Milu

$5m CAD or €3m EUR depending on where I end up living.

Northvolt round 2

The country one lives in and it's cap gains rate has a massive influence on the optimal investment approach. I assume that John lives in Denmark which I believe has a 42% cap gains rate (highest in Europe, possibly the world). Ireland where I live is also in the upper end (33%). With that level of tax any kind of short term buy and sell strategy is doomed. Not having many tax sheltered options here in ireland is counterintuitively a potential big benefit in that it forces me to be super strict about any new position I get into as I likely want to hold it for decades to avoid having to sell and pay such a high tax rate. And also during times where you have doubt in a position, but are sitting on substantial unrealised gains it results in you being super cautious before ever deciding to pull the trigger on a sale. I think if I had the ability to get in and out of positions tax free like in those type of accounts some people have it would potentially shorten my time horizons and may even result in me having worse after tax returns than just doing my buy and hold in Ireland and paying the cap gains whenever I do sell a long term holding. It's quite a fascinating topic.

That's great, congrats. Similar story for me, about 15 years of investing for me, last 5 years have also been the best compounding so far (23% CAGR on the overall portfolio, while having cash balances between 25-50%). Some similar stocks too (META, GOOGL, LULU, BRK) but also Amazon, Apple, Tesla and BTC have helped. Cash percentage is down at it's lowest level ever for me at 23% which is new for me. No immediate plans to sell any existing holdings so I expect my cash percentage will go up or down based on how the markets go over coming years. It has been quite pleasant having a large cash holding and being able to pick off any screaming offers the came up (Berkshire at $180 during covid, Meta sub $150, Amazon $85 in 2022, Lululemon at $250 this year. This seems to suit my personality, just relax and read for the majority of the time and then every couple of years go on a binge when things go on sale. I'm still waiting for the 'big one' (50%+ multi year downturn a la 2000 and 2007) but the central banks seem to flood the system with so much cash these days that they've succeeded in stopping that for the time being.

My completely unscientific investor's intuition is that things 'feel' a little frothy at the moment. Crypto markets are on the tear again, memecoins and memestocks are back in action. Stock markets hitting high after high. Expectations for a golden age during trumps presidency. Credit spreads quite low. I'm not going to be selling any of my positions but I always start to get a bit fearful during these times. Not doing too much stock research either. Might just put the feet up for a couple of years and let me existing holdings continue higher and then come back once the next crisis kicks off. Cash as a percentage of assets has declined from about 30% to 23% over the past while purely down to increases in my stocks and other investments.

Rough weightings as of today, Cash 24%, Crypto 17%, Meta 16%, Tesla 13%, Alphabet 8%, Lululemon 5.5%, Amazon 5.5%, Nintendo 3.5%, Dominos 3.5%, LVMH 2%, Gold 1.5%. I swear I'm a traditional investor by heart I just has some big wins on some of my larger positions and didn't do much selling. It's been quite the ride these last 5 years. 24% is actually my lowest cash percentage ever.

That one of the main reasons why I have avoided investing in Chinese companies. Sure their numbers may looks good in their financial statements but I don’t have feet on the ground in china, don’t know who the founders are or feel like I have the ability to get to know them well through podcasts or earnings call, and no real sense of how their perceived or actual moats are increasing or eroding.

I always get a sense of smug satisfaction anytime Berkshire follows me into a position. First time happened with Apple and now dominos. Probably wasn’t Buffett through as not sure he cares to concern himself with small $500m positions.

I think Bitcoin should be added to Politics and Religion as one of those topics that shouldn't be discussed in polite conversation, it's too much of a heated topic. It's interesting because the two people who influenced my thinking the most in life are Charlie Munger and Nassim Taleb, both who have a strong hatred of Bitcoin. I think in Taleb's case he really hate the bitcoiners a lot more that the underlying technology and he's right that there are a lot of unsavoury folk who have latched onto the asset, perhaps gradually getting weeded out in each successive bear market.

No wasn't directing that at you and I don't think you are being that hard on the bitcoin folk either. Having skeptical people trying to get to the root of things is where I get the most value on these type of forums, having an echo chamber of 'bitcoin to the moon' isn't gonna do anyone any favours. I'm more than aware that the future is not guaranteed and many unpredictable things can happen that could derail the bitcoin story or any other investment story for that matter. I like to have nice civil conversations where people are willing to push back on each other's beliefs without getting too emotional. It's just investing at the end of the day, not life or death

As with most things in life it isn't black or white. The current stereotypes on this forum is into two groups of people, you are either a boring old-school value investor focused on cheap cigar butts, or a YOLO Bitcoin Bro going all in on Crypto. Neither of which I suspect are fully accurate. In reality the majority of the forum are in some middle ground. It's also ok to hold two different viewpoints at once, for example I hold some bitcoin as a means of protecting some of my purchasing power and because I believe its demand will continue to grow, while also believing that the stock market is ridiculously overvalued. I also have a rather large cash pile that I would love to be able to deploy in the next bear market, whenever that is.

Just wondering if any of my fellow bitcoin holders have any exposure to Ethereum? I have a little bit that I bought in 2020 (as a small gamble, rather than having any particular vision). It's up about 14x on my original price so have unrealised capital gains (33% cap gains rate in Ireland) I would need to realise if I sell it all. It's still only about a 2.6% of total portfolio position so I'm between two minds as to whether to just let it ride or just sell it down for cash and take the 33% hit.

That's a good approach and would have worked out well for you. I did all my buying over a 6 month period from April 2020 to November 2020 at prices of €7k-15k per bitcoin. Haven't made a trade since as I have a bit of a mental block about averaging up on an investment. Old habits die hard!

I wouldn't recommend now and don't think you should sell any of your existing stock to do so. If you are not fully invested and maintain a cash or fixed income percentage then maybe you could look to buy a small amount (1% of portfolio position), but that should only be done after you have read some of the books listed previously (Bitcoin Standard, Broken Money) to get a general understanding of the potential of the technology. Nobody should ever buy something they don't believe in as they would be unlikely to hold on during bear markets.

Yes, you are more likely right, I probably hedged my estimate a little bit to not put off the skeptics too much. I'm trying not to give them too much ammo to jump on even though I mostly agree with your viewpoint Any of these prediction about it becoming a global reserve currency, or having a part in everyone's portfolio are almost too grand of a pronouncement, so I tend to just stick with the Digital Gold comparison for now as it's the easiest one to 'get' for the people who are curious.