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More of the same from the International Politics kindergarden sandbox [ ] : - - - o 0 o - - - One would think the two were married, ripe for diworse! [ ]

Sure. It's a risk (that Israel and US will take the high road) Iran took and it paid off. Again, we agree on the outcome but I think Iran is shrewed when it takes risks and up to this point it has been paying off. More so in the last round with Trump.

I think picking a fight with two nuclear capable adversaries and stating that your goal is destroying two nuclear armed states is asking to be nuked into Stone Age. How that is rational is beyond me. Had USA in 1979 or Israel since been run by anyone with guts, Iran and its great civilization (I truly believe that Iranian civilization is a great one and I am not being ironic) would have been wiped off the face of the earth.

It is genuinely embarrassing how much loud, confident ignorance you manage to cram into a single post. You aren't analyzing Middle East politics. You are typing out a fever dream of fiction fueled by TikTok algorithms with zero historical literacy. Let's ground your post a bit. First, your delusion that Iran and its proxies could "eliminate Israel at any moment" if the US steps away is mathematically and militarily brain-dead. Iran couldn't even protect its own proxy leadership from being systematically turned into statistics over a single weekend, and Hamas is trapped in a blockaded strip, having lost nearly 50% of the land from beforec Oct 7th. Believing they pose an existential threat to a nuclear-armed state with one of the most tech advanced militaries on Earth shows you are absolutely no grasp on conventional warfare. Nevermind that Israel won its most decisive victories of '48 and '67 without massive US aid alignment. Second, calling a collection of religious extemeist loons who have economically gutted Lebanon, ruined Gaza, and hidden in tunnels while their chivilians take the hit "discipline and restraint" is a peak Stockholm syndrome. If watching your entire command structure get obliterated by exploding pagesr and airstrikes is your definition of "defeating a superpower", then please, keep on winning. Third, falling for fake internet quotes in 2026 is pathetic. The "gaza holocaust" quote you attributed to May Golan is widely exposed, illiterate mistranslation of a Hebrew interview, where she said she was proud of "ruins of Hamas infrastructure." Seriously, go listen to it and use Google Translate. If you have to invent fake quotes ot make your point, you already admitting your actual argument is a loser. And by the way, this isn't the first time I caught you falling for fake Internet memes from propaganda accounts. You can scroll back many pages back and it's all there. Maybe it's time to reconsider what echo chamber you are in? Finally, trying to use JD to imply US is cutting Israel loose completely exposes your political illeteracy. Vance's entire stance is to cut through the red tape and let israel finish the job faster and harder. JD knows that this particular excursion by Trump was a huge miscalculation and as an American, I do too. I have no clue what Trump was thinking about here and in Trump's fashion, he is trying to bull his way into a deal and disengage, even if it means bullying Israel into stopping its activities. But to think JD or anyone sane thinks that Hamas/Hezb are good guys and the US is going to throw Israel to the wolves is just naive. You lack the basic factual baseline required to have this conversation. Seriously, pick up a history book. It is fascinating how much pro-pal and anti-israel folk just refuse to help themselves and continuoully humiliate themselves. Oh and do consider changing up your X/TikTok algo. I suspect you are getting fed a healthy diet of propaganda.

@skanjete - I visited Prague and it is magical. But, can one get a good enough job there like NYC, Silicon Valley? My son and I saw the Prague Astronomical Clock (The Orloj) in Old Town Square is widely considered one of the city's most underwhelming tourist experiences. lol. But, the people were nice.

If it's not a sneakhead finish eating the tadpoles, it's another invasive specie that ravishes an eco-system. Laws of the jungle.

There are no hurt feelings. The Iranians and their allies can eliminate the Israelis at any moment if US ever steps away. That so-called “unbreakable friendship” between Trump and Netanyahu is already fractured — and this is an exciting time for the region. If Trump ever tells Israel “you’re on your own,” - they would be in big trouble! He speaks the language that Israel’s genocidal animals truly understand. (Please see another Israeli minister spewing hate below) The difference — which puzzles me how you don’t see it — is that he is a publicly elected official representing the will of Israeli voters. Compare him to the Iranians: one side acts like bloodthirsty animals, slaughtering women and children, the other shows true discipline and resistance and just defeated the worlds super power. Even Trump admitted it when he told Netanyahu to stop blowing up entire buildings in Lebanon. Israelis are experts at killing women and children as we have seen in Palestine and now Lebanon, but the moment they get hit back, they beg for American help and play the victim - it’s exactly what they did during the 12 day war. Remember: Israel only exists because of the United States allows them to exist. as per JD Vance, “Israel needs to wake up and smell the reality of the situation that country is in.” JD Vance giving Israelis a reality check: https://x.com/nicksortor/status/2067642712560689401/video/1?s=46 Another Israeli publically elected cabinet member: “I am personally proud of the holocaust of Gaza, and that 80 years from now, they will tell their grandchildren what the Jews did,” —The Israeli Minister of Social Equality.

Do you have a more accurate number? Where does the 6% come from precisely? Even if 5 year bond yields average 4.5% over the last 40 years, Fairfax has always run much shorter duration than that. How do you factor that in to your analysis? Btw, even with your 6% assumption the equity returns are 12%+ which beats the S&P over 40 years.....can't argue with that? Why didn't Buffett do this?

