coffeecaninvestor

I heard about it on just about all value investing podcasts or letters. Smead capital just put it in their latest letter. I am always skeptical about the opportunities with the most consensus that are constantly touted.

I was recently debating what to do as well. Having the concentration of risk in the S&P was bothering me. I diversified globally, and added some cash/bonds to hedge against any psychological risk of me selling. I think an easy step for the average person would be to trade out of the S&P 500 ETF into something like VT, and have 10-20% short term bonds.

Yeah it’s a starter, I think it’s trading at a fair but not cheap price.

Started a position in LMT for a family account that I am managing. Hoping it gets cheaper.

If you wait for things to be all clear then the real opportunity will likely be missed. I think the margin of safety is the best I can find with this high of quality business that is relatively simple. They have a good position in a good industry, and if I had to bet (which I am) I think it will likely be the same or better 5-10 years out. I can underwrite a few crappy years up front and still come out with a decent return with no multiple expansion. I'm trying to not over think it since that leads to sucking my thumb and doing nothing. Similar to what I see happening in the JOE thread (you can lump me in the over analyzing JOE group), I was hoping it get to a price where I wouldn’t have to over analyze things so much.

More RTO

Sold all of JNJ to buy RTO.

Yes, I completely agree. If you can’t think for yourself then just buy an index fund. There’s no shame in that it’s a perfect way to get rich enough to retire. I just think Buffett has different sets of rules, values, and objectives than the individual investor. I think when you ride coattails you need to understand that, and not take anyone’s actions or words as gospel.

There are in my view a few factors that none of us have that Buffett has, and I think it’s irrational for anyone to judge someone negatively for having done what he did. He is the steward of capital for many shareholders, and at his ripe age does not have the same time to recover any losses for them if he were to make a huge error. He also is one of the largest insurance companies and besides being regulated he needs to be 100% sure he can make good on his promises. I think there is a large difference in how Buffett would invest his own money and how he runs Berkshire. We can continue to argue how he screwed up, but it’s a waste of time.. sure he might have made a few more percent if he bought versus sold, but Berkshire has done more than fine since the bottom despite the “mistake” (even though both Buffett and Munger admit they make tons of mistakes).

You are welcome. I recommend 2x speed. I do think that what they say about market timing is true, and it definitely helps that they have a constant flow of cash pouring in so they can buy new positions with fresh capital. They do not have to constantly buy and sell large holding especially if the business is a great one like AXP or KO. I think the size of their positions is a factor they might have sold at extreme valuations that mathematically didn’t make sense. I found it interesting more than once they had trouble buying when stocks were cheap because of concerns about their insurance operations and not being able to use the float. I wonder if that was a consideration when the market plunged due to Covid.

I’ve re-listening to the 1999-2007 AGM and pairing that with the letters. Pretty great and timeless stuff in those years… I am not sure what else an aspiring investor needs other than to absorb that over and over again. Hoping his letter this year is a great one. One of my biggest regrets is not having attended a meeting when Charlie was alive. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/berkshire-hathaway-annual-shareholder-meetings-since/id1445276006

I am a 35 years old underwriter. I started investing when I was ~15 years old.. I think my first stock was some shitty clothing company (Jones New York). I knew nothing but was really interested in the stock market for some reason (probably due to my grandpa we discussed stocks all the time prior to his death). I graduated with a finance degree at a state university, but hated school since it was all theory other than one of my investment classes where as a group we got to invest $100K that was funded by the college. I worked 2 jobs through college, and took some of that money to invest along the way (I think I held AT&T through the GFC not realizing it was the sale of a lifetime going on). After graduating I had a few family members that wanted me to manage their retirement, and as soon as I got my first "real" job I started growing my snowball. The markets have ripped higher since I graduated (2011), I think basically I matched the index, maybe slightly worse due to holding too much cash. Now, I think about the future often (3 kids), and really wanting to create some lasting wealth decided last year to pull the trigger and join this board so I could learn from some people older/wiser than me. Since mostly everyone around me has very little interest in investing, and I've had no other "mentors" other than my grandpa, Buffett, and Munger I was drawn to this forum having stalked it for a few years. When the $50 fee went into place I knew it would only be a matter of time before this cheapskate ponied up.

OTCM comes to mind

I was pretty frustrated with the performance of the actively managed part of my portfolio the last few years. Thought about it the last few days and decided to wipe the slate clean for 2025. My goal for 2025 is to be less active, and more opportunistic. I tend to put cash to work too fast, and rather than waiting for a great opportunity I put in a so-so opportunity. I also found managing, and paying attention to a ton of small positions is super inefficient. I'll stick with 3-5 positions. Index Funds - 72% Cash - 14% RTO - 8% JNJ - 6%

Congrats! That’s a killer return. Hope to have a stretch like that one day. Did you have a lot of cash going into 2019/2020?