Ulti
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Everything posted by Ulti
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https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/why-its-so-hard-to-get-the-oil-taps-turned-back-on/id1056200096?i=1000567103730
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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519091-berkshire-hathaway-hit-to-book-value-could-be-drastic-but-buying-opportunity#scroll_comments
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https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/may-housing-starts-all-time-record interesting info on starts\completions of single and MF
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https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates
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Ha I thought is was more like tipping your favorite girl at the strip club
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And I hope Buf. is feeling the same
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And Crypto isn't even shown ?
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https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/jim-chanos-on-why-some-of-the-worst-hit-parts/id1056200096?i=1000566614549 I thought the pod was interesting. At the 17 minute mark , Chanos discusses how MF and reits in general are overvalued in a normalized earning environment...for MF 2-3%cap rates pre capital spending with approx 5 % 10 years. I thought that most in the space have locked in low rates on their debt and if construction loans are more expensive that means less product on the market and rents stabilize at the current higher rates. What am I missing?
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https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/alex-gurevich-on-global-macro-investing-strategies/id730188152?i=1000559873335 Seems like the global macro boys\ both Druck and Alex above ( who thinks ahead 12-24 months)agree with you.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-manhattan-real-estate-moving-data/
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http://www.gasprocessingnews.com/news/freeport-lng-fire-cuts-key-source-of-us-gas-supply-to-europe,-asia.aspx
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https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/What-Is-Fueling-The-Surge-In-Gasoline-Prices.html
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Its unfortunate that there has been so much bickering on both sides of the political isle ...#$%^ them all.....infrastructure, power grid and some rational thought on energy upgrades(pipelines) would have been much better done with cheap money over that past few years...At least Berkshire has been doing this... And get rid of this esg shit\ carbon tax so autocrats don't get the $$ is the way to go. https://www.thebalance.com/carbon-tax-definition-how-it-works-4158043 however ,how do you penalize bad actors who violate to carbon tax rules?
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https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Environmentalists-Challenge-EU-Backed-Projects.html
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Oil is absolutely certain to become incredibly short in supply and very high priced. The imported oil is not your enemy, it's your friend. Every barrel that you use up that comes from somebody else is a barrel of your precious oil which you're going to need to feed your people and maintain your civilization. And what responsible people do with a Confucian ethos is suffer now to benefit themselves and their families and their countrymen later. The way to do that is to go very slow in producing domestic oil and not mind at all if we pay prices that look ruinous for foreign oil. It's going to get way worse later ... The oil in the ground that you're not producing is a national treasure ... It's not at all clear that there's any substitute [for hydrocarbons]. When the hydrocarbons are gone, I don't think the chemists are going to be able to just mix up a vat and create more hydrocarbons. It's conceivable that they could, I suppose, but it's not the way to bet. We should spend no attention to these silly economists and these silly politicians that tell us to become energy independent. Charlie Munger over a decade ago
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https://www.currentargus.com/story/news/2022/06/04/nm-oil-and-gas-leases-could-reversed-after-court-ruling/7487820001/
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https://modernfarmer.com/2022/06/global-wheat-supply/
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Morning LM, a few things; Currie comes across to me as very well informed( and rehearsed ) and doesn't seem to be selling anything... he recommends the BCOM( which covers energy,ag ,metals etc.) when asked for an investment recommendation in the commodity space and talks about how he wants to own the commodity without owning the company (paraphrasing). He also rec. a heavier weighted energy\ commodity fund for those who wish more energy exposure. He does an excellent job explaining the current supercycle as he sees it, contrasting it with past history and gives his opinion on what it will take to solve complex issues. Whether I'm listening to interview with Phil Hodge pine cliff energy\Shubham Garg\Greg Jenson Bridgewater\ Javier Bias from Bloomberg\ Pierre Andurand\or Jeff Currie( and there are many more) or I'm reading this board...everyone is talking their book. I'm just a woefully ignorant investor trying to adopt your name with my reading (haha). All the post here as well as the podcast that I posted have helped this novice investor stay the course in investing in risky area of commodities.
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https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/what-this-money-manager-learned-traveling-in-covid/id1460047965?i=1000565092461 some fluff but interesting about the Covid shutdown and gov emphasis on local manufacturing/ also driven by the young
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https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/jeff-currie-on-the-volatility-trap-keeping-commodity/id1056200096?i=1000557582351 still the best explaination of what’s going on in the commodities market..” long term contracts solve shortages”. This is already starting to happen in Nattie…. And the long term contracts all producers to invest
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https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/bull-market-rhymes
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https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/energy-chief-says-canada-could-133922364.html
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-premier-gives-dire-growth-100938085.html Hopefully Xi has got enough on his plate but who knows
