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Nothing to do


wescobrk
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Except for a special situation, I can't find any bargains.

I have a full time job so won't be twiddling my thumbs, but when it comes to investments my time looks like it will be better spent watching movies, breaking bad, and some reading for the next few weeks/months until we get another buying opportunity.

 

Anyone else finding anything to buy?

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There are companies out there trading for less than the value of their cash and/or stocks:

 

NFD.A*

Phoscan

Selwyn*

 

SCP.TO

CMP.UN

 

Pinetree Capital (the debt is more attractive though IMO)

Aberdeen International

?Jemtec?

 

The companies I listed first tend to have better management.  If you're into super easy, those are places to look.  I would avoid companies with very bad management though... Pinetree/Aberdeen/Jemtec may be traps.  I am wary about cigar butts and 50-cent dollars.  I believe that Pinetree is currently a 50-cent dollar... if you're into that kind of thing.

 

*I own these.

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I have a full time job so won't be twiddling my thumbs, but when it comes to investments my time looks like it will be better spent watching movies, breaking bad, and some reading for the next few weeks/months until we get another buying opportunity.

 

There's always something to do.

 

While you're waiting for a fat pitch, how about working on your swing?  Try to tear apart and understand an understandable industry.  Like the Automotive Industry.  Or, say, the Fertilizer Industry.  This way when a nice looking pitch comes your way you'll be ready for it.

 

Right now I'm digging into how the Potash industry works.  And, to a lesser extent, the fertilizer industry in general.  It's crazy complicated, but I think it's understandable to a very large degree.

 

And, if you look at the industry in the right light, there might be some incredible bargains in it right now.  I still haven't decided yet myself. :)

 

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For me, all the usual contenders are still there -- nat gas heavy E&P companies, finance cos, telcos, auto companies, and certain RE companies. 

 

The newest sectors I've been looking at are refiners and steel producers.  I own companies in both sectors.

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I am finding alot to buy,  bought some.

 

Lightstream Oil and Gas

High Artic Energy - O&G Services company with a 6% yield paid monthly. Some growth there, and low PE.

Northern Tier Energy LP - Havent bought yet, there is a VIC write up. First refinery I have really understood in terms of how they make money. Listening to calls.

ROIC Warrants - I see an easy double. Have already made 4x my money prior to the pull back. I reloaded and am waiting for the next double.

Extreme Drilling - Cheap driller which has turned, have 10% of portfolio in it, at prices 25% lower.

AWILCO - High yield, may get lucky with day rates on this one. Small 2% holding

RDI - Really like Management here, hold in a taxable account, will hold for the long term.

Strategic Oil & Gas Ltd - Really like this idea, but a new holding, will scale up as play works out.

 

I am starting to feel smart, and feel like I know what I am doing, which means we are a bit frothy and we are due for a correction.

I can find things to buy, but am trying to get to 10% cash.

 

My new strat is high yield with growth in a retirement account. Build a true Berkshire with companies which throw off cash, in good times and bad. That cash is then reinvested. Rinse and repeat.

 

TX what refiners do you own, also why Nat gas heavy, oily E&Ps are cheap?

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I agree, lots of energy looks pretty cheap to me.  I suppose I need to stress test it at $70 oil and see how cheap it looks.  I've not been through the normal boom and bust in the oil patch that some of you more wizened fellows may have, but it seems like the tendency is to overshoot bigtime on production until some people go bankrupt, which some argue is what we need in nat gas.  Makes me think, perhaps I should go with Exxon or Chevron or someone with a fortress balance sheet that is basically a specialist investment banking firm for energy.

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TX what refiners do you own, also why Nat gas heavy, oily E&Ps are cheap?

 

I own TSO.

 

I actually do like the producers that have become more oily (e.g., CHK).  I guess I should have said E&Ps with unrecognized nat gas potential.  It's going to be great to see nat gas get exported as oil starts to stabilize at a lower price (hopefully).   

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I have been a gas bear for 5 years. One day it will turn, but there is just too much of it in the US.

Oily stocks with gas resources that can be exploited though give you the exposure without the major risk of prolonged subpar gas prices.

 

I am finding that oil and gas is very cheap now. Oil is at $100 and the stocks are priced as if its at $75.

Will look at TSO, though I like the 1 refiner, retail gas stations, and huge dividend payments.

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West, that's a great idea! I recently started looking at the Potash industry for the first time. Have you come across any interesting industry reports that you found insightful?

 

Thread hijacking here, but...

 

There are plenty out there.  However, none of them I found were really up to date with the turmoil that's currently happening in the industry.

 

If I were going to do it again, I don't think I'd need much more than the UN statistical yearbook (and other UN data), the USGS Minerals Survey and Minerals Yearbook, and all the data put out by the individual companies in the potash industry (there's not that many).  This is not an industry that's lacking information.

 

I'm pretty sure if you used just the above information, you could model 90%+ of the world's potash production specific-mine by specific-mine.  It might take a little bit of time though. :)

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