Leaderboard

I agree. I am a CPA and I kind of liked the challenge of taking those tests so I bought a CFA I study guide just for fun. I started going through it and somewhere around Sharpe’s Ratio I realized that the material was counterproductive.

I agree with you that most investors don’t spend the time to understand how the value is being built but that has nothing to do with if FFH will ever fully reflect its intrinsic value. Multiple expansion takes aggressive buyers and reluctant sellers. The buying is coming from the 60 index add and all of the Canadian active funds that are underweight which is value insensitive . Meanwhile, share buybacks and the TRS have cleaned up 7m shares since 2019 from the weakest (read value investor) hands. For those remaining, 2024 will be the fourth year with ROE north of 15%. I think anyone who has a rudimentary understanding of the business model can predict the next 4 years will also be north of 15% on average. If I’m right, the shareholders left will be reluctant sellers by the end of 8 years and the multiple could challenge something like Intact Financial at 3x BV despite recent poor returns. That’s why my plan to sell is based on forward returns and not valuation. Call me a reluctant seller.

Buffett’s ability to continue holding onto a stock is simply incredible to me. Even though he talks against market timing, it almost seems that he is incredibly good at it. I’ve read about how people consider him holding KO past the late 90s being a mistake, but I imagine this trait has done him far more good over the years than bad. I just don’t understand it. When does Buffett truly decide it’s time to sell?