Luca

"Common prosperity for all people" is an "essential feature of Chinese-style modernization and distinguishes it from Western modernization," Xi said. Western-style modernization "pursues the maximization of capital interests instead of serving the interests of the vast majority of people," Xi said. "Today, Western countries are increasingly in trouble," Xi said. "They cannot curb the greedy nature of capital and cannot solve chronic diseases such as materialism and spiritual poverty." https://www.voanews.com/a/china-s-xi-calls-for-patience-amid-economic-slump-/7228724.html http://en.qstheory.cn/2023-07/05/c_899816.htm "The world today is undergoing both transformation and upheaval; changes unseen in a century are unfolding at a faster pace; human society faces unprecedented challenges. Unity or split, peace or conflict, cooperation or confrontation -- these are the questions raised again by our times. My answer is this: the people's wish for a happy life is our goal, and peace, development and win-win cooperation are the unstoppable trends of the times. Third, we should focus on practical cooperation and expedite economic recovery. Promoting economic growth is a common task for all countries in the region. China stands ready to work with all sides to implement the Global Development Initiative, keep to the right direction of economic globalization, oppose protectionism, unilateral sanctions and the overstretching of national security, and reject the moves of setting up barriers, decoupling and severing supply chains. We should make the pie of win-win cooperation bigger, and ensure that more development gains will be shared more fairly by people across the world. We need to enhance the connection of high-quality Belt and Road cooperation with development strategies of various countries and regional cooperation initiatives. We should further promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation, speed up the development of port infrastructure and regional and international logistic corridors, and ensure stable and smooth functioning of regional industrial and supply chains. Ten years ago I proposed the Belt and Road Initiative, and on its tenth anniversary, China will hold the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation. I welcome your participation. We should work together to broaden the Belt and Road as a "path of happiness" benefiting the whole world. The Chinese people are rallied behind the Communist Party of China to pursue Chinese modernization. It is the modernization of a huge population, of common prosperity for all, of material and cultural-ethical advancement, of harmony between humanity and nature, and of peaceful development. With these main attributes, it has created a new form of human advancement. China hopes to share new development opportunities with SCO members and all countries around the world through its achievements in modernization, and together make the world a better place." Doesnt sound horrible and I even agree on the failure of the west to achieve common prosperity over the last 30 years.

That statement is certainly true, It's not only about being contrarian here but about the probability of positive development over the long term, which I think is certainly more likely than a return to a system that has not worked before. On top comes that many people exited these markets which creates additional value.

I knew this is how i was able to get you!!!

Aha, thats truly understandable to me

Thats why i have a bias for prosus, they have the close contact to tencent management and come in obviously with a shareholder value perspective. The buybacks for prosus where initiated with tencent together if i remember correctly. Will foreign investors do well? I think the chances are increasing, even china securities watchdog asks for buybacks and cares about the stock market: https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3173959/chinas-securities-watchdog-renews-call-firms-buy-back Yep! appreciate your posts a lot @tnp20, good to hear i am not completely alone here, although it feels like i am getting a larger discount, buying when almost everybody doesnt is psychologically difficult. And I completely agree, competition is fierce, retail got more difficult. Still Alibaba is cheap, so is JD. What chinese stocks do you own besides Baba? Cheers guys and happy evening!

Because that was probably one of the biggest humiliations for China, maybe still is and that they learned incredibly much since then, have world-class scientist and universities, people in the administration that have advanced economics degrees etc. They wont go back.

A fully planned economy doesnt work obviously. They are not returning to it though and I think the regulations they are passing and planning to pass will improve Chinas trajectory as a whole.

Dont dare me!

And thats where we disagree. In my opinion we dont live under capitalism, we have STATE capitalism eveywhere, also in the US and also in China, with differing strenght of intervention. Pure capitalism would self implode and will never work, unregulated markets will self implode.

Thanks a lot for sharing, i will let you know!! :))

Complete state planning doesnt work obviously, we also dont have that right now. But a government that interferes with the markets was a key to success for china.

