alertmeipp

Check out CFX's result, with all those money spend on defending this takeunder and now the 8.5millions, FBK's financial will look awful. >>Odds are ABH will need to eventually bump their bid to get to 100%, but not until after the offer expires on May 04. Obviously it is now a new game. If they up their bid, would the ppl already tender get the better deal? 100% is way off base btw.

If that is all correct and documented then it looks bad on FFH/Pabrai. However, if Maybe FFh genuinely worked out that getting ABH shares was a better deal than selling to Mercer. Beats me how they would come to this conclusion, but what do I know. Minority investors were still given another choice and collectively they did not take it. That was the part I hope u read up on. I agree CFX is cheap. I may switch to either it or MERC after I somehow get out of FBK.

If that is all correct and documented then it looks bad on FFH/Pabrai. However, if Maybe FFh genuinely worked out that getting ABH shares was a better deal than selling to Mercer. Beats me how they would come to this conclusion, but what do I know. Minority investors were still given another choice and collectively they did not take it. >> Minority investors were still given another choice and collectively they did not take it. Do you know about Steelhead?

Pure conjecture. It could have resulted in a race to the bottom as well. If Mercer is such a white knight, where were they at the start. They seemed real quiet for an awful long time. There was nothing stopping Mercer from putting out an offer a day or week after the Lockup deal. Mercer was trying to get it as cheap as they could as well. So here you have it. FFH/Pabrai agreed to a deal with ABH. They obviously saw more value with a locked in deal with ABH than an unknown with Mercer. Minority shareholders were free to entertain any other bid. For some reason, not enough of them tendered to Mercer. I am guessing they were hoping for more from somewhere (where is a good question), or a bidding war. ABH was not biting, and neither was Mercer. So, now you have some pissed off minority shareholders, who are selling their shares for lower than the ABH bid. ABH no longer has any reason to honour the deal, so you can look forward to the share price dropping steadily. No market for the shares is exactly what would have happened had FFh and Pabrai dumped their shares. It would have taken them 600 trading days to get rid of it all. I bought fbk in 2009 at 0.35 per share. Dont tell me it couldn't retrace its steps. Canfor is still on sale today. 1) the bid price is not $1 anymore as the ABH pps has dropped since. 2) We need 98% of the remaining shares to tender which is highly likely. One thing we hope we can all agree on, MERC's offer was superior one.

I think the main thing to take from all this, is how the regulators and Fairfax view minority shareholders rights. Or they really wanted out. Get over it. I sold out of this between last winter 011. and december. I lost money but I didn't sit around with an outsized position whining. Uccaml, Please read up. They didn't just want out. Well that was obnoxious, Alert. Of course they wanted out. They made a bad investment years ago and wanted to get out. FFh tried everything with this company. This was the best course of action at the time. I have been in and out of SFK before FFH was ever involved. Had FFh and Pabrai tried to sell these shares on the open market what would the price have been - I am betting 0.30. I didn't say they don't want out. I said "They didn't JUST want out", they want out AND they want to make sure their other LARGER investment get FBK cheap. And intentionally or not, hurt the minority shareholders' right to get the better offer.

I think the main thing to take from all this, is how the regulators and Fairfax view minority shareholders rights. Or they really wanted out. Get over it. I sold out of this between last winter 011. and december. I lost money but I didn't sit around with an outsized position whining. My takeaways from this: 1) dont invest in commodity companies that pay no dividend. I have held varying sizes of Canfor Pulp, since spring 09, and probably made 50% on dividends alone. BTW, its on sale now, again. The dividend will rise and fall with distributable cash, which should stabilize some as the power is bought on line. 2) Dont invest alongside FFH. Buy FFH stock directly. Dump a stock the day FFH initiates a rights offer. 3) LessthanIV is correct about anchoring. Along the way we all built a thesis about the intrinsic value of SFK. In the meantime the price of pulp tanked. Look at Mercer to a comparable example. 4) You want to play the game, prepare to be burnt. It isn't as if FFH or Pabrai made buckets of money on this one. It isn't the first time I have been burnt and it wont be the last. My circle of competence is increasing constantly, but at the same time, the number of crap companies I refuse to invest in also inceases. I guess if stating the obvious qualifies as whining to you fine. We also agree to disagree, as to if the regulators dropped the ball badly and showed what a waste it is even having them. I've lost money and made money on lots of things, but never had the value so blatantly pilfered by insiders. I avoid a lot of companies were I have no respect for the ethics of certain large shareholders. Just another one to add to the list, lesson learned. I agree this is a case where minority shareholders being ripped off by the big guys. Basically few companies can just team up and buy company A and then B, sign lock-up agreement with A to tender B to A at a below-IV value, force B minorities to either tender or to own a company without control.

I think the main thing to take from all this, is how the regulators and Fairfax view minority shareholders rights. Or they really wanted out. Get over it. I sold out of this between last winter 011. and december. I lost money but I didn't sit around with an outsized position whining. Uccaml, Please read up. They didn't just want out.

If u like ABH, just go ahead to buy it; ABH pps going down just means the deal value goes down.

no, the share price is fixed @ $15+ for the deal.

