adesigar Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000341008 Mark Fisher: Canadian energy on sale In the video he kind of mentions Guggenheim. Is this what he was talking about - Guggenheim Canadian Energy Income ETF (ENY)? Does anyone know of any other ETF's that hold exclusively Canadian/Oil Sands etc? Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest notorious546 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 iShares Oil Sand Index ETF https://www.blackrock.com/ca/individual/en-ca/products/239704/ishares-oil-sands-index-fund?locale=en_CA&siteEntryPassthrough=true Holds co's like Suncor, Imperial Oil and Baytex which all have meaningful oil sands exposure but substantial other operations as well. I think you might be better off building a basket of names that include MEG, Cenovus, Blackpearl etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moustachio Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 How is Lightstream looking to people now? 2015 is going to be rough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest notorious546 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 LTS is in excess of 5x D/CF i doubt they'll grow or find any way to pay it off even with asset sales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moustachio Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 LTS is in excess of 5x D/CF i doubt they'll grow or find any way to pay it off even with asset sales. I was more wondering if they will be able to survive the year without an asset sale. They have over 5x D/CF with oil at 65$ according to a December press release: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lightstream-announces-2015-capital-program-223521477.html With oil likely to be much lower for at least the first half of the year, they are looking at much lower cash flow flows and further declining production. I wonder if they'll be able to come up with any cash flow at all for drilling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 Maybe some hope and time for companies that are levered. Reading Gasfrac's announcement that they are entering CCAA protection: http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aGFS-2244427&symbol=GFS®ion=C This passage hit me in the head: "Under the CCAA proceedings, it is expected that the corporation's operations will continue uninterrupted in the ordinary course of business, and obligations to employees, key suppliers of goods and services, and the corporation's customers, after the filing date, will continue to be met on a continuing basis. Under the initial order, the corporation's management will remain responsible for the day-to-day operations of the corporation, and to the best of the knowledge, information and belief of the corporation, there are no intended material changes to the management team or the composition of the board of directors, and the continuity thereof is anticipated to continue throughout the CCAA process." Gasfrac was doing poorly well before oil started to decline. Their services simply did not sell. So it was the nail in the coffin for them. For levered oil & gas producers with good netbacks, infrastructure and assets, this is a completely different story. By that I mean that one company could trip a bank covenant, find or negotiate a small bridge loan, decide to enter CCAA and by the time this is getting sorted out in Court, the oil price could be vastly different than today. After all, there is no problem selling oil. It is just that selling oil well below what the industry needs to make a profit is a whacky situation. So say that LTS is forced into bankruptcy because they cannot continue meeting all their obligations under current oil price, they would then continue operating under CCAA until a resolution is agreed by the Court. This could take many months. By that point, oil could be back to $70 or $80 and with it solid cash flows to meet current obligations and they could find much easier a buyer for their Bakken asset for example at a solid price. Considering that so many of these companies are in the same situation and despite their now low market caps, we are still talking billions in assets, it is quite possible that the Albertan court system could be overwhelmed and this process could take a lot longer than it normally would. Enough time to flush out speculators, the industry to rationalize and for oil to go back to a more normal equilibrium price or closer to the long term price indicated by the futures. With Wilbur Ross circling and outfits such as the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board having expressed interest in a Talisman Energy bid, it is also not that hard to imagine some sort of profitable funding advances being made to preserve assets and Canadian employment at companies under duress that could turn out to be just temporary duress. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4288&mn=161829&pt=msg&mid=14568849 Nawar posts some interesting information from time to time on oil. Considering how fast shale production in NA did ramp up, I think that people will be equally surprised as to how fast it will come down. Take away speculative financing (no doubt, this is happening) along with very high decline rate and you have a recipe for NA production to reverse rapidly. If this has truly become the global swing factor or marginal production then this bear market in oil may not last anywhere near as long as some people anticipate or by extrapolating from history. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aws Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Does anyone know what the Lightstream senior unsecured bonds are trading for? I can't seem to find a CUSIP and I don't have any type of bond trading platform. Just curious because I heard the company say they were buying them back at a discount in November. They didn't give the exact figure but I think it worked out to around 67, and the stock is down 80% since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest notorious546 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Does anyone know what the Lightstream senior unsecured bonds are trading for? I can't seem to find a CUSIP and I don't have any type of bond trading platform. Just curious because I heard the company say they were buying them back at a discount in November. They didn't give the exact figure but I think it worked out to around 67, and the stock is down 80% since then. 8.625% are at about 56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opihiman2 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Holy shit. $44 a barrel. Ouch. Feel the pain O&G industry. FEEL IT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Holy shit. $44 a barrel. Ouch. Feel the pain O&G industry. FEEL IT. Canadian dollar is now around 79 cents US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opihiman2 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Holy shit. $44 a barrel. Ouch. Feel the pain O&G industry. FEEL IT. Canadian dollar is now around 79 cents US. Yeah, I've been looking at USD to CAD for the past few months. I wonder how low it will go. It seems like a good idea to switch USD to CAD at some point. Any thoughts on this, guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Holy shit. $44 a barrel. Ouch. Feel the pain O&G industry. FEEL IT. Canadian dollar is now around 79 cents US. Yeah, I've been looking at USD to CAD for the past few months. I wonder how low it will go. It seems like a good idea to switch USD to CAD at some point. Any thoughts on this, guys? I have wondered the same. What I have been doing is selling some US common stock out of my RSPs,and TFSAs. AIG for the most part - Nothing against AIG - bought it substantially cheaper than today, when the currency was around par. I probably lose some upside but I can shift it into stocks that pay decent and rising dividends in Canada but not yet. I am not ready to pull the trigger on the currency in a big way yet. We reached 0.67 cents around 10'yrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tengen Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 According to Wikipedia, the modern day low is $0.6179, which was reached on Jan 21, 2002. If you believe in purchasing power parity, the CAD is already undervalued. Regardless, my view is that the CAD will go down further, possibly breaching $0.70, unless there is a sharp rebound in oil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opihiman2 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Holy shit. $44 a barrel. Ouch. Feel the pain O&G industry. FEEL IT. Canadian dollar is now around 79 cents US. Yeah, I've been looking at USD to CAD for the past few months. I wonder how low it will go. It seems like a good idea to switch USD to CAD at some point. Any thoughts on this, guys? I have wondered the same. What I have been doing is selling some US common stock out of my RSPs,and TFSAs. AIG for the most part - Nothing against AIG - bought it substantially cheaper than today, when the currency was around par. I probably lose some upside but I can shift it into stocks that pay decent and rising dividends in Canada but not yet. I am not ready to pull the trigger on the currency in a big way yet. We reached 0.67 cents around 10'yrs ago. Yeah, I remember that. I was in Vancouver around 99-2000 and thought the exchange rate was great. I'm not sure where the CAD will end up, but if it goes to below .70, I think I'm going to start sending all my USD to CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wellmont Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 yep purchasing power parity is .83 apparently. over shoot is in process.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/10/us-iea-oil-idUSKBN0LE02O20150210 The United States will remain the world's top source of oil supply growth up to 2020, even after the recent collapse in prices, the International Energy Agency said, defying expectations of a more dramatic slowdown in shale growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmallCap Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 The Bakken (North Dakota) saw a significant decline in oil production reported today. January production was 1,190,490 bod, a 3.0% drop from the peak production month of December. interesting that this drop occurred in conjunction with an increase in the number of producing wells from 8945 to 9052. (The Bakken has the earliest real production figures available for oil production in the US) Here is the data from the ND gov site, please excuse the lack of tables Year Month BBLS Oil Daily Oil Wells Producing BBLS Per Well Daily Oil Per Well 2014 12 36063116 1163326 8945 4032 130 2015 1 34989917 1128707 9052 3865 125 Here is the link https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/stats/historicalbakkenoilstats.