coffeecaninvestor

I was pretty frustrated with the performance of the actively managed part of my portfolio the last few years. Thought about it the last few days and decided to wipe the slate clean for 2025. My goal for 2025 is to be less active, and more opportunistic. I tend to put cash to work too fast, and rather than waiting for a great opportunity I put in a so-so opportunity. I also found managing, and paying attention to a ton of small positions is super inefficient. I'll stick with 3-5 positions. Index Funds - 72% Cash - 14% RTO - 8% JNJ - 6%

Congrats! That’s a killer return. Hope to have a stretch like that one day. Did you have a lot of cash going into 2019/2020?

Decided to take some proceeds from CNI and dip my toes into JOE. Will DCA into this slowly unless we get back into the 30's then I'll buy more aggressively.

That's why WEB is the GOAT. I think that probably part of the reason why he has a little bigger cash pile now.. Given his wealthy shareholder base he doesn't need to swing for the fences in what feels like an aging bull market. Personally, the biggest risk isn't that my portfolio gets cut in half temporarily its that I am in a position of weakness, and sell at the bottom due to panic. We have saved enough that I can just let the current capital compound for the next few decades and we will retire just fine. Therefore, I figure having a little cash around is just going to make me sleep at night better while I wait for a favorable pitch.

Antidotally I saw the same thing in my friend group. Every party I went to back in 2021 everyone was buying shitcoin and bitcoin (this is a group who does virtually zero stock investing otherwise),and saying it was going to the moon. Then in the crash they became disenchanted, and haven’t said a word about it until very recently. But even now they aren’t as enthusiastic as they were then. The convo started up and died quickly because the missed the rip off the bottom for the most part. I will be curious to see how long it takes for those animal spirits to rev up again. I do feel like it is frothy, but have no idea how it will play out. I haven’t sold any significant amount of stock, but I do plan on letting a lot of new capital accumulate in some short term MMA/bonds versus trying to stay fully invested.

Thoughts on the Canadian rails? I was pretty focused on CNI since I owned it. They seem to be in a tougher situation with the new administration and trading at a premium to US rails. If on shoring continues I could a see a more favorable return from US rails.

Decided to get out of CNI and the tiny bit of CVS I had.

Small adds to CACI, MKL, CI, and IQV over the past week.

Sold NSRGY to free up funds to buy more JNJ and RTO. Just a little more optimistic on JNJ over Nestle after reading the Q's. The new CEO seems fine, but I think JNJ has a good pipeline, and an easier path to growth.

Obviously it’s impossible to know what he is thinking, but I was reading The Warren buffet Way in it he breaks down the “permanent” holdings. He has in the past sold some of them such as GHC when he felt like long term prospects are not as good as. That would probably be my bet. I think he likes management enough to hold a good size position, just not as big as it had gotten.I think it’s good for the old man to be flexible. I’m sure they will find a good use for the capital. It just might not be on the timeline we would want.

I am inclined to hold it. If you own it now it’s mostly because you like the collection of businesses and less because WB is going to make a needle moving investment. Structurally Berkshire has a lot of advantages, and so I think will do reasonably well relative to the S&P. Most of the BRK my family holds is in a taxable account and I’ll sell only if something radically changes for the worse. I’d actually be more concerned if Ajit leaves.

I think the Canadian rail roads are attractive. CNI has really ramped up the buy back over the past few years. It will be interesting to see how the CP/KC merger plans integration plays out. I haven’t followed it too closely but I should start.

It’s been awhile since any railroad discussions have come up. Any thoughts on them here? CP and CNI look interesting. I own CNI might add some more. It’s been hit by a ton of downgrades despite September volumes and price seeming to be increasing.

I think the one thing that held me back on HIFS was the fact they have expanded operations to other cities. I agree they are good underwriters, but I wasn't too sure how these new loans would perform. I read all their letters back as far as they go, and I agree mgmt has done a great job here.

I've owned HIFS and BAC in the past. Kind of kicking myself for not buying some HIFS when it was trading below BV. Although with all the regulations, and crazy stuff that has gone on in the banking industry I have kind of moved banking into the too hard pile.