Ulti

I’m good with that and have a high cash position…. I thought Carney was going to be better than that…. He sounds like our governor from California… a )@)& progressive trying to rebrand himself to run in 28. But I guess a leopard can’t change his spots

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/buyout-and-venture-capital-investing-in-japan-and/id1454112457?i=1000703428265 I thought that the podcast on visits to Shanghai and Tokyo to check out investing on a local level was very interesting…. Did not realize how advanced manufacturing was in China…. I mean I did but the podcast added some color to a black and white picture

Viking …. As a Canadian , maybe you can help… after reading this , a variety of other sources and thinking ( which is a dangerous thing for an old man) ; …..I can’t help but believe no matter who is elected that the Canadian economy is going to do well over the next 3 years….money is going to flow back into Canadian pensions etc from the US…. And the government is going to buildout to achieve some type of independence from the USA…If so , how does one invest accordingly? VCE? I’m long Suncor and that’s it..( I’m also looking at Latin America and Brazil for different reasons)… Curious mind wants to know ( and I could totally be wrong)

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-memo-by-howard-marks/id1521551570?i=1000702912353 don’t know if this is a repost… I’ve always enjoyed reading Marks thoughts

+1 …. Too many “ rules of the road” are in flux… it will be interesting to listen / read 1q 2025 results / QandA of various businesses and how they respond in the current environment.. as an aside I’m older with 42% cash … defense wins championships

Kinda like Ray Dalio https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/03/predicting-a-financial-crisis/

Bingo… and having invested for a long time… I find this is still a dynamic system

I think what is missing in the discussion ( or maybe not) is risk tolerance, age and hedges…much easier to hold into positions that are under 30+ % if your hedges with say 20-40 % cash….im curious as to how you look at risk management G at your age.. and has it changed over the years with wealth accumulation .

https://indianexpress.com/article/world/tsunami-coming-chinas-global-exports-9930207/ With China’s overcapacity in industrial, low spending on its citizens and increased military spending…. I’m not sure what else the current administration can do to protect our dwindling industrial base…And as the article mentioned, other countries are coming to the same conclusions…..it’s just unfortunate that the tariffs approach is similar to the DOGE approach…. Private equity slash and burn rather than the thoughtful surgical…. And it’s a shame that we have alienated our traditional allies… a coordinated approach would have been much better as an aside , I kinda wonder how the TPP would have done https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Pacific_Partnership

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-roots-of-trumps-global-trade-war-with-martin-wolf/id1038108799?i=1000701917432 Podcast is from 4-2. Martin wolf is the FT chief economics commentator . He discusses, among other topics, that the trade imbalances with other countries ,that the US is targeting, is no accident.

https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/will-careless-stupidity-kill-the Trump an company might have used ai generated tariff numbers.. brilliant

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/canadas-trans-mountain-pipeline-lowers-forecasts-amount-oil-it-ships-2025-04-02/

https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/tariffs-trump-canada-elbows-up-gordie-howe-gretzky-f347e223 Gotta say I love Canada and Canadians

https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/wrestlemania same stuff again open and free access

My bad I did not… however I do not have a subscription and was sent to me with open access… usually they send it with a summary and cut it off… and ask for a subscription…also they clearly label subscriber stuff in their Doomberg archive page paid as below.. This full article was not labeled paid.. However thanks for pointing it out and I appreciate your supervision