Earlier this year, for example, the Ministry of Education announced a plan to “cultivate masculinity” in schoolboys, requiring schools to increase the number of gym teachers and promote more sports. The initiatives are as much about health as they are about culture.

This should make our republican americans happy and positive about china: This year, the regulators are also ramping up restrictions on vulgarity and gender-fluid content for children. Video platforms have also been ordered to scrub content with effeminate men or “other abnormal aesthetics.” Enforcement of heteronormativity is also on the rise. In July, WeChat permanently banned nearly all public accounts created and run by LGBTQ groups at Chinese colleges for no specific reason. In November, LGBT Rights Advocacy China, an influential nonprofit organization, announced it was “suspending all operations” for an indefinite period of time. Bilibili — one of the few pockets of gay content online — has lately begun censoring itself.

And some interesting cultural crackdown happening in china too: https://thechinaproject.com/2021/05/10/iqiyi-cancels-season-finale-over-milk/ The talent show encouraged viewers to buy a sponsor’s milk and scan the QR code inside the bottle caps to support their favorite stars. Obsessed fans brought up milk in bulk but dumped the milk into drains. Some calculated that 270,000 bottles of dairy products were poured directly into the sewage. Since then, regulators banned “idol development programs” altogether. In August, the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC), China’s internet watchdog, announced a ban on celebrity rankings. It followed the removal of 150,000 pieces of “harmful online content” involving fan groups, and 4,000 fan accounts, according to a Xinhua report. For stage actors, a new wave of behavioral guidelines was rolled out in February to ensure actors and actresses “love the motherland,” “abide by social morality,” and “uphold the prestige of Chinese culture,” among others. Misbehaving superstars such as the actress Zhào Wēi 赵薇 and Zhèng Shuǎng 郑爽and the singer-actor Kris Wu (Wú Yìfán 吴亦凡) have had their social media accounts shut down or investigated. The preeminent video streamer and influencer Lǐ Zǐqī 李子柒 , an emblem of Chinese bucolic and simplistic living recently appeared on CCTV after disappearing for three months to parrot the official rhetoric of the party, which includes such buzzwords as “rural revitalization,” “common prosperity” and “guiding youths…away from becoming influencers.” Beijing has fundamentally altered the kinds of content Chinese youths can consume this year. In September, Douyin, the Chinese version of TikTok, imposed a forty-minute time limit on video consumption for children under 14. Young viewers can now only view “prepared” content such as historical information, science experiments, and patriotic clips.

I sold Micron at slight gain and added proceeds to Nintendo. I am trusting that Li Lu has a better understanding than me of micron and that the situation with China is not favorable for the DRAM market.

From a monetary policy perspective, a global cryptocurrency area is unlikely to be an optimal currency area, as this would lead to an inability to adjust exchange rates within the ‘area’. The result would thus be a crypto-monetary policy (ie its supply protocol) that would be consistently too tight and too accommodative for different countries at different times. Other major risks that could undermine trust in cryptocurrencies could arise from market concentration (which could lead to the falsification of the ledger and to ‘double spend’ issues), from the manipulation of the value of the currency via insider trading and from the reliance on unregulated intermediaries necessary to use cryptocurrencies. For what its worth, some thoughts regarding crypto. Its a very complex topic. PC-10_2018_2.pdf

