MungerWunger

youtube link, audio only:

When the world is in turmoil, he appears on CNBC

Welcome to the club

Software stocks tanking again I think from this:

What are some of your best ideas right now?

Giverny new interview:

https://stratechery.com/2026/agents-over-bubbles/ " It is agents, however, that may strike the fatal blow to Dediu’s argument. Specifically, I noted above that what made Opus 4.5 compelling was not the model release itself, but changes to the Claude Code harness that made it suddenly dramatically more useful. What this means is that model performance isn’t the only thing that matters: the integration between model and harness is where true agent differentiation is found. This is a very big deal when it comes to figuring out the future structure of the AI industry and where profits will flow, because profits flow away from modular parts of the value chain — which are commoditized — and flow towards integrated parts of the value chain, which are differentiated. Apple is of course the ultimate example of this: its hardware is not commoditized because it is integrated with their software, which is why Apple can charge sustainably higher prices and capture nearly the entirety of the PC and smartphone sector profits. It follows, then, that if agents require integration between model and harness, that the companies building that integration — specifically Anthropic and OpenAI (Gemini is a strong model, but Google hasn’t yet shipped a compelling harness) — are actually poised to be significantly more profitable than it might have seemed as recently as late last year. And, by the same token, companies who were betting on model commoditization may struggle to deliver competitive products."

nice choices!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/annatong/2026/03/05/cursor-goes-to-war-for-ai-coding-dominance/ "Cost remains an ever present challenge. Cursor’s larger rivals are willing to subsidize aggressively. According to a person familiar with the company’s internal analysis, Cursor estimated last year that a $200-per-month Claude Code subscription could use up to $2,000 in compute, suggesting significant subsidization by Anthropic. Today, that subsidization appears to be even more aggressive, with that $200 plan able to consume about $5,000 in compute, according to a different person who has seen analyses on the company’s compute spend patterns." What would happen to usage if they stopped subsidizing their users

nibbled on some SABR for fun + some FFH

Greg at 13:40

He thinks we're far away from AGI (his definition is AI that can do anything a remote worker can do)

The interviewer sold his company to Google in the past

Response from Citadel ... https://www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-insights/2026-global-intelligence-crisis/ Unrelated but Citadel pays 300k+ USD to new grads straight out of school

Meta AI director failed to control her AI assistant

Wow, some of this stuff sounds ridiculous to me ... I guess network effects aren't a thing anymore. I am shocked by the market's selloff from this. "Coding agents had collapsed the barrier to entry for launching a delivery app. A competent developer could deploy a functional competitor in weeks, and dozens did, enticing drivers away from DoorDash and Uber Eats by passing 90-95% of the delivery fee through to the driver. Multi-app dashboards let gig workers track incoming jobs from twenty or thirty platforms at once, eliminating the lock-in that the incumbents depended on. The market fragmented overnight and margins compressed to nearly nothing."

Trending on twitter right now and causing another big AI loser selloff: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic

More AI victims today (NET, PANW, CRWD, ZS, FTNT, GTLB):

https://fortune.com/2026/02/13/when-will-ai-kill-white-collar-office-jobs-18-months-microsoft-mustafa-suleyman/ "Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI" https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/06/google-microsoft-pay-creators-500000-and-more-to-promote-ai.html "Companies including Microsoft and Google have paid creators between $400,000 and $600,000 for long-term partnerships spanning several months, CNBC has learned." Why do they need to promote AI so heavily if white collar jobs are gone in just 1.5 years from now?

Nice discussion here between @joinyellowbrick and @ArenaManCapital: https://x.com/joinyellowbrick/status/2022055862206882011?s=20

Jeff Dean: