What if it is 1982 all over again?

[berkshiremystery]

tombgrt,

Horizon Kinetics has just released its Q2 Commentary. Probably, you have already read it, but I attach it anyway. On page 10 they write: “The largest holding in many of our strategies, and that which probably attaches to the greatest number of predictive attributes, is Liberty Media Corporation.”

Do you own LMCA? I have nothing but the utmost respect for Mr. Malone, but I haven’t invested alongside him yet… He is 71, probably won’t go on compounding for the next 20 years, but, let’ say, 10 years, at the rate he is used to compounding capital, are perfectly fine with me!!

If you own LMCA, how do you value the company? You think it is undervalued right now?

Thank you very much!

 

 

No, I don't own LMCA. Was going to read the letter later this week, always a great read! There are so many things investing-related that are worth reading that it tends to pile up at times.

 

I should mention that you won't get much value from me. I just started investing in late 2010 (I'm really nowhere yet) and am actually still a student. Hope to graduate in a month tho. ;) The hunt for the bargain and thirst for knowledge make my clock tick!

 

Yes! But . . . "Never smile at a crocodile!"

 

      ------ Captain Hook

 

Tedd Weschler favored LMCA at Peninsula, of course he is currently winding down his fund after he took the job at Berkshire.

http://holdings.nasdaq.com/asp/OwnerPortfolio.asp?FormType=OwnerPortfolio&CIK=0001265816&HolderName=PENINSULA+CAPITAL+ADVISORS+LLC

[giofranchi]

I just want to say that it's always nice to see civil discussions here. Not that it's out of the ordinary here -- most discussions are very respectful. But it's still nice to see that it doesn't descend into ad hominem and such.. It's certainly not like that on many other internet forums :)

 

Liberty,

I am here to listen to people who DO NOT AGREE with me! People who agree with my viewpoint are flattering, but much less useful! So, I will always try to explain and delve deep into what I think, but I will always ask for someone to prove me wrong too. That’s what I really seek! And should I be rude with someone who gives me what I look for?!

 

To be clear, when I say I am long North America, I basically mean that I am long the USD. And these are the reasons:

 

1) If you haven’t already read it, I highly recommend “The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depression” by Irving Fisher (find it in attachment): he basically says that there are all kinds of economic troubles and uncertainties, and then there is debt. Once we have let the system get too much levered, trouble inevitably follows. Therefore, all the developed world is still in great trouble, and, in a world of trouble (see the new issue of the Gary Shilling Insight attached) “the buck is the world’s safe heaven”.

2) The Euro Zone is in worse shape than the US (see the attachment US vs. EZ), and the Euro Zone has got a serious problem of leadership: we do not even have a Treasury! Who will take the necessary decisions? Mr. Draghi? Mrs. Merkel? Mr. Hollande? The Bundesbank? Mr. Monti? Mr. Rajoy? …A committee? Yes, probably a committee… and a committee never works!! If I remember well, it was Henry Kissinger who asked: “Who do you call, when you need Europe?”. Especially in a crisis, leadership is paramount! 

3) The US has the clear possibility to become energy independent. And what if a trading deficit becomes a trading surplus?

 

As far as I am concerned, Gary Shilling’s investments recommendations represent very good value in an era of deleveraging, even though they do not strictly adhere to the Graham’s value investing philosophy.

“I don’t take break in my search for value” – Michael Burry

 

giofranchi

THE_DEBT-DEFLATION_THEORY_OF_GREAT_DEPRESSIONS.pdf

insight-0812ab.pdf

US_vs_EZ.pdf

[giofranchi]

Although my long-term investment results were clearly above average, I finally realized that in most environments I could never hope to match the few true super-stars.

 

As a result, for the last 22 years, over half of our managed assets have been in owner-operated companies like BRK, FFH, LUK, etc.  The advantages have been superior returns, relative safety and less trading, which results in lower taxes and less work.

 

This board of many like-minded and wise members has been a good source of ideas concerning these gems.  If I find any new companies managed by the “best allocators of capital”, I plan to share these ideas with you and hope that many of you will do the same for us.

 

Dan

 

Dan,

your great experience would be a tremendous gift to us all! I am really looking forward to sharing ideas with you, and to studying your recommendations!

As you might read in the Pershing Square 2012 Q1 Letter (see attachment),  later this year Bill Ackman is planning to launch the private phase of Pershing Square, which will be listed on the London Stock Exchange.

Watch out!

 

giofranchi

Pershing-Square-Q1-2012-investor-letter.pdf