"Macro" Musings

[dcollon]

Albert Edwards latest

Albert_Edwards.pdf

[giofranchi]

Until quite recently, my working assumption was that a full-blown French debt crisis would occur between 2014 and 2017. In light of the extraordinary malfeasance of the current government I have changed my mind and believe that France is now extremely near to that abyss. Fasten your seat belt in Europe – the world’s last truly Communist country is about to implode.

--Charles Gave

 

giofranchi

 

“As time goes on I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes. It is a mistake to think that one limits one’s risk by spreading too much between enterprises about which one knows little and has no reason for special confidence. One’s knowledge and experience is definitely limited and there are seldom more than two or three enterprises at any given time which I personally feel myself entitled to put full confidence.” - John Maynard Keynes

France_On_The_Brink_Of_A_Secondary_Depression.pdf

[giofranchi]

The latest article by Mr. Easterling.

 

giofranchi

 

“As time goes on I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes. It is a mistake to think that one limits one’s risk by spreading too much between enterprises about which one knows little and has no reason for special confidence. One’s knowledge and experience is definitely limited and there are seldom more than two or three enterprises at any given time which I personally feel myself entitled to put full confidence.” - John Maynard Keynes

Article-Game-Changer.pdf

[dcollon]

gio,

 

I enjoyed both of those.  I have always enjoyed Crestmont's research.  I'm looking forward to attending Mauldin's conference in a few weeks since many of the people we mention on this thread will be presenting.

 

Take care,

David

 

[giofranchi]

gio,

 

I enjoyed both of those.  I have always enjoyed Crestmont's research.  I'm looking forward to attending Mauldin's conference in a few weeks since many of the people we mention on this thread will be presenting.

 

Take care,

David

 

Hi David!

That would be a great conference! I really envy you!  :)

I am well aware of the fact that macro is usually not very useful for investing… But, paraphrasing Mr. Kyle Bass (who will be at Mauldin’s conference!), when you find yourself at the end of a 70 years old debt super cycle, even if you cannot time precisely how events will unfold, it might be useful to pay some attention.

So, always buy good quality when it is on sale and don’t worry about macro. Except at the end of a secular cycle, when you should also pay some attention to what is happening around you! At least, that is how I see it.  :)

 

Take care,

 

Giovanni

[giofranchi]

Good interview with Mr. Kyle Bass:

 

http://www.gurufocus.com/news/216094/detailed-recap-of-kyle-bass-on-bloomberg

 

giofranchi

 

“As time goes on I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes. It is a mistake to think that one limits one’s risk by spreading too much between enterprises about which one knows little and has no reason for special confidence. One’s knowledge and experience is definitely limited and there are seldom more than two or three enterprises at any given time which I personally feel myself entitled to put full confidence.” - John Maynard Keynes

 

 

 

[giofranchi]

Interview with Mr. Zell:

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-10/sam-zell-stock-market-feels-housing-market-2006

 

Enjoy!

 

giofranchi

 

“As time goes on I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes. It is a mistake to think that one limits one’s risk by spreading too much between enterprises about which one knows little and has no reason for special confidence. One’s knowledge and experience is definitely limited and there are seldom more than two or three enterprises at any given time which I personally feel myself entitled to put full confidence.” - John Maynard Keynes

 

[giofranchi]

Golden Ratio Infographic.

 

giofranchi

 

“As time goes on I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes. It is a mistake to think that one limits one’s risk by spreading too much between enterprises about which one knows little and has no reason for special confidence. One’s knowledge and experience is definitely limited and there are seldom more than two or three enterprises at any given time which I personally feel myself entitled to put full confidence.” - John Maynard Keynes

[giofranchi]

Mr. Charles Gave on "The Social Purpose Of Tax Heaven".

 

giofranchi

 

“As time goes on I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes. It is a mistake to think that one limits one’s risk by spreading too much between enterprises about which one knows little and has no reason for special confidence. One’s knowledge and experience is definitely limited and there are seldom more than two or three enterprises at any given time which I personally feel myself entitled to put full confidence.” - John Maynard Keynes

Daily+4.11.13.pdf

[giofranchi]

Interview with Professor Carmen Reinhart.

 

giofranchi

 

“As time goes on I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes. It is a mistake to think that one limits one’s risk by spreading too much between enterprises about which one knows little and has no reason for special confidence. One’s knowledge and experience is definitely limited and there are seldom more than two or three enterprises at any given time which I personally feel myself entitled to put full confidence.” - John Maynard Keynes

Harvard_Economist_The_Crisis_Isnt_Over_in_the_US_or_Europe.pdf

[giofranchi]

Interview with Mr. Paul A. Volcker.

 

giofranchi

 

“As time goes on I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes. It is a mistake to think that one limits one’s risk by spreading too much between enterprises about which one knows little and has no reason for special confidence. One’s knowledge and experience is definitely limited and there are seldom more than two or three enterprises at any given time which I personally feel myself entitled to put full confidence.” - John Maynard Keynes

Dangerous_Economic_Territory.pdf

[ASTA]

AAII had a very interesting graph and sentiment survey which just hit a record low of 19.3% bulls.

So the contrarian in me say it means stocks are a buy.

Maybe we can apply a feedback loop from Soros playbook and this implies stocks will fall.

How know's its dam hard to invest today everyone I follow are negative except Warren how thinks long term 10 years plus.

Well that's the problem with a game its not suppose to be easy to win :D

Cool graph from bespoke underneath.       

