Why the continued slide In Fairfax share price?

[SI]

What does this mean for Prem, the Chairman of the board, visa-a-vis studying his strategic options and the AMZN/FB rumored phone. Clearly as an insider going to 10%, should we all take that to imply there is no monetization event of the patents in the near future to those trying to build there first phone reportedly this holiday season?

 

Could he have upped his stake while reviewing alternatives? Could he have upped his stake before the investment banks delivered that review? Anyone know what the implications are?

 

Disclosure: I have no RIMM investment but am a FFH shareholder.

[Parsad]

What does this mean for Prem, the Chairman of the board, visa-a-vis studying his strategic options and the AMZN/FB rumored phone. Clearly as an insider going to 10%, should we all take that to imply there is no monetization event of the patents in the near future to those trying to build there first phone reportedly this holiday season?

 

Could he have upped his stake while reviewing alternatives? Could he have upped his stake before the investment banks delivered that review? Anyone know what the implications are?

 

Disclosure: I have no RIMM investment but am a FFH shareholder.

 

Fairfax averages in and out of positions.  They probably doubled down to bring their cost down, while Prem works with the board and management to try and right the ship.  I don't think it means anything one way or the other...just that he has a very significant vested interest in RIMM's future and they've reduced their average cost.  Cheers!

[giofranchi]

Good morning!

I am from Milan, Italy, I have just subscribed and this is my first post.

It seems to me that there is a lot of bearishness on Fairfax right now...

I had 30% of my firm's capital invested in Fairfax and I have recently sold some shares: now 22% of my firm's capital is in Fairfax.

I have sold some shares, just because a 30% position was too big! But I am definitely bullish on Fairfax! Fairfax at book value looks like a bargain to me!

We all know Ben Graham's advice to "buy a share as if you were buying a piece of a business". Well, in a secular bear market I think that is at least as important as the other, even better known, Ben Graham's motto: "margin of safety".

I manage a business every day and there is not a single doubt in my mind of the importance of partnering with people you like, admire, and trust.

I understand that AIG at half book value might have a greater margin of safety than Fairfax at book value... But who is running AIG? What are his goals? Which process does he follow? Is he consistent with the past, or has he changed philosophy? Why should he be succesful in the future?

What I know is that Fairfax at book value offers a substantial margin of safety (given its past results, Fairfax should be trading at 1,4 / 1,5 per book value), and I also know that there are very few people I would be as glad to partner with, as with Mr. Watsa.

He has integrity, he has good sense of humour, he knows a bargain when he sees one, he is opportunistic, he has a will made of steel and never follows the crowd, he is, in short, one of the best value investor I can think of!

I really think Prem Watsa is the person you want to partner with in a secular bear market!

As an aside, I didn't invest the proceeds from the sale of Fairfax shares in AIG. Instead, I made an investment in Greenlight Re. The opportunity to partner with David Einhorn at book value is as appealing to me, as the opportunity to partner with Prem Watsa at book value. And, at least in a secular bear market, I prefer both to AIG at half book value. In a secular bull market I might think differently, but we are still in a secular bear, right? First: do no harm!

[twacowfca]

Welcome to the board, giofranchi.  FFH is going through a dry spell now, but their long term creation of value for shareholders has few equals.  I think that their defensive position is merely early, not wrong. 

 

Best wishes.

[giofranchi]

Thank you, twacowfca! It's a pleasure!

 

First, I would like to add just a thought on what I wrote in my first post.

Howard Marks, one more manager I really like to partner with, has written: Investment success doesn't come from "buying good things", but rather from "buying things well".

I believe that is true for almost any investments, but, when it comes to the insurance business, I am not so sure...

Right now I am reading "Confidence Game - How a Hedge Fund Manager Called Wall Street's Bluff", which I highly recommend, about the story of Bill Ackman and his short position in MBIA Inc.: clearly, insurance, if properly managed, can be a cash flow machine (Berkshire, Fairfax), but management can also do crazy things and, when it happens, true disasters follow (MBIA Inc.)!

I have come to believe that, if you want to invest safely in an insurance company, you must know what the management is doing, why and how.

 

Second, I would like to comment on the RIM investment.

Sincerely, I think it is over publicized and it is getting too much attention. And that recently might have been a drag on Fairfax stock performance.

As far as I know, at the end of 2012 Q1 Fairfax had buoght 26.848.500 shares in RIM, at an average cost of $26,07/share. Last week Mr. Watsa doubled down, buying 25.000.000 shares more, at an average cost of $7,00/share. That leaves Fairfax with 51,8 millions shares of RIM, or almost 10% of the company, for a total cost of $875 millions.

In the Balance Sheet of 2012 Q1 Interim Report, Fairfax showed Portfolio investments worth $23,260.4 millions.

$875 / $23,260.4 = 3,76%.

Guiding Principles for Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited: Values: 7) We will never bet the company on any project or acquisition.

3,76% doesn't look like betting the company on RIM! Am I wrong?

