Pellom

In a lot of ways, the most remarkable thing about this is that it happens so infrequently. Most periods of time in American history are littered with politically motived assassinations. One would think it should theoretically hold true that because we are so aware of everyone's opinions at all times in today's connected world, these types of things would be more frequent.

It's really hard to judge them because they have so much cash that the basically have to stick with S&P 500 companies, but the general dislike I have, and others share, is that they trade too much and are too focused on quality. Essentially, they don't have the patience to sit around and do nothing until the market allows for better opportunities. Expecting them to do that is probably unfair, though, considering they are both likely jockeying with each other and the old man.

I thank you all for your hearty analyst work. I assume you all are mostly right, build in a reasonable 10-20% downside margin of safety, and come back to "just keep buying." Really, truly, this thread and this forum is an indispensable resource for me.

4 or 5, I'm not sure. It was a good run.

Update: down 12% today. The enterprise is in shambles.

Great call.

I also think there is a significant set of analysts who won't look at it because it is Canadian.

I can't remember who said it (I probably read it on this board) but there was some thinking when they started buying that there is a ton of value in having that many satellites in the sky. I can't exactly remember if the thesis was, "the satellites can be used for other industries/sold/leased", or, "the federal government will have to stop allowing new satellites at some point, creating scarcity." I don't know -- above my head.

I wonder if they may go the Markel route in the investment portfolio -- more selections at smaller commitments. Buffett didn't like diversification, but there may be no choice (unless you want to buy the whole of something).

It's not even crypto! It's penny biotech stocks. I'm keeping a list to check their prices in a month.

Yes, apparently that is his "day trading" money. It's super easy! Luckily, I saw the total amount of his brokerage account, so I'll be able to see the bottom fall out when it happens. He's a good guy - and pretty smart - so this has really opened my eyes to how easily young-ish men can fall into the Reddit rabbit hole.

Loading into treasuries. My boss is bragging to me about his day trading adventures. He says he's "mapped out the next 300 days" and "if I get a 3% return each day, I'll have one million dollars." Figure the investing gods are sending me as message to be patient and take some risk off the table.

If you get the management and incentives right, you just have to be in the ballpark on specific numbers.

Trump is who he is, but it's interesting to me that his self preservation instincts aren't working in the same way they did in his first term. He was deathly afraid of the market going down and people viewing him as anything other than a business genius. Some of this change is natural, of course, because he's not trying to get re-elected. But much like the conversation with Biden last year, I think it is fair to wonder if Trump is not in total control of his faculties at this older age.

This is genuinely one of the most befuddling market rebounds I have ever witnessed. I can't find any good reason for it other than "this stuff was down so we're buying it."

I'll bet this is right. At the 2024 AGM he mentioned the only thing they were looking at at the time was a Canadian company.

All the insiders (meaning the board) have been pretty clear that Greg has been running the company for about a year now. I think Warren decided he wanted Greg to get the public credit for what had already been operating procedure.

Greg is a phenomenal operator, and I will assume those skills translate to large acquisitions. He'll know what's worth buying and what isn't. What I'm most curious about is how big Ted and Todd's piece of the equity portfolio will be allowed to grow and how they manage it going forward. They are obviously great investors, but far more active than Warren and Charlie. It'll be interesting to see whether or not Greg can or will slow them down.

Yeah, Bill is nuts for that suggestion. I'm surprised he didn't suggest Bitcoin.

The four minutes of applause, while certainly a show of appreciation to Warren, was also the crowd affirming his commitment to never sell any Berkshire shares. No one in that room is going to dump the stock.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/greg-abels-challenge-lead-berkshire-into-a-new-era-without-the-buffett-touch-5d725906

Market feels as risk on as ever. Only thing I can find to buy is Exor. New money coming in to our managed accounts has been allocated 50% Exor 50% cash/short term bond ETFs.

I like Mohnish as well from an educator's perspective. However, the "shameless cloner" thing is frustrating given his underperformance. Buffett told he and Guy Spier directly that they shouldn't charge a management fee if they were just going to copy him. Underperformance can be understood if you are attempting to forge your own path. In his specific case, he would have done more good to tell his clients to buy Berkshire directly.

Hilarious given Guy Spier's latest blog post: https://substack.com/home/post/p-162031750?source=queue

My armchair thesis is a lot of the current sell-off is the market using any excuse to burn off the overvaluation (speaking from an SP500 viewpoint.) Although some will argue the market is forward looking and pricing for 6-12-18 months from now, my guess is there will be more pain ahead once companies actually report slowing growth due to tariffs and uncertainty. No point in trying to time it, though. I'm buying when and where I can.