interesting take on how auto tariffs will work WrestleMania In an effort to save US automakers, will Trump put them in a chokehold? DOOMBERG MAR 30 READ IN APP “All this negativity that’s in this town sucks.” – Rick Pitino Like so many legendary college coaches before and since, Rick Pitino’s jump to the pros was marked by an inability to replicate the success he enjoyed on campus. During his three-and-a-half-year tenure as head coach of the Boston Celtics, the team never reached the playoffs, racking up a disappointing record of 102 wins and 146 losses. After a particularly tough home loss to the Toronto Raptors on March 1, 2000—Vince Carter hit a buzzer-beating three-pointer to win by two—a bitterly frustrated Pitino took to the podium to face the press. What followed was an iconic rant that will forever be part of Celtics lore: Not quite to plan | Getty Bird, McHale and Parish—basketball phenoms at the core of the 1980s Celtics dynasty—fit into a broader renaissance of optimism that permeated US culture during that period. Ronald Reagan’s “Morning in America” was marked by a booming economy, soaring stock markets, and falling interest rates. The Los Angeles Lakers were showtime, Big Macs were cheap, and Mike Tyson burst onto the boxing scene with an electricity not felt since the times of Cassius Clay. In geopolitics, the Soviet Union was stared down and the space race was won. Heck, even US automakers got in on the action. Famed business icon Lee Iacocca saved Chrysler with the launch of the K-car platform, while Ford introduced the massively successful Taurus. Pitino had hoped to reprise that upbeat energy. Judging by Hulk Hogan’s repeat appearances in Donald Trump’s campaign, the president clearly yearns to relive the heady days of the Reagan era as well. In a story brilliantly recounted in the February 14, 2025 edition of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, Trump made a huge splash in 1986 with an audacious plan to rebuild the Wollman skating rink in Central Park, individually accomplishing what the city had pathetically failed to do. The project’s success burnished his personal brand. Four decades later, neither the man’s energy nor the controversy surrounding him show signs of fading. Sometimes you can just do things | Getty A return to those glory days—the US manufacturing sector still made stuff back then—was a pillar of Trump’s winning platform in 2024, along with the contention that no self-respecting superpower should be without a vibrant set of assembly lines churning out muscle cars. A growling engine built by American hands and powered by plentiful, domestically produced gasoline is undoubtedly a great and seductive vision. In Trump’s admittedly blunt view, the rest of the world has ripped off the US for decades by flooding the country with cheap exports while maintaining protectionist policies at home. Such a simple diagnosis comes with an equally straightforward prescription: dramatically ramp up tariffs to level the playing field. For the automotive sector, however, these tactics are likely to backfire. In fact, they could even call into question the solvency of the very companies he aims to help. Let’s explore the six main reasons why. We begin with the observation that Trump’s main weapon—restricting access to the US domestic vehicle market—no longer delivers the leverage it once did. Total light vehicle sales in the country haven’t grown meaningfully in decades, with 2024 numbers barely reaching levels seen when Mike Tyson first became world boxing champion in 1986. Once the world’s dominant producer and consumer of cars and trucks, the US now accounts for less than a fifth of global unit sales. Additionally, the Big Three domestic players—General Motors (GM), Ford, and Stellantis—already hold roughly 40% of US market share, while foreign competitors like Toyota, Honda, and Hyundai-Kia operate sprawling assembly plants across the country, presumably insulated from the impact of tariffs. Beyond the diminishing importance of the US market, there’s also the question of what it even means to “manufacture” an automobile in modern times—and whether any tariff regime imposed by Trump can deliver meaningful benefits to domestic champions. A new car today might contain 30,000 parts or more, each with its own complex supply chain spanning multiple countries of origin. A state-of-the-art assembly line operates as a symphony of just-in-time international logistics, making sweeping tariffs practically unworkable. Here’s more from a recent report by CBS News: Trump would respond by noting tariffs could be avoided by moving operations to America—but such a massive reshuffling requires extensive product requalifications. Becoming an approved supplier in the auto industry is no small feat, and stringent testing is typically conducted on a factory-by-factory basis. Harder than it looks | Getty Third on the list of challenges is the aggregate friction of the transition. Our contacts in industry have been privately sounding the alarm that even the threat of tariffs is pushing the US economy toward recession. Major supply chains—including many critical to the automotive industry—have all but seized up, a dynamic not seen since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic. The velocity of the proposed policy changes isn’t helping matters, as it’s impossible to know what the next few hours will bring, let alone the coming days or weeks. Perhaps out of fear of becoming the subject of a future Truth Social post, few executives are speaking out publicly, but Trump’s inner circle must be aware of the impending crunch. Another reality to be confronted is that other countries can retaliate—perhaps none more so than China. In an unsigned letter to the Trump administration, Tesla warned it would likely face retaliatory action if a tariff war erupted. Tesla’s most important factory is located in Shanghai, and the company relies heavily on China throughout much of its supply chain, including for many of its all-important battery packs. China is equally critical for GM, representing the company’s second-largest market for vehicles by unit volume. Although not directly tied to Trump’s tariff initiatives, another headwind facing the industry is the complete about-face the new administration has executed on electric vehicle mandates. While many in the industry may quietly welcome the shift, the return to business as usual leaves billions of dollars in stranded investments—capital spent in vain to satisfy the unworkable diktats of previous administrations. Worse still, California remains resolute in its push to phase out internal combustion engines, setting the stage for years of regulatory and political battles. Ford, for its part, has already begun writing down prior investments and signaling that EV virtue strutting is no longer a top corporate priority: This brings us to the final (and perhaps most existential) issue facing US automakers. In many of the technologies that matter, China has parlayed decades of unfair trade advantages into what now appears to be an insurmountable lead over the global competition. We have long warned of this developing crisis, and one can’t help but wonder whether the Chinese have reached escape velocity. News of a major battery breakthrough from BYD last week stunned many in the industry who doubted it could be real. Having observed China’s playbook for decades, we don’t share such doubts: Trump’s intent to revive America’s manufacturing swagger is admirable and important. He’s correct in diagnosing the problem and remains one of the few US politicians willing to attempt a meaningful course correction. But like Pitino struggling with the Celtics long after their heyday, Larry Bird seems vanishingly unlikely to be walking through that assembly line. Yao Ming seems a more likely

