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National Oilwell Varco


giofranchi

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Based on their prelim filing numbers, spin-off might trade anywhere between 17 and 22 per share, but all depends on the multiple the market is willing to give this business given that its a low margin business.

 

2013 Pre-Tax Income: 224 mn

BV: 1802 mn

Goodwill: 333mn

Intangibles: 68mn

TBV: 1401 mn

ROE (Tangible) : 15.98%

 

Should be interesting to watch, anyone else took a look at numbers?

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Based on their prelim filing numbers, spin-off might trade anywhere between 17 and 22 per share, but all depends on the multiple the market is willing to give this business given that its a low margin business.

 

2013 Pre-Tax Income: 224 mn

BV: 1802 mn

Goodwill: 333mn

Intangibles: 68mn

TBV: 1401 mn

ROE (Tangible) : 15.98%

 

Should be interesting to watch, anyone else took a look at numbers?

 

I didn't have time yet (and do hold shares in NOV). Is it a moatless commodity business they're spinning off?

 

I bought NOV for the business with the huge moat in providing drilling equipment to oil companies. I believe this is all retained in the parent company?

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it's the distribution parts. meaning distribution as in distributing the parts to the people who need them. keeping stock and serving customers. a bit like ww grainger or wesco international/aircraft.

 

Thanks for mentioning the comparable businesses. Looks like these businesses have moats from scale and network effects the size of which will large determine the valuation. Interesting I would have imagined this business to be more commoditized.

 

Thanks again!

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it's also fun to think about buying a distributor with different products/industries targeted. the added network can be used to distribute existing product lines also.

 

i like them both. probably going to even them out after the spin if valuations stay reasonable.

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I didn't have time yet (and do hold shares in NOV). Is it a moatless commodity business they're spinning off?

 

 

I worked briefly in the oil industry and my father managed a gas plant. It is definitely not a moatless business. If your gas plant is down for a week because your supplier doesn't have a $10 part in stock, it will cost you millions of dollars. My father's plant consolidated all of their business on NOV. I believe that they entered a multi-year supply agreement. This was in the 1990s, so I would have to look at it more detail before I would be comfortable investing.

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