 

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2013/4/11/bulls-move-to-the-endangered-list.html

[giofranchi]

Last time I posted a presentation by Mr. Raoul Pal, someone wrote me back, saying he thought this board was a high quality and a serious one…  :(

It seems I never learn from experience!  ;D

 

giofranchi

 

“As time goes on I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes. It is a mistake to think that one limits one’s risk by spreading too much between enterprises about which one knows little and has no reason for special confidence. One’s knowledge and experience is definitely limited and there are seldom more than two or three enterprises at any given time which I personally feel myself entitled to put full confidence.” - John Maynard Keynes

Global_Macro_Investor_-_April_2013.pdf

[ubuy2wron]

Last time I posted a presentation by Mr. Raoul Pal, someone wrote me back, saying he thought this board was a high quality and a serious one…  :(

It seems I never learn from experience!  ;D

 

giofranchi

 

“As time goes on I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes. It is a mistake to think that one limits one’s risk by spreading too much between enterprises about which one knows little and has no reason for special confidence. One’s knowledge and experience is definitely limited and there are seldom more than two or three enterprises at any given time which I personally feel myself entitled to put full confidence.” - John Maynard Keynes

Well I just ended the week by reading this report I think I will now go home and hang myself. LOL Seriously this guy is a little depressing but then what can one expect from a report that is titled no gets out of here alive. I also have been getting a sense of impending doom but I feel like an incurable optimist compared to this guy.. Have a great weekend  giofranchi. Soon it will be fashion week in Milan when planeloads of young models decend on the streets of Milan and attempt to navigate the cobblestone streets in impossibly high heeled shoes.  I picture you at a sidewalk cafe waiting to offer your assistance to these poor damsels with the twisted ankles.

[giofranchi]

Have a great weekend  giofranchi. Soon it will be fashion week in Milan when planeloads of young models decend on the streets of Milan and attempt to navigate the cobblestone streets in impossibly high heeled shoes.  I picture you at a sidewalk cafe waiting to offer your assistance to these poor damsels with the twisted ankles.

 

Well, I personally much prefer little and sweet, than very tall and slender, in impossibly high heeled shoes and with the twisted ankles!! ;D ;D

 

Cheers!

 

giofranchi

 

 

[giofranchi]

Hoisington Quarterly Review - Q1 2013

 

giofranchi

 

“As time goes on I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes. It is a mistake to think that one limits one’s risk by spreading too much between enterprises about which one knows little and has no reason for special confidence. One’s knowledge and experience is definitely limited and there are seldom more than two or three enterprises at any given time which I personally feel myself entitled to put full confidence.” - John Maynard Keynes

HIM2013Q1NP.pdf

[dcollon]

SoGen's Albert Edwards (attached)

SoGen_Ablert_Edwards.pdf

[giofranchi]

Imo, not just good but great take on the state of the markets! Very good job Mr. Hay! :)

 

giofranchi

EVA+4.19.2013+NA.pdf

[vinod1]

Michael Pettis commentary on the recent Euro developments. If you have not heard of him before, his commentary is by far the best I have come across on China's growth and its potential problems.

 

http://www.mpettis.com/2013/03/21/when-do-we-call-it-a-solvency-crisis/

 

But is peripheral Europe really suffering primarily from a liquidity crisis? It would help me feel a lot better if I could find even one case in history of a sovereign solvency crisis in which the authorities didn’t assure us for years that we were facing not a solvency crisis, but merely a short-term problem with liquidity. A sovereign solvency crisis always begins with many years of assurances from policymakers in both the creditor and the debtor nations that the problem can be resolved with time, confidence, and a just few more debt rollovers.

 

...

 

Most bankers knew by 1985-86 that the region was actually suffering from a generalized solvency problem, and among the big banks JP Morgan had been taking substantial provisions all along. No one could formally acknowledge the possibility of insolvency, however, because to have done so would have required that all of banks take much greater provisions than they already had.

 

In May 1987 Citibank, after many years of replenishing its capital, was able to announce suddenly and to the great surprise of the entire market that it had decided to take a huge amount of provisions against dodgy sovereign loans. By 1989-90 the rest of the big American banks were also able to accept the write-offs without becoming technically insolvent. That is when everybody formally “discovered” that in fact the LDC debt crisis was a lot more than just a liquidity crisis.

 

This is the key point. The American bankers weren’t stupid. They just could not formally acknowledge reality until they had built up sufficient capital through many years of high earnings – thanks in no small part to the help provided by the Fed in the form of distorted yield curves – to recognize the losses without becoming insolvent.

 

And this matters to Europe. There is simply no way European banks, especially in Germany, can acknowledge the possibility of sovereign insolvency until they, too, have built up enough capital to absorb the losses.

 

Vinod

 

[giofranchi]

A Visual History Of Asset Bubbles.

 

giofranchi

[giofranchi]

The long history of long (10-years US treasuries) yields.

 

giofranchi

[valueorama]

The long history of long (10-years US treasuries) yields.

 

giofranchi

 

Based on that chart, it looks like we will be in low rate environment for a long time. I just guessing based on reversion to mean. Mean rate seems to be around 6%. So, rates stayed too high for too long. :) now we must suffer the low rates for similar period to compensate. :)

 

I lose nothing by making such predictions. :)

[giofranchi]

IceCap Asset Management April 2013.

 

giofranchi

IceCap-Asset-Management-Limited-Global-Markets-2013.4.pdf

[Zorrofan]

Hoisington Quarterly Review - Q1 2013

 

giofranchi

 

“As time goes on I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes. It is a mistake to think that one limits one’s risk by spreading too much between enterprises about which one knows little and has no reason for special confidence. One’s knowledge and experience is definitely limited and there are seldom more than two or three enterprises at any given time which I personally feel myself entitled to put full confidence.” - John Maynard Keynes

 

 

Thanks for posting all of this - it is much appreciated!

 

cheers

Zorro

[giofranchi]

 

Thanks for posting all of this - it is much appreciated!

 

cheers

Zorro

 

You are very welcome!  :)

 

giofranchi