alertmeipp

couple problems I see: - those FRE and FNM gov's pfds have10% coupon on them, so they will suck up any possible profit from the portfolio. - they will to run down their book somewhere down the road. - This implicit-gov-private mortgage model may not be continued in the future. Having said that - I have a less 0.5% position on them. Their spreads are wide now given they are all in the pinkie land.

3 major blows to 3 largest holdings with couple months - one mining, one biotech, one O&G. And decided to roll the remains to average down on the biotech - which become a penny stock now. LOL. Had I decided to roll the the remains to the mining or to the O&G instead - I would be closer to retirement now. :)

I think that Derrick guy is greatly overrated. http://www.canadianbusiness.com/columnists/larry_macdonald/article.jsp?content=20070927_125949_4128

Compare him to Seth Klarman.. wow.. that's over the board.

I wouldnt be complaining. Well maybe double that by then, but 1.1 aint bad at all Compare to some board members here, 1.1M@35 is probably mediocre and somehow low. Investing is a tough business; we can easily feel we are better than what we are. It took me 5 years to get back the $$$$ I lost in 06.due to being overly confidence. Don't count your chips until you leave the table.

35 with networth of 1.1M isn't bad at all.

nice to get more cash. :) Wonder if FBK could be benefited from this: http://www.canadianbusinessjournal.ca/business_news/canadian_business_news/06_01_harper_doles_out_millions_to_help_pulp_and_paper_11.html

The case the author mentioned is a pretty unique in China actually, especially in Beijing. But the general concept is right, more paper and thus pulp will be consumed as the world get developed. RBK is a tough business to understand and forecast - management is helping on that neither.

FBK looks to me to have safer and cheaper play - pps lagging greatly to its peers since the famous right offerings.

interesting. looks like many of the board members have a good year. congrats

interesting graph, still have lots to learn in investing.

From the chart, I see inflation coming (year 6). Then, Fed tries to pull the liquidity out which then cause deflation. (year 7).

I would just go common. Just want to remove the time variable completely. Who knows when Tom will decide to make another acquisition with shares.

with so many thinking a sell off is coming - i doubt it will happen. Econ is improving and I don't think stocks are not expensive.

wow.. that's good news. But remember, they have FBK too. ;D

Too cheap to sell, but man, it's frustrating. Trading in substantially discount to peers. Will add some more soon.

and where do you see the 13 leap?

I think they are being conservative here. Plus, I assume the asset sales will reduce production # slightly. I really don't have a problem with the convert. The new Mississippian play could potentially be a home run for them. I think most of the $ raised goes to this new play. Their initial #s from there looks very promising. CFO leaving is a non-issue, he actually said some good things about the company in the CC - he won't do that if he gets forced out or if he smells trouble. Re: hedge: "Since our last call, we've added over $775 million to our hedged book. Over half of the amount is crude oil in 2013 and a portion is natural gas in late '10 as well as '11 in the first half of '12. We currently have $2.3 billion of revenues locked via swaps and that could easily write to over $3 billion in the next three to six months. " I wonder if they will do something like CHK did with their natural gas production. i.e. monetize a big chunk of their future oil production. Re: analyst modeling: I think it's getting pretty straight forward, especially if they hedge more of their production. (Well, at least for the next few quarters.) I have been adding all day Friday.

>>Avg. list price (in C$) was 1039. Sale price 878. Discount (1039-878)/1039 = 15.5% Thanks for showing me the math. ;)

i haven't check this Q. But didn't someone just post about 1k listed price and 880 selling price.. doesn't make the discount 12% for this Q? CFX discount used to be lower than SFK ... maybe they panic and often more discount in last Q?

the discount was actually getting better.. was like 15% before. CFX has similar discount, but less.

It's NOT good business as it's a cyclical one. Plus, they don't have a vertical model so they have weak control on costs. CFX.UN is the best in the sector, they are doing the right things, low cost - manage to be profitable even at down-turn. However, it's just cheap even when one factor in the above. It's a sucker play I admit.

i think the bright side is that the market is pissed again because the company is trying to switch to oil as fast as possible and with 80%+ oil , the market won't be pissed again. Cash flow break even in 13 - I think they will get bot out much sooner than that. The majors have lots of cash sitting around earning nothing.

It's cheap but holding it has been a bad move.

i hear you. but OTOH, I think they should grab the money while they can. 7% yield vs 50% return is good business. The new play will be turnkey. I can feel TW was pissed when analysts keep focusing on volume but missing the fact that oil generate much better margin going forward. In a month or two, we should hear some assets sales news which should fill in the puzzle on how they can support their cap ex going forward.