I tend to agree with your asessment though I think our conclusions are a tad differnet. I think Iran was acting rationally. What is being conflated is moral/conventional rationality with strategic rationality. While Iran's actions are highly destructive and confrontational, they followed a calculated, logical framework aimed at regime survival, regional influnce, and assymetric deterrence. It did take a terrible move by the current president to really reward them handsomely.

If we assume that those returns are indeed correct, then why didn't Fairfax raised a twenty billion or forty billion hedge fund from endowments and ran it with the incentive and management fee going to the company?

LOL...it hurts your feeligns that Itamar speaks the language that really resonates with the neighbors up north? Honestly, how is this different than Rabih Banat, Walid Jumblatt, Ossama Saad or even Wiam Wahhab? It's not. Do you go around calling them genocidal animals? You probably don't even though Hizb shoots indescriminantly into Israel (remember those druze soccer boys that got killed) while Israel takes precautions with Lebanese civilians at the cost of IDF soldier lives.civilians at the cost of IDF soldier lives. Good for Israel obliterating Hizballah. I only wish Israel could turn to be more effective diplomat and capitalize on tactical wins like the pager attack with the main Lebanon and get a peace going. Other than that, good on Israel for continiously pounding the life out of Hizballah.

Where are you getting average annual fixed income return = 4.2% over the past 40 years? That seems extraordinarily low. Even AI claims it averaged 4.61% for a 5 year treasury. Given that Fairfax seems to have bought corporate debt and mortgages, my guess is that the return on the fixed income portfolio was north of 6% per annum over the past 40 years.

@Blake Hampton you need to stop whining all the time. I’m sorry, but if you are like this in real life, no one will want to hang around you. I hope you have close family and friends who are able to tell you to shut up - if you lack close relationships maybe look inwards. Even if you are right, sometimes it’s just better to say nothing and muddle on through.

I agree I am a big fan of buybacks too given where the share price is. The good news is assuming a 10% forward equity return you can estimate a ~15% forward ROE, assuming a 15% forward equity return you can estimate a ~19% forward ROE. And this is before any additional unlock of latent value eg. Bangalore airport and situations like Poseidon where book value << market value.

An additional factor to consider is they were working with millions and hundreds of millions early on, now it's Billions, I believe around $28B, and size is a headwind. Though certainly not as much of one as for Berkshire. Yet another reason I'm a huge fan of their buybacks.

God bless AI!

Btw @Maverick47 I just had Claude estimate the Geometric return based on the AGM chart, and historical annual reports and given the low volatility in returns (due to high FI %), it calculated the Geometric return is 7.5%, not far off from the average.

Agreed.

Yes I agree @Maverick47 good point, I had thought about that and yes its only a rough approximation. For example, on the other hand, their fixed income return in the calculation is likely overstated as i) the realised fixed income yield would be less than the approximated 5 years Fixed income yield given short duration cash held will reduce the overall yield. ii) There have been times when they have been significantly short duration relative to their liabilities (i.e assuming the 5 year yield is overstated for those periods). That would imply an equity return higher than I calculated above. In aggregate, their equity returns may be somewhere 15-20% annually over 40 years but I am quite confident to say they have trounced the S&P500 over that period.

I think you’re directionally on the right track with trying to approximate the equity returns by backing them out of the total investment returns. One caution I would make is to be clear in differentiating between an arithmetic average return and a geometrically compounded return. My guess is that the S&P 500 11.2% return is the CAGR over the period, meaning the geometric average. Meanwhile, the 7.7% Fairfax investment return looks to me as if it might just be the simple arithmetic average of the individual years. The geometric average is what we’d want to have in order to compare with the equity index, but I don’t them we have that here. And generally speaking, when you take into account the possibility of negative return years, which have occurred four times in the Fairfax history, then the geometric return, which is what we want for comparison purposes to the index, is always going to be less than what appears to be an arithmetic average return of 7.7%. My guess is that Fairfax’s equity returns on a geometrically compounded basis probably have still exceeded those of the index over 40 years, but that they likely may not have not been quite as high as 18.2% annually.

Nobody hinders you to look somewhere else.

But I will not deny that a lot of these problems have been building underneath the surface for quite some time. Our current state with Trump is simply a reflection of just how bad those problems have become. We should feel shame for the things Trump is doing. Yet when I look around all I can find is apathy.

The US is the land of opportunity. Which doesnt mean folks aint free to sit around wasting that opportunity bitching and moaning about stuff they have no control over....

I feel like United States is currently in a mania. It seems like irrational thinking is pervasive everywhere, most of all in our current administration. What a shame. America should be better than this.

Average total return of their portfolio (FI and equities) over the last 40 years is 7.7%. We don't have a direct number for the equity return but can approximate it. Last 40 year average 5 year fixed income yield is 4.2%. Lets assume Fairfax earned that yield. Split between fixed income and equity book has changed over time but I think 75% vs 25% is a good approximation for historical average. So, 75% * Fixed income return + 25% * Equity return = 7.7%. Lets assume FI return = 4.2% so equity return over 40 years = 18.2% Note that calculation is rough but S&P return over 40 years is 11.5% with dividends re-invested. So unless you meaningfully disagree with my rough calculation, over 40 years Fairfax equity returns have trounced the S&P 500.