racemize Posted May 3, 2013 Posted May 3, 2013 At the Value Investor Conference, Howard Marks gave the post lunch talk. Besides being an excellent talk, here are two highlights: Says Equities are perhaps in the 7th inning (just before the too high point) and that he would recommend "proceeding with caution".
asw310 Posted May 3, 2013 Posted May 3, 2013 thanks for these quick updates from conference! I wish I could have made it out this weekend. Would love to hear more about marks' remarks if you have time/desire...
racemize Posted May 3, 2013 Author Posted May 3, 2013 Honestly, it is very hard to sum up Marks because he always says the same thing, but with very subtle differences (though I think the subtle differences are very important). His talk was on "the Human Side of Investing" and he focused (as always) on risk and the pendulum of greed and fear. I was fortunate to get him to sign my book and give him my own essay on risk (hopefully he will read it)!
JEast Posted May 3, 2013 Posted May 3, 2013 Racemize - flag me down as I am wearing a red sweater. Nice to meet fellow boardmembers.
matjone Posted May 3, 2013 Posted May 3, 2013 I can see how you can look around and see prices are high, but I don't know how you can have any idea where it ends. Of course he knows far more than I probably ever will about this. The people I think are really getting screwed in all this are older people. People who are in their saving years can buy stocks, and they may get hammered in the near term, but they'll end up with a decent return on it years down the road.
racemize Posted May 3, 2013 Author Posted May 3, 2013 I can see how you can look around and see prices are high, but I don't know how you can have any idea where it ends. Of course he knows far more than I probably ever will about this. I don't think he meant this as a call on how soon it would end, just a measurement of the degree of emotion and pricing in the current market.
racemize Posted May 3, 2013 Author Posted May 3, 2013 He also indicated areas to look for (things that are out of favor) Don't remember all, but at least: Shipping commercial real estate (not A cities/A buildings)
giofranchi Posted May 5, 2013 Posted May 5, 2013 thanks for these quick updates from conference! +1 :) giofranchi
luck Posted May 5, 2013 Posted May 5, 2013 for what it's worth, here's some perspective from buffett on the shipping industry: http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/04/warren-buffett-bearish-on-shipping-industry/
cubsfan Posted May 5, 2013 Posted May 5, 2013 I can see how you can look around and see prices are high, but I don't know how you can have any idea where it ends. Of course he knows far more than I probably ever will about this. The people I think are really getting screwed in all this are older people. People who are in their saving years can buy stocks, and they may get hammered in the near term, but they'll end up with a decent return on it years down the road. Yea - what Howard actually said was - If you pressed him on where we are at, he would tend to think we are int he 7th inning or so, slightly on the right side swing of the pendulum. He said these thing are incredibly difficult to predict, and you should view anyone skeptically that is so sure exactly where we are at. So your comment above really agrees with his view - you can't be too sure. The Mark's presentation was great.
cubsfan Posted May 5, 2013 Posted May 5, 2013 BTW - does anyone know what time the Markel meeting is today? I am assuming it is at the Marriott by Borshiems, but I have not be able to locate any details. Thanks in advance if you know.
Packer16 Posted May 5, 2013 Posted May 5, 2013 For what its worth, if you read the article Buffet's view is on the shipbuilding industry not the shipping industry. Packer
racemize Posted May 5, 2013 Author Posted May 5, 2013 BTW - does anyone know what time the Markel meeting is today? I am assuming it is at the Marriott by Borshiems, but I have not be able to locate any details. Thanks in advance if you know. my invitation says Hilton at 10:00.
cubsfan Posted May 5, 2013 Posted May 5, 2013 Racemize - thanks much - I would have been messing around way on the other side of town!
racemize Posted May 5, 2013 Author Posted May 5, 2013 Racemize - thanks much - I would have been messing around way on the other side of town! how long do these things go?
cubsfan Posted May 5, 2013 Posted May 5, 2013 Sorry - I've never been to the meeting. I became a MKL shareholder in December. But Bob Miles had highly recommended the meeting. I was under the impression it was about 2 hours.
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