Guest Dazel Posted January 20, 2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Probability wise the market will not continue to defy gravity...can it continue for awhile yes...but we are going to get a correction this year...will it be 10 or 20% or more I do not know...Fairfax will benefit from this. I see Fairfax as set up pretty well for this year... At best I think the market will likely be fairly flat...so the hedge bleeding is likely over for awhile and will return some of the blood it has taken out of Fairfax. Currency, bond gains and a decent return on their investments could make Fairfax look very good this year.
twacowfca Posted January 20, 2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Probability wise the market will not continue to defy gravity...can it continue for awhile yes...but we are going to get a correction this year...will it be 10 or 20% or more I do not know...Fairfax will benefit from this. I see Fairfax as set up pretty well for this year... At best I think the market will likely be fairly flat...so the hedge bleeding is likely over for awhile and will return some of the blood it has taken out of Fairfax. Currency, bond gains and a decent return on their investments could make Fairfax look very good this year. I almost hope you 're right. We are 100% hedged now with cheap S&P 500 puts. Autocorrelation suggests the most likely market direction will be . . . what it's been doing -- treading water or resuming it's upward path. However, Mr. Market reads the tea leaves in January to see what's going to happen the rest of the year. This may be nothing more than a self fulfilling prophesy, but that becomes a rational expectation if January's trend is down. If that happens -- watch out below.!
giofranchi Posted January 20, 2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Gio, You are way too kind....I am a business man so I see assets differently than most...I am involved in the private market. The public markets are there to help you buy assets cheaper than you would be able to in the private market. Well, Sanjeev, twacowfca, Packer, oddballstocks, onyx1, SharperDingaan, and you (and others as well!) are both investors and businessmen! This only reinforces my idea your points of view are not far from those of the Prems and the Warrens of the world (albeit, probably, on a smaller scale!). :) Cheers, Gio
giofranchi Posted January 20, 2014 Posted January 20, 2014 I'll take a 5% posiiton at $380. This is funny… $380 is exactly my price target for adding more FFH! ;) Cheers, Gio
gary17 Posted January 22, 2014 Posted January 22, 2014 I wonder if people know during the hard insurance pricing market -- what's the book value multiple for companies like MKL & ffh, thanks
Williams406 Posted January 22, 2014 Posted January 22, 2014 Garychen, Morningstar.com has a 10-year price/book stat on the free portion of their site. Type in company ticker. Click "valuation" on the horizontal tab and you'll have 10-year P/E, P/B, and P/S. 406
gary17 Posted January 22, 2014 Posted January 22, 2014 The last hard market was more than 10 years ago
plato1976 Posted January 23, 2014 Posted January 23, 2014 Guys, what's our latest estimation of FFH 's book value now (after the $10 div) ? The last hard market was more than 10 years ago
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now