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The Ivys are special. But they’ve all been selling expertise that works great in theory and then fails in the real world for decades because folks buy it. I’ve never seen someone consistently forecast anything for something as useless and ambiguous as a 500 company collection of stocks repping “the market”. It’s like folks who buy lottery tickets. “You ever win those scratch offs?” Lol I mean not to pick on Kyle Bass but he got popular in June and July and came nowhere close to being right about his forecasts; has done dismally with anything publicly traceable all decade, and nevertheless marches on unabated and unashamed still touting the same crap. In fact, Cathy Wood in 2018 or whatever was more correct/precise with her Tesla price target(hitting it like 3-4 different times although continuing to up it the whole way)…that should say something to folks about the stupidity of the guessing game. Bizarrely, the only guy I’ve seen who changed his stripes recently was Prem Watsa. Finally just shut his mouth and stopped pretending to be a macro expert, sure he covered his shorts at the top, but otherwise just basically packed it in and decided to invest in his circle of competency and the results the last few years have been very good. So IDK, I’m just perplexed when I see folks continuously trying to play this game. You don’t beat the house. Definitely not over the long run, if you’re playing their games. Successful investing isn’t “guess” the collection of 500 stock weighted average earnings, “guess” the multiple, wait aimlessly until it goes way below that, buy, then “guess” next years 500 stock weighted average earnings, “guess” next years weighted average earnings multiple, and then wait endlessly til it reaches that to sell. Like what’s even the point in trying to do that?