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FFH (FRFHF) ownership poll


shalab
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Probability wise the market will not continue to defy gravity...can it continue for awhile yes...but we are going to get a correction this year...will it be 10 or 20% or more I do not know...Fairfax will benefit from this. I see Fairfax as set up pretty well for this year...

At  best I think the market will likely be fairly flat...so the hedge bleeding is likely over for awhile and will return some of the blood it has taken out of Fairfax. Currency, bond gains and a decent return on their investments could make Fairfax look very good this year.

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Probability wise the market will not continue to defy gravity...can it continue for awhile yes...but we are going to get a correction this year...will it be 10 or 20% or more I do not know...Fairfax will benefit from this. I see Fairfax as set up pretty well for this year...

At  best I think the market will likely be fairly flat...so the hedge bleeding is likely over for awhile and will return some of the blood it has taken out of Fairfax. Currency, bond gains and a decent return on their investments could make Fairfax look very good this year.

 

I almost hope you 're right.  We are 100% hedged now with cheap S&P 500 puts.  Autocorrelation suggests the most likely market direction will be . . . what it's been doing -- treading water or resuming it's upward path.  However, Mr. Market reads the tea leaves in January to see what's going to happen the rest of the year.  This may be nothing more than a self fulfilling prophesy, but that becomes a rational expectation if January's trend is down.  If that happens -- watch out below.!

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Gio,

 

You are way too kind....I am a business man so I see assets differently than most...I am involved in the private market. The public markets are there to help you buy assets cheaper than you would be able to in the private market.

 

Well, Sanjeev, twacowfca, Packer, oddballstocks, onyx1, SharperDingaan, and you (and others as well!) are both investors and businessmen! This only reinforces my idea your points of view are not far from those of the Prems and the Warrens of the world (albeit, probably, on a smaller scale!). :)

 

Cheers,

 

Gio

 

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