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Indeed fundamentals do matter in the long term but anything can happen in the near term. Take the last 12 months for example. At 2025 Q2 end, Fairfax had $25.77b of shareholder equity, and shares traded at $1807. We will know about end of Q2 2026 shortly, but it's likely atleast a $1B higher. In addition they likely reduced share count by around 1.8M in the year ending Q2 2026. Underwriting has been strong and in the range of 92-93% CR, and net written premiums have continued to grow in the collective albeit much more modestly. Interest rates(proxy 10yr tbill) are another 0.3% higher. And their net excess of market value over carrying value went from $2.4B-->$4.2B. Additionally they have added to their wholly owned subsidiaries eg Kennedy Wilson, MW Eats, while Andrew Peller and Sleep number(via Sleep country) are in the works and perhaps IDBI is coming soon. Lastly they paid around $350M in dividends. They earned and allocated over $210 in eps during this time and probably accrued easily another $70-80 in value in ownership stakes that they held over this time. The S&P has gone roughly 6200->7500 during this time. None of these seem to be negatives to me! And yet the stock closed at $1624 today, over 10% lower than end Q2 2025. By my estimates BV per share is about $150 higher, and IV is about 20% higher over 12mths, even as the share price is 10% lower. No wonder they keep buying. Let's keep this streak alive. One more year like this please.

Even Rabiot thought that first half was shameful:

https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/episodes/fairfax-financial-ffo-to-the-berkshire-of-the-north-tip/

lol everything I've read has people thinking it sucked so.. I guess it depends on what you're reading? Also I have eyes and a brain and watched that first half.. what's so exciting about low effort?

Probably too soon for AI. It's only been out for 2 years, not even at the dial-up internet equivalent stage yet. I think the current divergence in wealth is more likely from globalization. The top performers have a larger market while the bottom performers to compete against a far larger labour pool.

Everything I've read.has people thinking it was the best game of the tournament. Maybe (probably) because there was little defense. If that was distasteful I think a lot of fans would want there to be more distasteful games. Theyre exciting.

I found that England-France game to be distasteful. Zero effort on both sides, especially the French. They're playing like it was an exhibition or all-star game, rather disrespectful to their fans.

Well, I think the vote might be split there...quality versus quantity. Do you have sex with your girlfriend like a rabbit and each time is more tiring and less exciting, or do you make love to your wife once and you feel a singular euphoria? I think the Europeans and South Americans will disagree with each other! Cheers!

This stuff certainly happens, and always will happen...people will always try and find a way to game the system. But in terms of fair/equitable elections, I don't think the proof of fraud has been substantial enough to change the legitimacy of the results...certainly not in the last three elections which have been heavily scrutinized! It happens, tighten the rules, but forget the bullshit fear-mongering, conspiracy shit that undermines the elections. You are not some banana republic! Cheers!

Yea, I mean like some of the guys defending soccer....I played hockey and loved it as it was...but as far as the health of the sport goes, you need to sometimes step back as a purist and accept some things need to change if the game is going to grow. The best games of the WC were the England France and Croatia Portugal games where things were back and forth and there were plenty of scoring chances and goals(even though the refs stole a bunch)...the 1-0 yawners are only fun for purists and folks at the pub.

Again, one commit suicide and the other was crazy to begin with! Concussions, brain trauma, multiple surgeries, arthritic bones...it's a tough life when you retire. Cheers!

It was fun to watch, but ALOT of concussion PTSD for these players...even ones that didn't fight and just got clobbered by open ice, full-speed hits, boarding hits, etc. We didn't understand the mental health issues these athletes were experiencing because fans were thoroughly entertained. The sport today is much safer for these athletes. Cheers!

Yea, so much like the "government waste" subject....can these deranged libs stop protesting it and claiming it doesnt exist or doesnt matter lol?

You are probably right there. Although the clutching, grabbing and diving was just as bad 20 years ago in soccer. At least with VAR you can now punish people for faking it or cheating. You get rid of the clutching and grabbing in hockey, add a few minor changes to keep the flow going and reduce goalie pad sizes, and you increased scoring dramatically and made the game exciting again. Few people enjoy a technically sound game or boxing match (defensive)...they want action and thrills! Cheers!

Not saying that's a good thing, but it happens in every state: Fact check: Have non-citizens voted in recent Florida elections? - Ballotpedia 2,724 'potential noncitizens' registered to vote in Texas; review finds 33 may have voted in 2024

Like Trump, I think many MAGA supporters think most of the world has no issues with Trump or his policies. How can you be mad at such a loveable leader?! Cheers!

He covers Trump less than John Oliver, Stephen Colbert or Jimmy Kimmel, but I would say about half his stuff is Trump-related...current administration-related. That being said, he takes the Democrats equally to task, and was completely non-partisan when pushing all Congressmen to pass a bill extending full health coverage to 9/11 veterans suffering from radiation exposure and other risks as first responders. Cheers!

Thank you!

