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The expected value framing makes no sense. They didn't exit duration in 2015 when rates were lower. They didn't add duration in 2018/2019 when rates were higher than where they exited. They exited their duration immediately following Trump's election. They said themselves that they expected economic growth to take off and rates to run much higher. They were wrong. They got rates modestly higher, never locked those in, a global pandemic and recession where long-end rates went to 0, missed out on additional income and massive capital gains potential for a handful of years, and were bailed out of all of it by a combination of an unforeseen hard market for insurance which ballooned the float that could then be invested at higher rates as rates rose their fastest pace in 50-years ....from supply chain disruptions/inflation expectations and not Trump's economic growth from policies passed 5-years priors. I'm not upset about it. The terrible call and investor fatigue after a string of terrible calls is what allowed me to renter the position in size at $250-450 2-years after selling my stake for $500-600. But I'm not rewriting the history because they got lucky - they were wrong from 2016 - 2020. They were right from 2021 - 2024. 2025 onward remains to be seen, but it's a coin toss and I don't like those odds. Would prefer to see neutral duration positioning with their alpha earned on credit opportunities. They seem to have a better track record with that.