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  1. I think that is what ultimately will happen but the multiple it’s transacted at really doesn’t matter as they locked in the price when the swaps were put on. To that end, it makes sense to buy in shares via NCIB first as long as valuation stays low. If the multiple goes up they can unwind TRS instead. The most important thing for me is that I know excess capital has a high return home and that the share count is ultimately heading a lot lower.
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  2. What makes a really good compounder is that they have high returns on excess capital. Fairfax has in order the ability to buy stock back in the open market, buy in minority interests and closing out the TRS. My assumption is they will buy in the open market below 1.5x BV and close out TRS above that. The beauty is that it’s 3+ years of free cash flow where we know the returns on excess capital are high and help maintain the investment to equity leverage.
    1 point
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