El Nino

[Crip1]

"No!  Hurricane season is NOT more than one-third over.  If you look at the climatology link that I posted earlier in this thread, you will see that on average there are 10 named storms per year of which 2 typically appear by August 6th."

 

Stubble,

Acknowledged that hurricane frequency throughout the 6 month season resembles a bell curve rather than a strait line. However, if in early August there had been no named storms when, typically, we should see two during that timeframe, then we novices came to the same conclusion as did the folks at NOAA. My point is that predictions are worth little more than the paper on which they are printed.

 

-Crip

[Smazz]

Well,

I'll keep this going.  ;D

Next name Hurricane is Claudette

 

But she's weakening. Bill heads to Bermuda

 

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gVWjsPEiqe1tEu2mhBIRaxxGi8owD9A4MVE02

[Uccmal]

As Crip alluded to above the hurricane season does not work according to a normal curve.  The last significant El Nino year showed very similar patterns of Hurricanes forming off Africa and heading northwest.  Nothing of significance appeared in the Gulf.  2006. 

 

This appears to be a repreat.  We are now into the peak of the season when some of the big ones would normally be heading into the Gulf.  This of course does not preclude any kind of outlier which could happen, as we all know. 

 

Stubble:  Have a look at the 2006 Hurricane tracks. 

[ubuy2wron]

A short article on seeking alpha re El Nino the article in itself is of little interest but the links it provides gives some interesting data.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/160298-chart-of-the-week-peak-hurricane-season-is-here

[JEast]

Though based on the latest update by NOAA, this El Nino is still expected to remain below average to moderate at less than +1.0C. However, it appears to be doing a job on the Atlantic Hurricane season as this is the latest in the season we have passed that I can recall. with had no landfalls to date and none in sight for another week.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

 

 

Cheers

JEast

[StubbleJumper]

Yes, it looks like the wind-shear from El Nino may have reduced the severity of the storms and pushed them off into the Atlantic Ocean rather than the US mainland.

 

As a point of interest, in an "average" season we would expect to see the sixth named storm appear on September 12th.  Today is September 10th, and Fred is the sixth storm, so in my book that would situate us as a relatively average year so far.....  A typical year has 10 storms, so there still may be a few opportunities for something nasty to roll through the Gulf.

 

SJ

[JEast]

It appears the El Nino is producing hell in Australia, see the pictures.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1215443/Australia-dust-storm-sweeps-eastern-coast.html

 

 

Cheers

JEast