petec

This quarter’s FCF yield is 10%. That’s not annualised. Bit less when you consider Fairfax warrant dilution but even so...

Hi all - my browser is blocking my access to the Charter thread on this board - I get a lovely red screen purporting to be from Microsoft saying that the page contains threats. I get this for every page of the Charter thread but not for any other threads. Is anyone else having this issue?

Wise words SJ although I imagine after the early 2000’s fiasco they’d always maintain decent holdco liquidity. Still, a $1bn buyback at $375 would be nice!

Presumably you didn’t lose billions by shorting equities in one of history’s great bull markets. It’s pretty clear what drove Fairfax for the last 5 years. Question is, what about the next 5?

Ah - I misunderstood. I thought you meant buybacks vs. buying equities, not buybacks vs. buying a new sub. My gut says no new subs - they’ve said they have the footprint they want and as you say they have minorities to buy in.

Yes, I wonder how ffh views the current market. Their own shares look quite cheap, but I wonder whether they will find something else that's been beaten up even more. In any case, US$500m would buy back a considerable chunk of outstanding shares if the price would remain low enough for long enough. SJ The two aren’t mutually exclusive. Buybacks ought to be from earnings, not float. Float can be put to work.

SSW.

FFH LNG KMI

Me too.

Pete, you can't hide your nationality! [ : - ) ] I’m not trying to. I’m just pointing out that the economic risk in the U.K. is not Brexit, it’s the very real possibility that our next Chancellor (finance minister) is a self described Marxist with Maoist sympathies.

In that case you want to worry FAR more about Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party than you do about Brexit.

Does that explain the recent price drop (which is what I assume the OP was referring to?). It’s odd. Several holdings have done poorly recently (India, Blackberry, Eurobank) but the earnings power is rising steadily (2y yield) and risk off periods are very good for Fairfax (optionalitynof cash rises).

More sellers than buyers.

I can't remember the full story but they didn't so much buy half of it as create it. They bought large stakes in the predecessor companies, merged them, hand-picked management etc. I don't know the stock well but their behaviour makes me assume they see it as a long run growth engine.

This thing's absolutely collapsed recently. Anyone following it?

I see this as a positive. It’s not the refi we were hoping for but it signals an end to the cash drain and reduces risk. It’s fairly small though. I wonder if that’s because the need is diminishing, or the appetite is lacking.

Thanks.

Surely the infrastructure bottleneck is only an opportunity for ENB in as much as they are able deploy a relatively small (relative to the base) amount of additional capital? That’s hardly transformative to profitability. Whereas if additional pipe causes the gas price to (say) double, that is definitely transformative for an E&P. Would you mind sharing how you value ENB?

Personally I’d be surprised it if didn’t do at least 7% over most 10y periods in the future. Having the 2 year at 2.7% makes a world of difference to that. Also, they don’t, and if history is a guide won’t, invest only in good businesses. They’ll invest in cheap businesses. Some will do very well, some won’t.

Rather depends on whether you think the next 7 years looks like the last. It would be odd if they did, given the hedges are gone and they can now earn at least something on cash. But to really juice this you need market weakness so that cash can be deployed. If that happens the next 7 look very different to the last 7.

ICC? Yes-but with no visibility on the cash to Dundee.

I think everything flammable has already burned, so we are probably safe on that score. Gah. Why did you have to go and say that?! ;) On a separate topic, the run in the common on no news is bizarre.

Deal announced today values Sanmar at $1.5bn of which FIH will own 43%. BVPS rises by $1.62 although I don’t understand why they get to revalue the equity based on their own follow-on price.

Gregmal while you’re right to a very great degree IMHO, it wasn’t the real estate agents who packaged these mortgages up in such a way that people confused them for AAA bonds. All along the chain of those who sold them, those who bought them, those who rated them, and those who regulated them, a ball was massively dropped because quick money could be made and damn the consequences. Those people did NOT do the work to understand the risks and did NOT take responsibility in any way that I understand the word. And by and large they didn’t pay. None of that excuses those who borrowed what they couldn’t repay, or millenials doing crap degrees, but that doesn’t make it untrue.

12x and 1.5x is on sale?!