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Marks on Equities


racemize
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At the Value Investor Conference, Howard Marks gave the post lunch talk.  Besides being an excellent talk, here are two highlights:

 

Says Equities are perhaps in the 7th inning (just before the too high point) and that he would recommend "proceeding with caution".

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Honestly, it is very hard to sum up Marks because he always says the same thing, but with very subtle differences (though I think the subtle differences are very important).

 

His talk was on "the Human Side of Investing" and he focused (as always) on risk and the pendulum of greed and fear. 

 

I was fortunate to get him to sign my book and give him my own essay on risk (hopefully he will read it)!

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I can see how you can look around and see prices are high, but I don't know how you can have any idea where it ends.  Of course he knows far more than I probably ever will about this.

 

The people I think are really getting screwed in all this are older people.  People who are in their saving years can buy stocks, and they may get hammered in the near term, but they'll end up with a decent return on it years down the road.

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I can see how you can look around and see prices are high, but I don't know how you can have any idea where it ends.  Of course he knows far more than I probably ever will about this.

 

I don't think he meant this as a call on how soon it would end, just a measurement of the degree of emotion and pricing in the current market.   

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I can see how you can look around and see prices are high, but I don't know how you can have any idea where it ends.  Of course he knows far more than I probably ever will about this.

 

The people I think are really getting screwed in all this are older people.  People who are in their saving years can buy stocks, and they may get hammered in the near term, but they'll end up with a decent return on it years down the road.

 

Yea - what Howard actually said was - If you pressed him on where we are at, he would tend to think we are int he 7th inning or so, slightly

on the right side swing of the pendulum. He said these thing are incredibly difficult to predict, and you should view anyone skeptically

that is so sure exactly where we are at.

 

So your comment above really agrees with his view - you can't be too sure.

 

The Mark's presentation was great.

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BTW - does anyone know what time the Markel meeting is today?

 

I am assuming it is at the Marriott by Borshiems, but I have not be able to locate any details.

 

Thanks in advance if you know.

 

my invitation says Hilton at 10:00.

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