Mr. Watsa and his team will make mistakes. Actually, I would be much more worried, if they were always perfect! Only Bernie Madoff got it always right... until he didn't!!!

But I am confortable with a manager who thinks and speaks and writes soundly about investing, who shares his thoughts with his shareholders, and ultimately and consistently do what he says. Even if the investment in RIM might turn out a loser.

 

Bye and take care!

[berkshiremystery]

 

Bye and take care!

 

You sound like you never want to come back to this board,..

 

Anyway,... at RIMM they currently have to do some major adjustments. But someone shouldn't forget the strong service revenues,... the overall BlackBerry subscriber base continued to grow, and the subscriber base grew in all regions except for North America. So this part of the business has definitely some good value.

[giofranchi]

 

You sound like you never want to come back to this board,..

 

 

On the contrary! It is the best board I know of!!

I really like all the criticism and the doubts that long-term Fairfax shareholders are free to express on this board! Because they are extremely useful! They help me to think hard about the Company and its future. And I reckon the very existence of this board a good reason to invest in Fairfax: it clearly shows the high quality of its shareholder base. I am positive that, if and when Fairfax really must face a serious issue, someone on this board will sound a big warning! And that is great protection! I can not think of any other company with a Message Board as good as this one (well, just with the exception of Berkshire... :))

I only beg you to be patient:

1) You all have been Fairfax shareholders for much longer then I have been, and what I write is probably old news to you!

2) My poor English...

[ValueDan38]

You are a welcome addition to the board, giofranchi.  I think that your comments were insightful and your English is very good.

 

I admire David Einhorn and would concider investing in GLRE, but it appears that he charges top hedge fund rates to manage their investments, which is many times the cost at BRK and FFH.

[Sportgamma]

Hi Giofranchi,

 

Just curious, as you are from Italy: Do you have an opinion on Exor?

 

Best regards,

 

Gísli

[giofranchi]

I admire David Einhorn and would concider investing in GLRE, but it appears that he charges top hedge fund rates to manage their investments, which is many times the cost at BRK and FFH.

 

Same problem with Biglari Holdings, right? And yet, my firm is also a Biglari Holdings shareholder! Let's just say that I don't mind paying for performance.

On page 7 of the presentation in attachment you can see that Greenlight Re increased book value per share at 11,7% CAGR from the beginning of 2005 to the end of 2011. During one of the most difficult period of the last 50 years! And I am exited to see what they can do during more normal times!

Greenlight_Re_2012_Investor_Meeting.pdf

[rranjan]

I admire David Einhorn and would concider investing in GLRE, but it appears that he charges top hedge fund rates to manage their investments, which is many times the cost at BRK and FFH.

 

Same problem with Biglari Holdings, right? And yet, my firm is also a Biglari Holdings shareholder! Let's just say that I don't mind paying for performance.

On page 7 of the presentation in attachment you can see that Greenlight Re increased book value per share at 11,7% CAGR from the beginning of 2005 to the end of 2011. During one of the most difficult period of the last 50 years! And I am exited to see what they can do during more normal times!

 

Bilgari is different and bigger problem. His track record shows that he will keep changing the rule in middle of the game. In Greenlight, you know what you are getting into but not with Bilgari. Apple to Orange comparison.

[giofranchi]

 

Just curious, as you are from Italy: Do you have an opinion on Exor?

 

 

 

Sorry, no! I don't have any particular insight in Exor. But I don't like the business climate in Italy right now... I really think the safest place to be is North America. If you haven't already read it, I strongly recomend to check out Hugh Hendry's Eclectica April 2012 Market Commentary:

 

"It has long seemed to us to be the case that this economic crisis would start in the US and make its way to Europe. That has happened. However, we also think that it will end in Asia.

... We are more bullish on US groth than most. The momentous nature of recent advances in shale oil and gas extraction and America's acceptance of the unpleasantness of debt and labour price restructuring looks to us as if it is creating yet another historic turning point.

... On the plus side we also believe that we are much closer than before to the beginning of a bull market of perhaps 1982, if not 1932, proportions. We just need the last shoe to drop."

 

And waiting for that last shoe to drop, I would stay in North America!

[giofranchi]

Bilgari is different and bigger problem. His track record shows that he will keep changing the rule in middle of the game. In Greenlight, you know what you are getting into but not with Bilgari. Apple to Orange comparison.

 

You are right!!

I like the fast food business, I like the way Sardar Biglari allocates capital and I like the fact that he is young and could go on compounding for a very long time. Anyway, his track record of changing the rule in middle of the game is undoubtedly worrisome!

My firm has a big position in Fairfax, a smaller position in Greenlight Re, and a much much much smaller position in Biglari Holdings.

[giofranchi]

Good morning rranjan!

Yesterday I was in a hurry and I could not articulate my thesis on Biglari Holdings.

 

I wrote that I like the fast food business.