I get it thru Costco when they have it on sale … Comvita Its occasionally on sale for $99 for a 2 pack .. And I’ll try the tea.. I agree about Ocha but again have a hard time finding 1st cut shincha

https://www.bluezones.com/explorations/sardinia-italy/ Thats awesome… I hope you hit some of that genetic lottery…

Last couple of years have gotten 1st cut shincha from Ocha … not to be confused with O-cha .. whom I’ve ordered from the past … I’ve always been partial to the shincha because of the taste and the high concentration ( I think ) of catechins… but I’m finding it much harder to find especially the organic… before that I bounced around to different spots like ikkyu .. and again they would probably call me a “ Jane you ignorant slut” green tea drinker because I take a pinch or two of tea out in my containers add the 130’ water and Manuka honey.. is there a particular tea you like from Hibiki?

https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/american-foreign-policy-is-being American Foreign Policy Is Being Run by the Dumbest Motherfuckers Alive The fuckwittery on display right now by Trump's foreign policy team boggles the mind. Daniel W. Drezner

Go DOGE …. Article in Washington Post…. Tax revenue could drop by 10 percent amid turmoil at IRS Staff cuts and disruptions related to the U.S. DOGE Service have officials bracing for a sharp loss of revenue. Jacob BogageUpdated March 22, 2025 Senior tax officials are bracing for a sharp drop in revenue collected this spring, as an increasing number of individuals and businesses spurn filing their taxes or attempt to skip paying balances owed to the Internal Revenue Service, according to three people with knowledge of tax projections. Treasury Department and IRS officials are predicting a decrease of more than 10 percent in tax receipts by the April 15 deadline compared with 2024, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share nonpublic data. That would amount to more than $500 billion in lost federal revenue; the IRS collected $5.1 trillion last year. For context, the U.S. government spent $825 billion on the Defense Department in fiscal 2024. “The idea of doing that in one year, it’s hard to grapple with how meaningful of a shift that represents,” said Natasha Sarin, president of the Yale Budget Lab and a senior Biden administration tax official. The prediction, officials say, is directly tied to changing taxpayer behavior and President Donald Trump’s rapid demolition of parts of the IRS. Senior tax agency officials issued detailed warnings about those outcomes to the incoming Trump administration before the president took office, according to records obtained by The Washington Post. Follow Trump’s first 100 Days The administration has moved to fire nearly 20,000 agency employees, specifically targeting new hires in taxpayer services and enforcement divisions. It’s already dismissed more than 11,000 workers at the agency, though some of their statuses are unclear pending fast-moving court cases. The IRS has dropped investigations of high-value corporations and taxpayers, according to several agency employees involved in those inquiries, because it’s had to triage resources to keep internal systems operating. Two agency commissioners have resigned since Trump took office. The IRS’s head of compliance, Heather Maloy, stepped down effective Friday. The IRS publishes weekly filing season reports that show the number of returns received and how officials are processing refunds. Those reports show the IRS has received 1.7 percent fewer returns this year compared with the same point in the 2024 filing season. That percentage is narrower than the projected decrease in total receipts. But the agency also makes more detailed, nonpublic revenue projections based on IRS measurements of scheduled payments from already filed returns and outstanding balances relative to similarly situated taxpayers in previous years. Those calculations take into account the number of filers who have paid their balances or are owed refunds, those who have scheduled payments by the April 15 deadline, those who have taken extensions, and measurements of annual noncompliance. That gives the agency deeper insight on the amount filers are paying. The IRS also has separate measurements of business tax receipts. Corporations must pay first-quarter estimated tax on April 15. “The thing that I think is really alarming is if this data ends up telling a story about how this filing season is evolving, and you’re seeing it happen in real time,” Sarin said. The IRS has noticed an uptick in online chatter from individuals declaring their intention to not pay taxes this year or to aggressively claim credits and deductions for which they are ineligible, the three people said — wagering that auditors will not examine their accounts. After this report was published, a Treasury Department spokesperson called this story “sensational