There are very stable currencies like the swiss frank, they also have a decent government. Then we have zimbabwe with 65% annual inflation for more than a decade. So there we have one factor made clear: Smart state. @Dave86ch How will this function with bitcoin globally if humanity continues to grow. Lets say we will have 20b people population by 2060, we made Mars habitable too. Now the currency couldnt grow with the population, how does that play out with bitcoin? Our analysis shows that the volume of transactions carried out using cryptocurrencies is still insignificant compared to those carried out using official currencies. This implies that, at least for the moment, cryptocurrencies are not real contenders to replace official currencies. However, cryptocurrencies do have interesting characteristics that make them attractive in ways other currencies are not. They are truly global in nature and easily accessible to potential users. The US dollar and possibly the euro are global currencies, but might not always be as readily available (for instance, if a government wants to restrict their use in its jurisdiction). Also, the fact that they are not backed by a government protects them from political influence and the threat of manipulation. Our second issue is how cryptocurrencies might alter the nature of monetary policy and its application. The management of traditional money by monetary policy authorities (ie central banks) is partly automatic (or at least rules-based) and partly discretionary. A cryptocurrency’s protocol is operated by a predefined algorithm, making its management fully automatic. It is currently difficult to imagine how algorithms could be fully effective in dealing with complex decisions in an uncertain world. More importantly however, the lack of a real person behind the automatic decision-making implies that such algorithms could not be held to account. This is an important shortcoming because the value of a currency is a crucial component of a society’s ability to prosper and therefore decision making in relation to that currency is a power that should be carefully monitored. Monetary policymakers who are granted that power are part of the package of national policies that are subject to monitoring and review. Monetary policymakers can ultimately be dismissed if deemed necessary

That is true, a government has the ability to ruin the currency. But with bitcoin or crypto there is also no control. I think the government control is still preferable but maybe @Dave86ch can prove me wrong.

I can and do look past it, give it a try!

He literally said betting against is a good idea. Nobody forces you to invest into china and into the "communists" haha!

The picture doesnt look that bad if you factor in that the multiples and valuation in china are very low at the moment.

Which policies? Which specific policies? Can you please share links/data and be specific?

If you only look at china through one specific lens, people will see what they want to see.

There was so much money made in china since their industrial revolution started, this is just not true man!

That the state played a big role in the Chinese economy was obvious since so long. The tech crackdown was very valid: There were many problems with the Ant IPO: 1. Ant labels itself as a Fintech Player but functioned similarly to a bank, it did not have the regulatory requirements that banks needed to have which was reason enough to stop the IPO. 2. It was insufficiently capitalized and could have had systemic risks 3. Credit scoring had an opaque algorithm which was unverified which is another systemic risk problem. On top Jack Ma did his complains about how stupid these regulations where etc what not. That guy has too big of a mouth. Crack techdown timelines: 1. Antitrust probes: Fines for Baba, Meituan, Didi, Baidu, JD, Tencent etc because of: Failing to disclose mergers, signing exclusive contracts,misleading marketing tactics and merger irregularities. This didnt happen in the US yet, most people dont even bother because they dont think the US will do something about it but we will see. 2. Data Security: Didi IPO suspension etc, worrying about data being leaked to foreigners. 3. Disorderly capital expension, Growth at the expense of public interest: Wow! I have never even heard this in the US! Nobody cares! I posted how bad the US grades in Mathematics are for students, maybe there needs to be a crackdown on these media giants that teenagers watch endlessly. Maybe crackdown at the fast food industry in the US too! Paying a kidney to get medicine necessary for daily life? US healthcare gladly takes your money! ------- There were many good regulations: https://www.reuters.com/business/china-market-regulator-boosts-food-delivery-worker-protections-2021-07-26/ 1. Improving living conditions of delivery drivers, more pay, forcing insurance and relaxation of delivery deadlines etc https://www.reuters.com/technology/jdcom-cut-senior-executives-salaries-by-10-20-2022-11-22/ 2. Senior managers cutting salaries so that employees in total have improved benefits, wow! Maybe its time management in the US takes a paycut too so that the average worker might buy himself something nice too, managers salaries grew by 1460%! https://www.epi.org/publication/ceo-pay-in-2021/ Chinese President Xi Jinping last year launched a renewed drive for "common prosperity", as an effort to reduce income inequality that threatens long-term economic growth and even the legitimacy of Communist Party rule. All of this is a net win for china. That Xi will make the third term is new but i dont think this will meaningfully change chinas trajectory. Because there was a global pandemic, full lockdowns and then running into 5% interest rates.