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Green shoots? Really?


Guest kawikaho
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I wish...Sardar Biglari had a wonderful quote in his 2007 Chairman's letter:

As Wal-Mart founder Sam Walton once said, “Most everything I’ve done I’ve copied from someone else.”

 

-O

 

Did you put that together Omagh?  Nice!  Cheers!

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This is the point in the change from recession to recovery where questions arise about how quickly the recovery will occur.  I posted an essay from John Train a couple of times and I'm finding it's good for my outlook to re-read it.  Train's essay is part fiction, but it captures his experiences as a money manager in several business cycles.  My take on his essay is that we're still in the "Early Surge".  There was a quote by Nouriel "Dr Doom" Roubini a few weeks ago about "pushing on a rope", but it seems to have disappeared from the available news stories.  Buffett's awesome quote today that getting nine women pregnant won't make a baby in one month was classic!

 

http://web.mac.com/thebroadside/T/Broadside/Entries/1994/11/13_Twelve_Choruses_of_a_Market_Cycle_files/market-choruses-TB.gif

2. The Early Surge: "Things look better but it's too early to buy. Wait for a pull-back."

 

The government, shocked by the decline and, as always, beset by the clamour to "do something", announces public works and other stimuli which, of course, will not take effect until many months later.

 

So, the pundits declare that, this time, the stimulus isn't working. "It's like pushing on a rope," they say.

 

Months go by and prices rise. A few mutual funds will have been started during the bottom area: indeed, you read that the Hercules fund has risen 75 per cent in six months.

 

When "everybody" is waiting for a buying opportunity, there will ordinarily be no buying opportunity.

 

And here's the Buffett story that I nicked the picture from...

http://web.mac.com/thebroadside/T/Broadside/Entries/2009/3/20_Buffett_Naked.html

 

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