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Showing content with the highest reputation on 04/03/2023 in all areas

  1. I used to read ZH and John Mauldins newsletter starting in 2008 or so. They both sound clever, but if you go down these rabbit holes they are digging you end up wasting a lot of time and even worse, probably lose a lot of money just through opportunity cost if you actually start to believe the financial doomsday porn they are writing. In my opinion, it's important to have some basic media hygiene in terms of what you are consuming. While it is probably a good idea to look at some alternative news sources from time to time, but if you start to dig into these fringe newsources there is a good chance you start to convert your thinking into conspiracy mush where Occam's razor has no chance to cut through any more.
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  2. From my point of view Ferrari and Porsche SE (HoldCo) are not comparable. I also didnt run alot of number chrunching here. PAH3 is more or less a public listed family office of the families Porsche/Piech. As a HoldCo the gap to NAV will never close in total and thats fine for me. I see a lot of potential here. The emphasis surely lies in their major invesmtments Volkswagen and Porsche but they are smart people and if you look at their additional investment portfolio I think they invested in some good companies (areas). Just look at the latest investment in ABB e-mobility. P911 is a great company. Not that of a nieche market as Ferrari but still nieche. They are confident to reach a 20% margin and planning to distribute 50% of profits via dividends. Volkswagen will use the IPO proceeds to strenghten the e-mobility (Software and battery research and capabilities). There is still a huge cap to close with regard to Tesla and I think it will take some time but it is manageable. Plus they have some more valuable Brands like Lamborghini or Audi. Following the PAH3 management statement they intent to keep the dividend constant and paying down the debt they took on to finance the P911 stake. They also keep investing in portfolio companies. As a HoldCo PAH3 pays only minor taxes according to German Corporate Tax Law. The proceeds from sale of investments and received dividends are 95% tax free if you hold a minimum 10% stake in equity. So if 5% of Volkswagen and P911 dividends are taxable at approx. 30% then the current effective tax rate on those cash-flows is 1.5% only and 98.5% of the dividends can be used for operating business or paying down the debt. I intend to keep the investment in PAH3 at least 10 years. Will see how it unfolds.
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