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FFH and BRK


Buffett_Groupie
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Have you bought FFH and/or BRK this year, (2013)?  

226 members have voted

  1. 1. Have you bought FFH and/or BRK this year, (2013)?

    • Bought FFH only
    • Bought BRK only
    • Bought both FFH and BRK
    • Didn't buy either one


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I'm certainly not tap-dancing to work and the highlight of the day is to visit your web-site!  Here is my prediction for the two based on the conservative 15% which is below the historical return starting at book value over the next decade:

 

Year      BRK.A      FFH

2012    $110K    $370

2017    $220K    $740

2022    $440K    $1,480

 

All the best

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So BRK growing 15% a year after obtaining $360b BV in 2017? So in 2022 Berkshire's market cap will be something of one trillion (1,xx times BV)? Where is that insane growth going to come from? Some very large (future) subsidiaries would have to grow by 20-30% annually just to compensate for all the slower growing parts of Berkshire. Just not going to happen imo. In 5 years, 2-3% above S&P500 growth would be very very good but given the safety I'd be happy with the smallest outperformance if I was holding it then.

 

FFH will get it's lumpier returns that could average 15% over time but BRK is going to slow down even faster than last decade.

 

 

I bought more FFH recently at $360 and am hoping it stays down a little. Stock performance wise, this week was probably the best in years for Fairfax.  :) 15% of portfolio now, would double or triple position if the deal got better.

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as long as BRK doesn't pay a dividend and stays close to 1.2x BV I think the way to play it is as a stub stock via LEAPS.  I'm up an enourmous amount thanks to twacowfca.  If it is back down to 5% of 1.2x I'll buy more.

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