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Druckenmiller Sees Storm Worse Than ’08 as Seniors Steal


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Druckenmiller closed down his Duquesne Capital in August 2010 and currently only manages his own money under new 13F filings called: "Duquesne Family Office LLC". One new familiar name is AIG, that he recently added.

 

Duquesne Family Office

http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.de/2012/05/duquesne-family-office-druckenmiller.html

 

http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/OwnerPortfolio.asp?FormType=OwnerPortfolio&CIK=0001536411&HolderName=DUQUESNE+FAMILY+OFFICE+LLC

 

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:)I always find these arguments rather one dimensional.  There's all sorts of counter arguments.

 

Specific to the US:

1) The military complex serves as the social welfare system at the moment.  Ask any Senator fighting to get an arms plant or army base in his jurisdiction.  A simple stroke of the pen moves the money from the military complex to other forms of social welfare.  In Canada we have more direct forms of social welfare.

2) Not all over 65s want to retire completely.  I work with several people who could have retired with full pensions but choose not to, and they still work as well as younger folks.  They make 50-60 dollars perday, after stripping out their CPP and OAS. 

3) Health care costs may not always increase.  Efficiencies in delivery via IT technology are still in their infancy.  Instead of having his heart cut open my Dad, and some older pals of mine, have had stents put in, which is an overnight procedure.  20 years ago, he would have been cut up. 

4) People working in the "entitlement industries" pay taxes as well. 

5) People receive entitlements to different degrees.  I am guessing Buffett doesn't get much old age security money, after taxes.

 

You could argue that Greece and Japan show you what happens in societies where entitlements have run amok, but they may be outliers rather than the rule.  Greece's problems are more with low tax collection, and Japan's internal prejudice prevented them from accepting immigrants.  This simply is not the case in most other Western societies. 

 

 

I guess my overall point is that present assumptions may not apply to the future.

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