty of a person Trump is. Anyone who likes this man has done a great job at fooling themselves. The book also talks about how Mitt Romney led a Republican coalition trying to stop him during the 2016 primary election. It basically makes me feel like the current Republican party is a gross abomination of its formal self. McCain and Romney were good men. Trump however is a piece of shit.

MAGA has the collective brain cells of a freshly-made salad. Trump is working with one less.

Jack Bogle's office:

+1.

And like expected, the Senate's revisions on the tax bill are retarded. But hey, at least they're upping the deduction for seniors to $6,000.

I would absolutely love if every person in Congress were forced to take a financial literacy test. Our future is in these people's hands lol.

Is it bad I sorta want one? I love the attention to detail: January 20th, 2025

All I can say is wow. Thanks again for the answers.

I haven't watched much of Steve Ballmer. I probably should though.