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@shruI don’t think your hypothesis makes much sense. 1) a lockdown in China will hurt the Chinese economy much more so than it does collateral damage to western economies (probably need order of magnitude more). 2. china is not the cause of inflation in the west, the causes are lack of labor in western economies, and rising natural resource prices as well as shortages due to demand spiking. 3) China is in much more risk of having a bubble popping the west. China has a real estate bubble that far exceed what we have in the US or even Canada. Worse, since they have pegged the Yuan to the USD, their monetary policy is tied to US monetary policy, until they decide to get rid of the currently peg. It seems like markets already predicting that this may happen, because the Chinese Yuan is very weak agains the USD. I think Chinese has to be much more concerned about their social fabric than the west at the moment. We can tell this from “common prosperity” agenda which whacks their stock market , but I guess they feel they have to do it nevertheless.