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Eric Nuttal on Market Call.

He is inmo the top O&G Analyst in Canada.

Up 45% YTD.

 

I own PWE and Manitok and keep kicking the tires around Lightstream. 3 Names he hates....

 

Eric Nuttal is a terrible investor

 

 

Let's see....79.7% in the last year, 19.2% over the last 5 years versus a benchmark that did 7.7% over the last 5 years. I should be so terrible....

 

http://www.sprott.com/products/sprott-energy-fund/

 

What makes you think he is such a terrible investor??

 

cheers

Zorro

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Penn West Announces Management-Initiated Internal Review of Accounting Practices and Decision to Restate Certain Historical Financial Statements

Jul 29, 2014

 

No impact on previously disclosed cash and debt balances

 

Penn West anticipates possible delay in reporting second quarter financial results

 

 

http://pennwest.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=27585&item=135220

 

 

 

Not good.

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Penn West Announces Management-Initiated Internal Review of Accounting Practices and Decision to Restate Certain Historical Financial Statements

Jul 29, 2014

 

No impact on previously disclosed cash and debt balances

 

Penn West anticipates possible delay in reporting second quarter financial results

 

 

http://pennwest.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=27585&item=135220

Not good.

 

Would have preferred a billion dollar plus asset sale, but you dont always get what you want. Operationally the results were excellent. I think this is largely noise, but wise they put a bit more color behind it. The release is quite vague and Mr. Market will run with it inmo.

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I dont know. Mr Market is funny.

 

Could see up to 10% or 2%. I think they are getting all the bad news out, and are killing it operationally. Lots to love in that report, but the details get lost with news like this.

Oil companies tend to trade on cash flow metrics. Personally the numbers dont matter much. The issue is PWE will be in the dog house for 4 quarters longer. Canada is filled with great ideas. The leaps give you good leverage on a turn, but why bother is what most analyst will say. I cant blame them, they cant recommend the idea with leaps and its not so attractive without them.

 

 

 

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Guest 50centdollars

Sum of the part on PWT:

Sum-of-the-Parts Net Asset Value Summary

NAV Per Share

Cardium Upside $4.51

Viking Upside 1.38

Spearfish Upside 0.61

Northern Carbonates Upside 1.36

Cordova Shale Gas Project 0.42

Seal Oil Sands Project 0.69

Combined Development Upside $8.97

2P Reserve Blowdown (net of debt) 5.61

Net Asset Value Per Share @ 10% $14.58

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Wow quite the reaction on PWT. I'm no accountant, but from reading what they are saying (assuming it isn't smoke). It doesn't affect cash or debt numbers, so they were just allocating expenses wrong to make things look better in the past than they were. If numbers are changed to make the past look worse, that hardly changes were the company is headed now. They sure have made some spectacular gains in the time to drill wells.

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Not a nice last few weeks on this sector, lots of gain wiped out. I got back in LTS.TO and PWT.TO, nice that they got a few deals done while the sector is hot.

 

Added to MEI as well, seems on track for 7500 exit, that alone worth the current market cap is not more.

 

The pricing deck is still robust for Canadian producers. Are you guys still ride this trend?

 

Keystone and LNG are two remote but nice potential positives for this sector..

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well, the market never take it easy on lowering of guidance especially during the time when the sector is so weak. LTS down 8%. The funds flow is the same because of the higher commodities pricing and lower capex.

 

Ugly last couple months, hope you guys did take some profits off before the correction.

 

 

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well, the market never take it easy on lowering of guidance especially during the time when the sector is so weak. LTS down 8%. The funds flow is the same because of the higher commodities pricing and lower capex.

 

Ugly last couple months, hope you guys did take some profits off before the correction.

 

 

 

indeed a ugly time right now. i sold my pwe at around 35% gain but go back in manitok and lightstream to early. in the red now. also buy back pwe at the huge drop

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Manitok has couple top producing wells in June in an Alberta publication. No link.  Found that interesting as usually these type of wells don't come from company that trade at low multiple.

 

Not sure if anyone was listening to lightstream call, but many push for a buyback. Will be interesting. I think they may if they get a good bid on its 4.5k 90 percent oil asset

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If I wasn't holding both PWT and LTS it would be funnier. But the buzz was always that not having their debt under control was holding them back in the market. Both have been making significant gains in getting their debt under control, but now there are smaller, almost insignificant things that are the focus.

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PWT still needs to sell about 1 billion of assets and LTS probably around 400m to get their debt in line with others.

 

After that, it will be all execution and commodities price. On execution front, PWT seems already becoming the best in its class. LTS is right to call off Swan Hills for now, why waste capex if you don't know what is going on, I hope those wells will be put back on the capex shortly.

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Manitok has couple top producing wells in June in an Alberta publication. No link.  Found that interesting as usually these type of wells don't come from company that trade at low multiple.

 

Not sure if anyone was listening to lightstream call, but many push for a buyback. Will be interesting. I think they may if they get a good bid on its 4.5k 90 percent oil asset

 

Alert do you recall which publication that was? I'd like to look it up if possible. Daily oil bulletin, maybe?

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I have a pretty deep familiarity with one of the projects on that list, and their numbers are not even close to reality. Critical thinking also suggests consider the bias of the source. From the "objectives" page of carbontracker.org, who generated this:

 

We know that the financial markets can be structurally flawed, and that an inadequate response to climate change is one of these failings.

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

4x after the revised guidance.  Not expensive but not as cheap as it used to be.

 

I missed their call and seems there is no replay. Anyone know how the issues will fix itself over time?

 

Debt is up, dont think it can do 100m capex next year.

 

Entice is mixed bag so far. The only thing positive is they can now buy back more shares. 7k average was never priced in.

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