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moustachio Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 LTS is in excess of 5x D/CF i doubt they'll grow or find any way to pay it off even with asset sales. I was more wondering if they will be able to survive the year without an asset sale. They have over 5x D/CF with oil at 65$ according to a December press release: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lightstream-announces-2015-capital-program-223521477.html With oil likely to be much lower for at least the first half of the year, they are looking at much lower cash flow flows and further declining production. I wonder if they'll be able to come up with any cash flow at all for drilling. "Lightstream Appears On Track To Nearly Wipe Out Its Shareholders" http://seekingalpha.com/article/2985546-lightstream-appears-on-track-to-nearly-wipe-out-its-shareholders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moustachio Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 The Bakken (North Dakota) saw a significant decline in oil production reported today. January production was 1,190,490 bod, a 3.0% drop from the peak production month of December. interesting that this drop occurred in conjunction with an increase in the number of producing wells from 8945 to 9052. (The Bakken has the earliest real production figures available for oil production in the US) Here is the data from the ND gov site, please excuse the lack of tables Year Month BBLS Oil Daily Oil Wells Producing BBLS Per Well Daily Oil Per Well 2014 12 36063116 1163326 8945 4032 130 2015 1 34989917 1128707 9052 3865 125 Here is the link https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/stats/historicalbakkenoilstats.pdf Yeah, its only one data point now, but I expect we'll see further drops going forward. Some officials from the ND government (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/12/north-dakota-oilprices-idUSL1N0UQ0P020150112 ) along with plenty of people from the industry have said that they expect production to remain steady or grow for some time even with low oil prices. It sounded like wishful thinking to me and I expect slight declines in production most of this year, but I didn't want to dare question the competence of government officials or O&G executives that want to pretend that their production isn't going to go down. Obviously there is only the potential for such rapid declines in production in tight oil plays, so I find the following link informative. It has rig counts for the tight oil plays and production numbers from those plays: http://www.artberman.com/oil-prices-dont-change-because-of-rig-count/ An interesting dynamic in the Bakken is the potential of wells being drilled, but not completed. I don't know how many companies are doing that, but a company I've followed a little is doing just that: http://thebakken.com/articles/1017/triangle-petroleum-unveils-2015-well-completion-schedule The company has delayed all operated well completions until May or longer, “subject to commodity prices and gaps in the RockPile third-party completion schedule.” Although delayed, Triangle plans to have up to 24 wells waiting on completion as of May 2015. The 2016 budget “allows Triangle to respond quickly to any improvement in commodity pricing and to return daily production numbers to at or above December 31, 2014 exit rate numbers.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opihiman2 Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 Bumping up an old thread as a tale of caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enoch01 Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 Bumping up an old thread as a tale of caution. Are you short anything? Or were you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 I sure as hell am not short anything. I have no idea where this thing goes. I'm just sitting back and enjoying the show. The prices are very weird and I don't know whether anyone knows what they're doing. I bought CNQ when it was at 30 and oil was at 90 and everyone was saying that it was a bad idea. Sold that at 45 when I couldn't see what the point was anymore. Now oil is close to 40 (WCS oil is less than that) and CNQ is at 33. And a lot of people are saying it may be a good time to buy in. What up with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 I bought some Arc Resources ARX, and Whitecap - WCP, in the past few days. Both announced solid Q2 results and are well financed to last a good long while at these prices. Arc is an old one for me - pretty well managed. Wcp - I have been watching since the fall. I am in the getting to know you phase. I wouldn't say I am bullish on oil prices. I think we are starting to see the sorting of the survivors from the non-survivors. Both of the above will make it through the lower price regimen and still get by. Any increase in prices, especially gas will be gravy. There is no way i would go all in on oil stocks. These are small positions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 well if you are not bullish on energy prices why would you buy those names? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now