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I bought Citi...


Mandeep
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I am guessing that the upside would be pretty good if they make it through the stress tests without being nationalized.  What did that guy Ben, something or other, say about margin of safety?

 

IMHO, the stress test and the GM trail run are preludes to nationalizing the worst banks of which Citi would certainly qualify. 

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Guest Broxburnboy

The government has been busy putting in place the structure to absorb the bad banks and the results of the stress

tests will be coming soon. They wouldn't have created these structures if they had no intention of using them ergo

Citibank, being in the worst shape should be the first to go down. Others may follow, but by the time the air clears

a lot of companies will have wiped out the equity holders and be owned by the current bondholders. Delevering

continues...

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As I've opinionated on the WFC thread ... the past week or so = dead cat bounce.

I might be wrong but I still think the US consumer is THE leading indicator. They are 20-25% of global gdp.

They say the markets lead the economy. But they certainly didn't lead sub prime.

Let's see how housing, US earnings reports and unemployment unfold over the rest of the year. My view is we're just starting to stabilize, yet how long we'll take to get a sustained recovery is anyone's guess. Nothing is going to happen unless unemployment and the consumer gets going. Without that, housing, and hence bank losses will never stabilize.

 

Bank of America fell $2.58 to $8.02 even after saying first-quarter net income more than tripled on gains from home refinancing and trading. Reserves for future loan losses increased 57 percent to $13.4 billion since the end of December. Charge-offs for uncollectible loans more than doubled to $6.94 billion from the same period a year earlier. With their loan losses it just shows that the WFC preliminary earnings release was BS. We have problems with the consumer side of the equation. This is what sh%ts me about the management financial companies ... BS.

 

History has shown that it's less costly to be late to the game, than too early. The question is do you believe this is your normal run of the mill recession? If so, then we'll have a recovery and another boom in the next few months and on we go ... merrily on our way just like our other booms after their respective bubbles. In my view, with the current downturn having only the Depression as a reference point, this recession will take a lot longer than expected to work out.

 

 

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Wow soo many responses for one day. I feel popular. :)

 

This was pure gambling guys.

I bought it b/c it was cheap. I still own it by the way.

 

I feel like warren when he bought Berkshire/Solomon and then called it useless.

This sucks!

 

 

 

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