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luck

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Everything posted by luck

  1. thanks abyli. probably a good way to go about it.
  2. anyone know of the tax/accounting implications related to $PSH in the netherlands?
  3. People aren't hating on Philly, they're just giving you their opinions. If you LOVE Philly, go for the adventure. I would never do such a thing, but to each their own.
  4. don't leave NYC area for Philly and uproot the family. NYC's the greatest city in the world. Philly is not even close (only my opinion).
  5. With respect to the Fiat NYSE listing, anyone (phil, muscleman, far east, packer or any other Fiat holders) know if: 1. The Over-The-Counter ADR shares listed under FIATY are automatically converted into FCA shares on the NYSE if approved? 2. Does conversion from FIATY to FCA on the NYSE require voting yes on the proxy or will it happen even if one refrains from voting? Trying to figure out if I should do anything with this proxy given the deadline to vote of July 25th. Thanks in advance.
  6. my wife's 401k has done decently in $FCNTX mostly & no fees. i figure if will danoff learned from peter lynch, might be okay to have a small percent of the net worth in more growth-driven or PEG plays. but, that said, probably a good idea to turn it into an ira at some point.
  7. i've always believed in buying a brand new car - don't need to worry about what the previous owner did with the car & warranties off the bat. to me, it feels great to drive around in a new one. that said, i can understand how it might feel better to get a great deal on a used one though.
  8. bill miller's performance numbers are definitely all over the place. that said, i think ed hyman's calls have been pretty good across time (30+ years).
  9. I agree. McMansions, huge living spaces, etc. are not as important, in my opinion, as functionality, and decent style.
  10. good points on vertical advantages no free lunch & china parsad. china will work out its issue within ten years in my opinion. in my opinion, this is more of a buy on extreme pullback play and only if one has an extremely longterm horizon. management is indeed excellent. i've also spoken with jordan and they are looking at the downside in microscopic detail and trying to avert it.
  11. hi muscleman- can't figure out who to use to buy international stocks. my broker doesn't even trade anything non-adr. any recommendations on a broker for buying international stocks on a foreign exchange? exorf on the orc is massively illiquid it seems. also, do you know what the tax considerations are for buying exor on the italian exchange? thx in advance.
  12. for what it's worth, here's some perspective from buffett on the shipping industry: http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/04/warren-buffett-bearish-on-shipping-industry/
  13. thanks plan for the marks video link. i just read "the most important thing illuminated", which had some interesting annotations by joel greenblatt (had him as a prof at columbia b school and as great a guy as he is an investor). i can't really jive with howard mark's approach for some reason, but i did get a few takeaways: 1. patient opportunism. let the game come to you, don't go on tilt like a gambler. buffett quote in the book about mr. market being a pitcher throwing gm at 49!, etc. you don't have to hit and just stand up to bat and score your runs in the dark of the night. 2. specializing in niches and people. this quote means different things to different people. it immediately got me a little more focused on the compounder/operator stocks (lbtya, tdg) where you know the capital allocation history has been stellar.
  14. hi gio- thanks for the attachment. appreciate your posts. not sure if you're in america, but wondering which broker you'd recommend for investing in third point offshore? as of now, i can't even trade anything other than adr's with my broker. also, are there any tax considerations or fee considerations for those investing outside of england? thanks much in advance!
  15. i think at some point, a different international digital currency perhaps and gold will be flipped around on that chart. i don't know if i'd want to own a ton of gold in the age of disruption.
  16. it seems like these resources are worthwhile: barron's, forbes, fortune, value line, morningstar any of the buffett-related blogs - buffetfaq etc. i shut down premium cable - found myself watching too much espn and cnbc didn't prove too fruitful. that said, i turn on sirius in the car if buffett or tepper is speaking.
  17. thx vinod. your response is the first response that provides a framework. when i posted this, i knew that most value investors believe in averaging down, but i was more interested in if they have an approach to how they average down - is it systematic in any way a la phil town and the "stockpiling/back up the truck in increasing increments" approach?
  18. thx for the perspectives. it seems like averaging down is the way to go. need to develop the mindset. not to say that my approach hasn't worked entirely, +26% in the last three months, since i started averaging up after severe pullback (also, causality behind returns can be explained by other variables). but i am guessing if i had averaged down, returns would have been greater. palantir, an example of a stock where i have taken a small .5% position is sandridge at an average price of $5.69. my intrinsic value range is $10 to $12, but i tend to think in terms of probabilities. thus, due to risks related to spending by the company, etc., i don't see the arrival at the intrinsic value range as a certainty, but rather an 85-90% probability within three years. to twa's point, i should probably only be buying securities akin to the buffett punchcard where there is an even higher degree of conviction. sandridge stock is now at $5.20. thus the gap to fair value has widened. i can see their is forced selling from executives, ward, etc., so i suppose i should be buying if i had enough conviction.
  19. my broker charges pretty low per share commissions, so i pretty much average and average out. what i've been doing is waiting for margin of safety of 50% plus and hopefully extreme pullback and then averaging in on trend confirmation the other way as a stock goes up. the averaging in process keeps the stress low it seems. if the stock stops going in the upward direction of the trend off the initial pullback, i stop adding and wait quite awhile to figure out what's happening. i think maybe a better approach is to stockpile or average down in greater amounts as the stock is falling after taking a small initial position. phil town talks about this in "payback time". for some reason, i don't have the guts to do this yet. wondering how those folks who average in and average out go about doing it? there has to be a better way than what i'm doing. thanks in advance!
  20. wondering if anyone has any opinions on private equity firm apollo global management? it seems like they've been buying back a ton. the stock has run up dramatically and then pulled back a little recently.
  21. that's pretty nuts. amazon on average seems to have a 33 to 50 percent discount on many items i'm finding at barnes and noble and best buy. this was a great reminder for me to increase my showroom shopping. also, i try not to buy anything online (outside of amazon) without first looking for a coupon code. i usually find i can save around 10 to 20% if i just look for a code for about a minute, but forget to do this.
  22. luck

    WTF!

    Wow. I actually thought his book was pretty good. Sad scenario. Hope his investors become aware of this, don't get hurt and are able to get their money out.
  23. i decided to give fnsax a spin awhile back. i took profits in part due to the 1.35% expense fee. in general, i also haven't been too impressed with mutual funds outside of those run by bruce berkowitz - fairx and faafx. i agree with twa, i think best to cherry pick a few fundamentally sound companies off the list for further review or use it as another confirmation or data point in overall analysis.
  24. interesting take on amazon. a few smart value investors i know seem to be short amazon. definitely, a company i wouldn't short at this point. sounds like buffett thinks highly of bezos as well. http://www.pymnts.com/briefing-room/commerce-3-0/the-innovation-project-2013/warren-buffett-video/
  25. Wondering if anyone recommends any approaches, indicators or books for technical analysis? All of my investing is fundamentally driven, but to enter and exit trades in value stocks, thinking it might be beneficial to learn a little bit more about the technical analysis side of things. From the books I've read, most research indicates that technical analysis is not that effective. However, a few mean reversion tools such as rsi(2) oversold indicators do have some positive studies from what i remember. SAC Capital uses the DeMark indicators it seems. I also read a research paper a few months ago discussing positive results related to a study of the 50-200 moving average crossover. Thx in advance for your perspectives. Happy new year to all!
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