 

Bill Ackman ended his presentation of Justice Holdings (Burger King) with the following judgement: “The most valuable businesses in the world are brand royalty businesses that can grow without capital investment”.

 

I also wrote that I like the way Sardar Biglari allocates capital.

 

In his 2011 letter to shareholders, he writes: “BH resembles a capital allocating vehicle, one that will continue to hold most of its assets in controlled companies. I have full responsibility over capital deployment with no constraints in structure or in preconceived strategy. Further, we have inherent advantages over other forms such as partnerships because the capital under our control is captive, unlike a hedge fund, in which capital can be withdrawn by its partners. BH possesses structural advantages — a combination of permanent capital along with controlled businesses generating cash to BH for reallocation. Such a framework allows for the opportunistic deployment of cash regardless of the state of the economy or of the stock market. Most investment funds run the risk of redemption, usually during a severe market decline, plainly the very moment capital is essential to take advantage of lower prices. In contrast, we welcome market volatility — the more extreme, the better — for in times of market dislocations myriad opportunities surface. When allocating capital, a prepared mind and a prepared financial posture are absolutes for taking advantage of a rewarding opportunity when it presents itself. Thus, we can be aggressive when others are mired in apprehension.”

Than he goes on: “Phil Cooley, Vice Chairman of BH, and I believe we have designed an ideal concept that maximizes our potential for aggrandized returns. While we do not have a fixed plan, we do have economic principles. One of them is our long-term economic credo: to maximize per-share intrinsic value. We do so by pursuing the production of cash flows and judiciously reallocating capital to earn high returns.

The combination of cash generated by operating subsidiaries along with my capital allocation work will stoke our corporate performance, which according to our criterion must outdo our benchmark, the S&P 500 Index. I think we would comfortably surpass the market if over the next decade we grow per-share intrinsic value at 15% per annum. Exceeding the S&P should be far easier than achieving 15%. Of course, there is no guarantee that we can achieve either, but we will aim for both.”

And finally he adds: “Our primary business, our preference, is to acquire businesses in their entirety; however, the stock market frequently offers better value but in noncontrolled interests. Because we take a businessperson’s perspective when investing in equities, we view stocks as ownership in a business. Out of thousands of publicly traded equities, our objective is to find a few underpriced securities, which result in extreme portfolio concentration.

We constantly cast about for stocks of businesses trading at a discount from our assessment of their worth. We will make money on a stock if we appraise its business correctly, if we purchase it at a discount, and if its price/value (p/v) converges.

Investors who take the same value approach usually depend on management to attain the peak value of the business for the benefit of its owners. But if they do not like the actions of management, their best choice is to sell the stock!

We, however, are control investors when we own a sizable block of stock engendering influence, which creates optionality and uncommon value. Control investors benefit from two additional possibilities: either to change leadership’s views or to change leadership. Correspondingly, buying stocks at “knockoff” prices — and waiting passively for them to wend their way to their worth — compose a good strategy, one we often employ. The alternative strategy is the application of control investing. When management fails to create value and the board does not hold management accountable, we may perform the work that others have left undone. Correcting underperformance is often highly lucrative once we identify an undervalued target, purchase a large stake, assume leadership positions, and then implement winning ideas.”

 

That’s exactly what I am trying to do with my own firm! Except that I do not have enough capital to be a “control investor”… If I can implement that strategy partnering with Sardar Biglari, so be it!

 

I also wrote that I like the fact he is young and could go on compounding for a very long time.

 

He is just two years older than I am: if he proves to be a reliable partner, I surely can stay invested with him for many years.

 

Finally, I like the fact he is trying to purchase an insurance company: it shows that he understand the power and importance of float, and that he is following in the footsteps of Mr. Buffett and Mr. Watsa.

 

What I do not like is valuation:

At April 2012 BH showed on its Balance Sheet a Shareholders’ Equity worth almost $310 millions. With 1.337.446 shares outstanding, that leads to a book value per share of almost $232. Yesterday BH closed at almost $365, so it is trading at 1,57 x book value.

On April 2011 BH Shareholders’ Equity was worth almost $259 millions: in the last 12 months Biglari was able to increase Shareholders’ Equity by 20%.

If Biglari is as good as Buffett, Watsa, Einhorn, Loeb, Ackman, (I know, that is a BIG IF!), and will go on compounding at 20% per annum for the next ten years, buying at 1,57 x book value means locking in a 14,65% CAGR. Not bad, but neither great! That’s why my firm’s investment in BH is much much much smaller than the investment in Fairfax: I wanted to leave a lot of room to average down. I think a big plus for Sardar Biglari is that he works with enough capital to be a control investor, but not yet with too much capital that will dampen growth.

 

Besides the compensation “changing the rule in the middle of the game” problem, do you see any other warning signs in BH? I really would like to know your thoughtful opinion.

Thank you very much!

 

[roundball100]

Comments on BH seem to belong to another thread.

[giofranchi]

roundball100, you are right! I started talking (writing) about companies other than Fairfax in the wrong place...