and baseless” and said claims from The Post’s anonymous sources “should be dismissed out of hand.” The Treasury spokesperson requested to remain anonymous, citing a department policy preventing them from speaking on the record. Representatives from the IRS did not respond to requests for comment. Other dynamics could explain some of the projected drop in revenue, experts say. Natural disasters, such as the Los Angeles-area wildfires, could lead taxpayers in wealthy areas to postpone filing until October, said Timur Taluy, CEO of tax-prep service FileYourTaxes.com. And during times of economic turbulence, some taxpayers typically opt for a penalty-free six-month filing extension. But neither would entirely account for such a large drop in revenue, experts say, especially after the 2.8 percent growth the U.S. economy experienced in 2024. Tax officials entered filing season expecting to collect more revenue that last year, the people said, because of economic growth and the lack of significant tax law changes. “There’s no reason to anticipate this based on the economic year we had in 2024,” said Dorothy A. Brown, who studies tax policy and racial disparities at the Georgetown University Law Center. The results could mean the government has to borrow more money to cover the cost of federal services. The IRS collects 95 percent of federal revenue each year. A shortfall in tax dollars, if Congress doesn’t cut spending to match, would drive up the national debt, which already sits at $36.2 trillion. IRS officials have weathered well-documented showdowns with Elon Musk’s U.S. DOGE Service and immigration officials over access to highly sensitive personal and business financial data. But tax filing season has generally proceeded smoothly this year, Taluy said, though IRS data is beginning to show weak spots in agency operations. Roughly 85 percent of callers to IRS helplines are reaching a representative, compared with 93.6 percent at this point in 2024, according to records obtained by The Post. Senior IRS officials attempted to warn the Trump transition team about the effects of planned staffing and budget cuts at the agency, according to other records, obtained by The Post through the Freedom of Information Act. On top of the DOGE-driven workforce reductions, congressional Republicans also repealed $20.2 billion in resources for the agency as part of a recent government funding law. “Aggressive reductions to budget and personnel capacity risk backlogs, delays, reduced receipts, and diminished capacity to build next generation digital capabilities,” according to a January presentation given by tax officials to the incoming Trump administration’s Treasury Department team. The presentation — a 68-slide deck — included recommendations for how the Trump administration could gradually decrease IRS staff numbers without disrupting tax administration. It called for digitizing tax-filing processes and automating the work of some employees in the customer service and compliance divisions. “The IRS is pursuing a vision of digitalization and automation which will increase the speed and quality of its processes while reducing the overall IRS footprint,” the presentation states. “In the past we have increased our staffing levels to improve taxpayer assistance, tax assessments, and collection processes. However, once modernized, our staffing footprint can be reduced while maintaining performance.” But the presentation also compares current IRS operations to an “assembly line,” noting that much of the agency’s productivity is dictated by its staffing levels. “We tried to make clear this is a logistics operation. There’s a science to it. If you put 30 people on the line, this is how much you can accomplish today. If you put 15 people on the line, you can accomplish half of that,” said one person involved in the meeting, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss it publicly. “You can change the productivity over time with a smaller input of personnel, but not this filing season. This is where we are today.”

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/we-study-billionaires-the-investors-podcast-network/id928933489?i=1000700418387 Kuppy interview… always interesting

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/mar/18/supreme-court-john-roberts-trump all about John Robert’s Citizen United and broad presidential immunity rulings

I’m currently holding 30% cash and , maybe a silly question, but I curious how other investors think about their cash position.. I realize this is age, risk tolerance,…. yadayada related … and what are your vehicles of choice for “stashing “your cash ( besides the safe at home) Morningstar opinion https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/how-use-cash-portfolio

https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/rise-up-europe excellent article on what Europe can do to become a superpower again