Ultimately, it doesn’t really matter if we think it’s under or overvalued. Current supply is probably from those that think it’s fairly valued. Most of those likely sold earlier in hurricane season (why not if it’s fairly priced in their opinion) and perhaps that explains why volumes have diminished recently. Active buyers might wait until we are through hurricane season before becoming more aggressive and I think they will be accompanied by index huggers who buy on VWAP (that buying never stopped).
There seems to be relatively high certainty despite the consensus estimates that book value is going to be at least 50% higher in 3-5 years and as long as the stock tracks book that means the weighting in the index will be going up all else being equal. It’s at 87bps now and based on the near term earnings, it seems likely the stock will be through 100bps soon. At that point, it will be much harder for the PMs that “hate Prem” to not take another look. It’s a much easier decision to buy than chasing CSU as a value manager in 2018 when it crossed 100bps but now that everyone is a quality growth manager they will have to find a way to forget the past and buy FFH based on its quality growth.
Analysts will get bolder with their estimates and will start to model in growth in earnings. Instead of declining ROEs, they might model a steady 15% which they know will be wrong but shows growth year over year based on compounding. That will bring quant investors in droves which will invite every other active investor left to take a look. My concern is selling too early in this process. Momentum is more pronounced than it’s ever been given the popularity of passive and quants. Things could get out of hand and I’m here for it.