Jump in housing starts points to recovery

[ERICOPOLY]

I went as far back as I could find data broken down by age.  Unfortunately it only goes back to 1995:

http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/qtr195/q195tab7.html

 

I find that all the meaningful difference is in the age 65+ category!

 

All the other age categories report home ownership levels below those reported in 1995.  Except for the under-35 category, where there was 2/10 of a percent difference in favor of 2011.

 

Overall home ownership rates:

1995 Q1:  64.2%

2011 Q1:  66.4%

 

 

Age less than age 35:

 

1995:  37.7%

2011:  37.9%

 

Age 35 - 44:

 

1995:  64.9%

2011:  64.4%

 

Age 45 - 54:

 

1995:  74.9%

2011:  73.1%

 

Age 55 - 64:

 

1995:  79.4%

2011:  78.6%

 

Age 65+

 

1995:  77.5%

2011:  81%

 

 

[ERICOPOLY]

Summary:

 

1)  In Q1 2011, ownership rates were already below the 1995 levels for the under-65 demographic. 

2)  1995 ownership rate was itself below the long term average that you cited to be 65% (I'm taking your word for it to be 65%).

3)  no doubt the Q4 2011 ownership rate has gone even lower, as the data is now 9 months old.

4)  More foreclosures to come!  We're overshooting on the down side

 

 

Mean reversion would suggest that we are done with the foreclosures.  The home ownership rate has already oversteered to the downside.  Yet we first must oversteer even more I suppose before we get back UP to the long term rate of ownership for the under-65 demographic.

 

 

[ubuy2wron]

I went as far back as I could find data broken down by age.  Unfortunately it only goes back to 1995:

http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/qtr195/q195tab7.html

 

I find that all the meaningful difference is in the age 65+ category!

 

All the other age categories report home ownership levels below those reported in 1995.  Except for the under-35 category, where there was 2/10 of a percent difference in favor of 2011.

 

Overall home ownership rates:

1995 Q1:  64.2%

2011 Q1:  66.4%

 

 

Age less than age 35:

 

1995:  37.7%

2011:  37.9%

 

Age 35 - 44:

 

1995:  64.9%

2011:  64.4%

 

Age 45 - 54:

 

1995:  74.9%

2011:  73.1%

 

Age 55 - 64:

 

1995:  79.4%

2011:  78.6%

 

Age 65+

 

1995:  77.5%

2011:  81%

Eric I suspect that these stats are at least partially a reflection of the of the hollowing out of the middle class through the 30 year trends in taxation and trade. The simple fact is if we have trickle up as opposed to trickle down economic policies going forward we will have a reversal of home ownersip trends and an economy which is rising much faster and lifting ALL boats.

[ERICOPOLY]

Eric I suspect that these stats are at least partially a reflection of the of the hollowing out of the middle class through the 30 year trends in taxation and trade. The simple fact is if we have trickle up as opposed to trickle down economic policies going forward we will have a reversal of home ownersip trends and an economy which is rising much faster and lifting ALL boats.

 

I was reading that one of the main political contenders hopes to drop the overseas profits repatriation tax to just 5%.

 

I think doing so will only make overseas operations even more enticing and profitable -- it's just obvious to me. 

 

So much for the middle class.