Ulti

https://www.reuters.com/business/canadas-cp-rail-shuts-down-railroad-workers-strike-2022-03-20/ Does this matter to oil sands?

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/100-Oil-Is-A-Wakeup-Call-For-Canadian-Producers.html

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indias-oil-imports-us-rise-amid-criticism-russian-purchases-2022-03-19/

Thanks SD for your patience and education. A few more questions ... and realize I'm asking in self interest... I hold directly CTRA, SU and a comm. fund \about 10% of portfolio. I'm trying to figure out risk\reward and whether to add at an appropriate moment. How reliable is the ME in supplying Europe and storing NG for them ? Europe trusted the Russians and.... It seems like you would want to directly hold as much Ng as possible on your own soil. And isn't the transition to Green going to take years and years? It seems like from your comments that Asia ( ex china) is left holding the bag with a longer supply chain. Are they going to make this up from N. America ? Aren't Canadian pipelines being underbuilt\stopped at this time.. esp. to the coast for easier transport? I know you have made comments in the past about being a very nimble Comm. investor. Is Pierre Andurand correct and thinking this is a long term cycle? Maybe this is Mr. Buffet's thinking as well with his recent increase in OXY. ( and I have a lot of BRK.b shares ). And when I read the news should I be looking at everything thru an energy \comm lens ? Israel does have NG. https://www.jta.org/2022/03/09/global/israeli-president-visits-turkey-for-talks-with-erdogan-in-sign-of-renewed-relations

And I did misstate : I don't know if 90% storage =90% need. I doubt it but it sounds like they are planning to store a shitload more than they usually do.

Quote from commision: The Commission intends to present by April a legislative proposal requiring underground gas storage across the EU to be filled up to at least 90% of its capacity by 1 October each year.

Also seems like the activist never stop. https://variety.com/2022/politics/news/mark-ruffalo-royal-bank-of-canada-coastal-gaslink-pipeline-1235206695/

SD, How realistic that Europe can store 90% of its lng needs every year ? Opec +\middles east\ seems to be in the driver seat but they are not cranking it out. I read somewhere that lng shipping form the US is like 5 o'clock traffic with all the tankers going to Europe ( at the expense of asia ). https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_1511

totally agree...also after hearing Pierre Andurand's podcast this morning, I think its going to be an ugly '23 winter for Europe.

https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/europe-can-weather-halt-in-russian-gas-supplies/

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pierre-andurand-on-how-we-might-get-%24200-a-barrel-oil/id1056200096?i=1000554342070

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/03/oil-prices-and-inflation

https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

Some ideas about us energy policy https://doomberg.substack.com/p/a-serious-proposal-on-us-energy?s=r

I think that we are not so much at an inflection point , more like an acceleration of trends. Technology trends have allowed autocratic governments to control their populations better and easier.The trend of less workers will continue and is similar to the clean energy trend..it will take many years for technology to catch up with labor shortages. I admire all the nimble and thoughtful investors \traders on this board....I think that is what its going to take for capital preservation\ growth in the future.( rather than passive investing\indexing). Kotok made some interesting obeservations on visiting china nowadays. https://ritholtz.com/2022/03/transcript-david-kotok/ https://usmarkettoday.com/will-inflation-stay-high-for-decades-one-influential-economist-says-yes/ https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/is-the-west-laissez-faire-about-economic-warfare/ This is just human nature: It is likely that the expanded use of sanctions will spur countries to pursue models of economic development that increase friction for the global economy. These moves might be conspicuous, such as when countries pursue policies ranging from protectionism to autarky. But they could also be more subtle. China is an outlier in the global economy because its embrace of markets was circumscribed. Chinese policymakers realized that to win their own economic war — the battle for development — the iron fist needed to guide the invisible hand. Other states may come to that same conclusion, particularly if China fares better than more marketized economies at weathering the coming storm.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/maintaining-americas-nuclear-deterrent/

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-09/niall-ferguson-ukraine-invasion-struggles-could-be-the-end-for-putin?srnd=premium

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-lng-exporters-emerge-big-winners-europe-natgas-crisis-2022-03-09/

Off topic https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-08/china-considers-buying-stakes-in-russian-energy-commodity-firms?srnd=premium

https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/from-pledges-to-action-europes-move-away-from-russian-fossil-fuels/

I've agreed with below for a long time; which is why I'm cautious about new domestic drilling. As an aside, I'm more attracted to companies like CTRA; clean balance sheet, lots of reserves and for now a constraint on capital expenditures, new drilling and acquisitions. Munger in 2013 il is absolutely certain to become incredibly short in supply and very high priced .. The imported oil is not your enemy, it's your friend. Every barrel that you use up that comes from somebody else is a barrel of your precious oil which you're going to need to feed your people and maintain your civilization. And what responsible people do with a Confucian ethos is suffer now to benefit themselves and their families and their countrymen later. The way to do that is to go very slow in producing domestic oil and not mind at all if we pay prices that look ruinous for foreign oil. It's going to get way worse later ... The oil in the ground that you're not producing is a national treasure ... It's not at all clear that there's any substitute [for hydrocarbons]. When the hydrocarbons are gone, I don't think the chemists are going to be able to just mix up a vat and create more hydrocarbons. It's conceivable that they could, I suppose, but it's not the way to bet. We should spend no attention to these silly economists and these silly politicians that tell us to become energy independent.

https://www.sfweekly.com/culture/zyn-next-juul/ Nice layman overview

https://tobacco.ucsf.edu/swedish-match-misrepresents-fda-authorization-its-snus-effort-get-exemption-california-flavor-ban I think you have more to worry about from politicians, anti tobacco groups and maybe the fda?

Rereading book by Daniel Pecaut. Cliff notes of 30 years Annual meetings. Pearls like in 1986 stating that inflation is political not economic (politicians printing money ). Nothing new, but neat from a historical perspective.

I've been thinking about this since China has become more aggressive with Taiwan. Though Intel is cheap, I sold because of the massive capital expenditures they are going to do in the next few years. It should do well over a 5 year period. I've been monitoring SOXX... Taiwan Semi is under 4 %of the portfolio. Might not get the homer you would with options but can participate with the upside \ like the XLE.