Of course, as you may know I agree with all of this. My only response would be from these four levers, the only lever not fully in their control is interest rates. And my point was if you take the others as given i.e great capital allocation and alignment, the variable macro i.e interest rates is also in a great spot i.e 5% locked in for ~3years with rates likely to stay there or higher rather than going lower. So the downside risk today is very low.

My aim is next 6-12 Qs. I think SNDK will do $400+ in CY27 EPS. From that perspective this is very cheap, don't even need a re-rate. Then you have HBF as well. Kimi K3 comes with a new KV cache optimization layer that shrinks cache by 75%. It is now 4x cheaper to just let cache stay because if you're not doing that then whenever the user comes back to the chat the labs will have to re-compute everything on the GPUs. I have kept trimming SNDK. Started the position in Tegridy when stock was $400. It kept ballooning and becoming a bigger % of the book. Cut the proceeds from it to fund LQDA buying when the stock went down as well. Whats in the fund now is basically house money, or even less than that. NVDA ICMS architecture specs out roughly ~16TB of KV-cache capacity per GPU, ~150TB of context memory pool per rack, built from 100TB SSD modules, scaling up to a 10PB ICMS cluster serving an NVL72 rack-scale system. The Rubin generation that actually carries BlueField-4/ICMS enters rack mass production end of 3Q26, with ~5,000-7,000 VR200 racks in 2H26 and the real volume ramp in 2027 according the street. The ICMS central case of 85-90EB would consume 60-75% of the entire industry's annual bit growth by itself. Then you add non-NVDA demand and we'd still be constrained. I think r/r for SNDK very good under $1,600/sh.

Like most others here I am also surprised at the relatively low valuation Fairfax trades at compared to its fundamental performance. Mr. Market can be funny, unpredictable and most importantly wrong for long periods. That's what makes investing hard but also interestingly also what makes it easy, ie these opportunities exist not for a week or a month but can exist for a year+. Based on my experience it has started to happen more often recently and for longer durations as a lot of value investors complain (Terry Smith is a recent example, David Einhorn a less recent example), maybe because of increase of passive and short termism from quant funds. In my opinion, the only solution is you invest in companies that have great capital allocation, i.e if the share price is depressed and Mr. Market does not give the credit due they use their cash flow to take advantage of the dislocation through buybacks as Fairfax does. You get EPS compounding regarding of what Mr. Market or the multiple does. The question I get most when I talk about Fairfax is why does it trade at 8x earnings - something must be wrong with it. Investors try to explain and rationalise Mr. Markets moods. As opposed to a first principle analysis of what a business trading with 15-20% sustainable earnings power (and 15-20% ROE) over the next 5 years should trade at.

Well yes, that was the issue with hockey too. Dead puck era was also known as the clutch age grab era. Too much obstruction, tactical interference, offsides and two line passing bans stunted gameplay; essentially the defensive model used the rulebook to perfection. Scoring was the lowest ever, the game to many was boring…and eventually they changed the rules, fixed the offside bullshit, and opened the game up to high speed, high skill play. Ironically, the Russian style of hockey that was much maligned through the 80/90s. Soccer could certainly benefit from this, especially changing the stupid offsides ruling even partially…if 80% of the players are on one side of the field there’s zero point to calling offsides, let alone the disgrace we saw in the Croatia game where everyone was in the box. Make penalties for embellishment severe.

you are not nervous about "peak earnings" for SNDK in 2027? When supply catches up to demand then suddenly the price of memory will plummet and at 7 times 2027 earnings it could still be expensive if it earns way less in 2028 and beyond. I am willing to bet the capex cycle continues longer than people expect but "peak earnings" is one factor kind of making me nervous about SNDK. Or you will hold out for 3-4 quarters of great earnings, wait for the stock to get re-rated, then get out?

I’m not sure this makes sense. Almost all innovation has been private at inception for a long long time. It still eventually increases productivity and incomes broadly and usually leads to lower prices. AI is essentially free right now. If people are not getting benefits, that is on them or on AI being over-hyped currently. Giant flat screen TVs are now less than $100. ICE engines now get twice the miles per gallon that they did 20 years ago and gas is roughly the same price (without Iran war) due to the shale drilling innovations. Those things make everything more productive and cheaper for everyone. I mean the internet has made everything cheaper and more productive in millions and millions of ways. AI will eventually be the same. There is just no way the benefits all go to Zuck. Creative destruction is alive and well in the USA.

"The agreement makes Kraft Heinz the exclusive provider of some condiments, macaroni and cheese and cream cheese at Disney’s North American parks and resorts, and on the Disney Cruise Line. The deal enables Kraft Heinz to use Disney characters and stories across 10 of the food company’s brands, including Heinz, Philadelphia and Kraft Mac & Cheese. It also extends to Disney’s studios and streaming platforms, where Kraft Heinz will fund content co-created by the two entities." https://www.wsj.com/business/media/kraft-heinz-strikes-deal-with-disney-to-supply-resorts-and-tap-characters-d24a8b15