dcollon Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Gio, It's also worth noting that the slide doesn't factor in the private assets they own and depending on what multiples one could put on those businesses that could be another $1 bil. In addition, they have a large court win due from Vivendi that is another large chunk of cash, but since is likely to take time to actually get the cash it should be discounted at the very least. I agree with your conclusion, Imo, a good bargain! :). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 Gio, It's also worth noting that the slide doesn't factor in the private assets they own and depending on what multiples one could put on those businesses that could be another $1 bil. In addition, they have a large court win due from Vivendi that is another large chunk of cash, but since is likely to take time to actually get the cash it should be discounted at the very least. I agree with your conclusion, Imo, a good bargain! :). Great! I hadn't thought of that: my “sum of the parts” analysis was flawed, but conservative… a lucky outcome!! ;D giofranchi “As time goes on I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes. It is a mistake to think that one limits one’s risk by spreading too much between enterprises about which one knows little and has no reason for special confidence.” - John Maynard Keynes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Sirius XM: What's The Value Of The Largest Radio Giant On Earth. giofranchi “As time goes on I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes. It is a mistake to think that one limits one’s risk by spreading too much between enterprises about which one knows little and has no reason for special confidence.” - John Maynard Keynes sirius-xm-what-s-the-value-of-the-largest-radio-giant-on-earth.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cunninghamew Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 Dan Loeb's 1st quarter 2013 letter is out and has a blurb about LBTYA not Liberty media, but I thought I would share anyway "During the First Quarter, we increased our exposure to LBTYA, Europe's largest cable operator, following the announcement of its acquisition of VMED. The acquisition triggered a wave of investments by arbitrageurs, who created an attractive entry point for us by putting pressure on LBTYA shares. Initiating a position in VMED allowed us to purchase LBTYA at a material discount to its pre-announcment pro forma trading levels. Our initial interest in LBTYA was spurred by multiple catalysts and favorable geo tailwinds. Relative to the US cable market,Europe offers materially higher volume growth, lower churn, and meaningful penetration opportunity. Before yearend, we expect catalysts in the stock to include the closeing of the VMED deal, the initiation of a substantial buyback plan, and the unveiling of accretive wireless and B2B initiatives. The wireless mkt in LBYTA's key West Europe markets generates over $73 bill of annual rev, presenting LBTYA with the opportunity to redifine the MVNO market, leveraging a unique WiFi footprint, full back office and system control, and attractive quad play bundles. LBTY also appears poised to ramp up its B2B efforts, particularly in Germany. We believe Liberty’s strategic value as the primary alternative to the incumbent telecom operator’s fixed infrastructure in its markets is overlooked. The growth of mobile broadband will put pressure on carrier spectrum allocations, enhancing the importance of WiFi offload and wireline backhaul infrastructure. In a mobile broadband world, having a strong ground game is more important than ever for wireless operators and European cable players are well‐positioned with dense, upgraded fiber infrastructure offering considerable headroom. In our analysis, pro forma Liberty Global could generate more than $6 per share of free cash flow in fiscal 2014 when factoring in the considerable buyback plan announced along with the acquisition. Through VMED, we had the opportunity to create Liberty Global at slightly more than 10x FY2014 free cash flow per share, giving us the cheapest free cash flow multiple in European cable in a deal that will be free cash flow accretive and meaningfully de‐leveraging to Liberty. Despite the move in the shares following the VMED announcement, Liberty Global’s relative value remains attractive, especially given the recent appreciation of its European cable peers and the interim appreciation of slower growth, mature cable operators in the United States. We believe the shares could trade toward 15x pro forma 2014 free cash flow per share and compound at ~20% per year following the closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted April 18, 2013 Author Share Posted April 18, 2013 Interview with Mr. Malone: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100637283 giofranchi “As time goes on I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes. It is a mistake to think that one limits one’s risk by spreading too much between enterprises about which one knows little and has no reason for special confidence. One’s knowledge and experience is definitely limited and there are seldom more than two or three enterprises at any given time which I personally feel myself entitled to put full confidence.” - John Maynard Keynes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted April 23, 2013 Author Share Posted April 23, 2013 Why Has The Price Of Sirius XM Stagnated? http://seekingalpha.com/article/1360311-why-has-the-price-of-sirius-xm-stagnated?source=email_rt_article_title giofranchi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Ok I am trying to piece together the Malone empire. Here's a diagram of all the trackers and spinoffs and mergers. Hopefully I haven't made any mistakes. See attachment. http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/liberty-media/?action=dlattach;attach=1650 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted April 24, 2013 Author Share Posted April 24, 2013 Ok I am trying to piece together the Malone empire. Not easy to do! But, imo, a very good job! :) Thank you, giofranchi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Boy, just looking at the diagram makes my head hurt.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yours Truly Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Anyone got an updated estimated IV? At first glance, it may be trading below book value per the latest quarterly however that includes a lot of intangibles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcollon Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Yours Truly, I have attached some research that might help. LMCA.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmichaud Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 another noteLMC11202013.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jay21 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Yours Truly, I have attached some research that might help. Thanks for this. I've been thinking about starting a position in LMCA (more specifically, a 50-50 split between LMCA and Global). Not too comfortable with SIRI, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yours Truly Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Yours Truly, I have attached some research that might help. Thanks for this. I've been thinking about starting a position in LMCA (more specifically, a 50-50 split between LMCA and Global). Not too comfortable with SIRI, yet. LINTA looks more interesting especially with the spin/off of the QVC tracking stock in the new year but LMCA appears to be undervalued based on BV especially with the presence of the Malone/Maffei team at the helm... Thanks again Dcollon and Bmichaud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I think Maffei doesn't have very good operating or capital allocation skills. After being Microsoft's CFO (and buying Liberty's debt instead of equity... which is kind of dubious), he ran a Internet company which went bankrupt. I believe Malone values Maffei highly because Maffei is a very good negotiator and dealmaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted November 20, 2013 Author Share Posted November 20, 2013 Thanks again Dcollon and Bmichaud +1 Always can count on those two for great and useful information! :) Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I think Maffei doesn't have very good operating or capital allocation skills. After being Microsoft's CFO (and buying Liberty's debt instead of equity... which is kind of dubious), he ran a Internet company which went bankrupt. I believe Malone values Maffei highly because Maffei is a very good negotiator and dealmaker. Anything recent give you the impression he's not a good capital allocator? Probably a safe bet that years of working closely with Malone has taught him a few things... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I figure he's not that good because his company went bankrupt. (To be fair, Malone's Internet tracker back in the day did very poorly too.) Maybe he could have issued equity to have avoided that fate. As Microsoft's CFO, he could have pushed the company to: A- Issue dividends B- Use its overpriced stock to buy more companies. I know that Gates was thinking about doing a hostile takeover of Liberty's cable assets, since Gates (and many other people including Malone) thought that the smart TV would be a thing. C- Buy Liberty stock instead of its debt. Corporate debt is arguably not a great investment. The insiders of a company typically own the stock, not the debt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsAValueTrap Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I think Maffei's strengths is in understanding what Malone wants in a deal and he is good at making them. Liberty is trying to constantly: A- Defer its taxes. B- Swap its assets for better ones, in tax-free transactions. Malone is constantly trying to wheel and deal. Maffei has the charisma that Malone lacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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