Milu

Thankfully we have a very easy way to check how it will work out as tesla report deliveries every month. I think the current forecast is for 2m vehicle deliveries in 2025 so let's check back at end of year to see how well or badly things worked out.

Yes it's a bit strange alright, I don't recall much discussion or judgement about the personal lives of all the other CEO's discussed on this Investment forum. I'm sure Buffett, Munger, Bezos, etc all have various stories or rumours about them but I don't see how that warrants any discussion or relevance to the merits of their companies as potential stock investments.

Seems like twitter is almost back to being valued at it's original $44b purchase price, obviously he overpaid a lot at the time, but will be fun to see the heads explode when it gets to $100b. The man just continues to win no matter what people think of his personality or politics. Sure he is putting some people off and probably losing some customers for Tesla, but on the flip side he's probably attracting another group of people who traditionally wouldn't have bought Teslas.

I still hold some ETH but am gradually converting this over to my much larger bitcoin holdings. I’m not fully convinced in the future of the asset, at least from a price growth standpoint. I’m not sure I buy the it’s a currency argument and also wouldn’t want it to be a currency. People who want to participate in china will invest in stocks and shares of Chinese companies, sure they may have to exchange their dollars or euros in RMB to do so but its not like they are holding RMB for long term compounding purposes, they just hold it for a few mins before they buy the stock.

Belgium, LOTB.BR

I'm curious how they calculate Free Cash Flow? For 2023 for example I get cash flow from operations of €154m which if you adjust for the €2m of working cap adjustment and €18.8m of maintenance cap ex gets me €133m of free cash. Not sure why they choose EBITDA(u) rather than operating cash flow.

Ya I've been quite tempted too. I love everything except the price, and I have been one of those people who have made a number of valuation exceptions that have paid off in the past. Not sure whether to push my luck or not. Doing something like a 1-2% position and letting it ride might not be the worst idea.

Been on my watchlist for a long time but just can't get my ahead around the price people are willing to pay for essentially a delicious biscuit company.

A machine can now do this in millisecond for every company that has financial data on the web. Ben Graham and Buffett had an edge in the early days when you actually had to manually filter through this info and nobody else was doing it. Any body who thinks they have an ‘edge’ by doing something like this is fooling themselves.

Haha yes. I do find it quite funny how all the 'experts' in the FT and Economist were dissing Milei's policies when he came into power last year, and now that they have started to work they have backtracked massively. Same with Bukele in El Salvador. Surprised people put any weight in anything they say really. I'd trust the opinions of Jamie Dimon, Stan Druckenmiller, Buffett etc over some random journalist/economist. As you mentioned earlier tariffs aren't some new thing and they exist in just about every country in the world to some degree, yet when trump uses them panic ensues.

The thing that I wonder about is that all the supposed experts and talking heads claim that trumps tariffs will mainly end up hurting Americans. If that’s the case then why bother retaliating, just let them hurt themselves.

Sounds like you are enjoying life either way!

I've been wondering about fellow investors here on the board, which ones of you really enjoy the actual process of investing and which ones just care about the proceeds? Personally I really enjoy researching companies, assessing market dynamics, evaluating management trustworthiness, making bets (often contrarian) where you are staking a position on a future view of the world that may or may not transpire. It's almost like the worlds greatest game where you are completing against the smartest people in the world to make as high a return as you can on your correct decisions and as low a loss as possible on the incorrect ones. I'm somewhat addicted to the game of investing and I think even if some Genie could guarantee some high annual compound return by going 100% index fund but the only caveat is you can never research companies or make another investment again I'm not sure I would take it. I'm aware that this is totally irrational but I genuinely just like doing this for the mental stimulation, the money generated on the back end is obviously a pleasant outcome. Just something I've been thinking about a bit and wanted to see what others felt.

So the question is, would this impact your position size or confidence in continuing to hold your bitcoin?

I wouldn't get too far ahead of yourself with too much talk of a bubble burst. Obvioulsy today there looks like there will be a bit of a pullback but you have to remember that Google at Meta are trading in the 25-30 PE range, hardly 'bubble' levels. Microsoft and Apple a little higher in the 30-34 PE range. This is not the 50+ PE range of 2000 tech bubble, no matter how much people would like this to be the case. As I said above Nvidia will likely be hit hard, maybe a few others in that space, but I don't think the growth of big tech is going to be stopping anytime soon.