Not following ur logic there

Since Abitibi has extended the offer date to the 4th of may I would guess that the Mercer bid is also going to be extended. Going to be interesting to see how this is going to play out. With Resolute holding 48% it's going to be hard for Mercer to get 50.1%, but not impossible. It sounds like from the language in the press release from Fibrek, Mercer's Bid lasts 3 business days longer than any extended offer from ABH. "In addition, the terms of the support agreement between Fibrek and Mercer provide that Mercer will extend its offer to a date that is at least 3 business days later than any extended expiry date of the Abitibi unsolicited insider bid." So the Mercer bid, due to the ABH extension, expires May 9th. Just keeps dragging out... Yes, we have got to wonder where the additional 2% tendered to ABH comes from.

SD, hope you are right, the fact that merc has not pulled out yet is a good sign that they still want fbk, I agree that if they extend as well they will eventually win 50%+.

We are always so optimistic! What do u think ABH is waiting for? MERC to drop first? If MERC somehow got 50.1% (possible but not likely), ABH is done (tendering back to MERC would look dumb on them). I say if ABH were to offer a superior bid, they will do so before Friday just to ensure they win (5% chance). After MERC drop, they can offer maybe 1.15 to get up to 67%.

All, we won't know more until this Friday unless MERC plays hard ball and lower their min. condition or pulls out... ABH will need to pay up to 67% unless they want to drag this one for couple years but then FBK can be a very different company. Btw guys, having ABH as major shareholder isn't necessarily a -ve long term.

Invert: What if ABH / Steelhead are still silently on the same team. The goal is to get ABH to 67% on this bid so the majority of the minority includes all these shares and the vote works in their favour. ABH buys up enough stock to acquire the 50.1% on their own. That kills the MERC bid. Then, Steelhead is free to tender their shares to the ABH deal without any repercussions as their is no longer a competing offer. If Steelhead has acquired more stock in the mean time they may be getting closer to the combined total of 67%. EDIT: Thinking this through further, ABH can only buy in 5% max and must report. As well, Steelhead sits at just under 5% and should it go above ... it must report. ... I wonder if this "secret" meeting that took place was surrounding ABH's need to get to 50% on their own before Steelhead tenders? Love to be a fly on the wall at that meeting. I bet Steelhead is talking to ABH now to get more $ for their shares or share they will tender to MERC. ABH can't afford to drag this longer, none of minority shareholders are going to tender to them with their stink bid.

We need 98% of the remaining to tender. Tough as we will have some dumb ass who don't know w going on

Good luck, we will need that. I doubt they will up their bid by that much tho.

Exactly, if I were Steelhead, I would demand higher price from ABH (end up getting more ABH shares for them as well), very rational thinking in this irrational "bidding" process..

1) I think you find out next week that Steel head has tendered to ABH. 2) That gives ABH control and kills the MERC deal. 3) ABH will extend the offer again under the same terms to allow remaining shareholders to tender without the competing MERC offer in the way. For those comfortable in following FFH et al into ABH, I think the proper decision was to sell FBK and immediately repurchase ABH over the last two days. FBK could be had for around $.98 after the Supreme Court Decision was made. ABH traded below $13. ABH stock is priced at $15.83 in the deal. So, this manual transaction gives you 22% more ABH shares not including friction costs. Volume was there to support larger trades. Just under 9M shares in the last 2 days. And, at least you could enjoy your weekend knowing you upped Prem by 22%. ;D (Hopefully, ABH doesn't reprice the deal above that! :'() ABH's deal has been repriced since its pps keep dropping after the offer. Its deal value is less than 1dollar for sure. Even if this is all stock deal, I would rather own MERC than ABH but not like we have a choice. Steelhead will tender to ABH? But their cost basis (99 cent) is higher than ABH's deal value now (92 cents) - Hopefully, they won't take the 8% lost over a 30%+ gain?? But they own way more ABH than MERC+FBK combined. If I were Steelhead, would I take a lost of the rest of the ABH shareholders? My hope/bet is they won't tender on Monday, then ABH raises their bid to make them and rest of the 15%+ owner tender. If they don't raise their bid, this will drag on, PPA will be signed, pulp price may go up. That's not what ABH wants to see. They want to own the whole thing.

I don't see why Fairfax likes ABH so much. I think they have moral issue to force this deal on us. So I won't tender to them @1. I don't like their tactic at all.

NO PR from MERC to pull the offer yet, I take that it means they still plan to get forward, hopefully the remaining 54% will tender shares them.

I think if MERC can get above their minimum condition, they may still take the shares for $1.4 so I tender mine just in case. Next Monday we will know whether Steelhead tender to ABH, if not, I think ABH might up the bid. Same here regarding Fairfax - I see the dark side of Prem from this.

ABH can also buy at open market. Will still tender to MERC.

Why would steelhead willing to give up 40% quick profit to help out other ABH holders? The market is saying the MERC deal is dead. We either go with ABH or hold on.

MERC can't take the whole thing as ABH has 46% already. I am a buyer at 90 some cents.