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Likelihood of recession in the next six months


shalab
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Answer this poll to see what the population is thinking  

112 members have voted

  1. 1. Answer this poll to see what the population is thinking

    • not likely (
    • ~50% likelihood
    • ~70% likelihood
    • ~90% likelihood
    • 100% certain


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  • 1 month later...

Time for a bump.

 

Suddenly you see multiple topics popping up about the economic malaise. Also before, there were some topics about people questioning the us dollar, others looking to hedge against a us default, etc. Sentiment seems to change but I don't know exactly what has changed in the last week and month?

 

Are others changing their view as well?  ???

 

 

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I thought a lot of people on this board held FFH shares? Anyone realize they are prepped for a major economic contraction throughout the western world? Long long dated treasuries, 85% hedged equity book, $50 billion notional exposure in protection against deflation which cost them half a billion dollars? What do people on this board see that suggests we are not going to have a recession?

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I think the economy contracted during the month of July in the USA, some of it was  consumers sitting on their wallets during the protracted debt ceiling debate a recession is 2 quarters of consecutive negative GDP, a banking crises in Europe will pretty much tip us over into negative territory as far as the US economy is concerned. I think a European banking crises is at least a 50 50 proposition therefor a recession certainly is not a faint chance it is smelling more and more like 1937. While I make those bearish statements I removed 2/3 of my hedges in the last 24 hours cuz it appears that the mkt is the very short term oversold and a lot of people have jumped into the bear camp in the last week.

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