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Just my 2c but these kind of ideas suck. No offense to the author. The reasons are simple though. Its too macro. Too complex. Too many things that can go wrong that dont allow you to make money even if your thesis is right. And at the moment, too many people are thinking its a good idea too because of what just happened with Russia. Its like the people saying you should buy puts after the markets gone down 10%. You would have just just as well, if not better owning VIX calls or US index puts as you would have shorting Russian stocks before the Ukraine thing unfolded. Just keep it simple and stay in your own backyard.