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Canadian Military Joins Those Warning of Oil Shortages


Swizzled
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Thought I'd post this one to stimulate some discussion.  Pretty much any time someone goes away and actually crunches the numbers on decline rates on existing fields, rate of exploration success and demand growth there really is only one conclusion.....

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/264989-penn-west-a-low-risk-way-of-protecting-your-portfolio-against-high-oil-prices

 

I just can't make myself invest in oil companies when I see $100 oil prices

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"Swizzled, why would you say this?

"I just can't make myself invest in oil companies when I see $100 oil prices"

 

given the conclusions you outline it seems contradictory..."

 

If we take a quick trip back to $80 oil (which is still a high oil price really) the companies I'm looking at are likely going to be available at much better prices.  So I'm trying to be patient and wait for a better opportunity.  I can't recall any instance with any company where I didn't get an opportunity for a much better entry price than I expected I would.  So new policy.  Buy slowly because a better price is right around the corner.

 

 

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Swizzled,

 

"Buy slowly because a better price is right around the corner."

 

I used to refer to this as "Crip's Law of Investments" where the price of a security will drop by no less than 10% within 5 trading days of my purchase. Seriously, unless there is a screaming "Fat Pitch", I've adopted a similar strategy. Logically, it's not realistic to believe that one can hit the bottom consistently, but if your analysis concludes that a company is a good buy at $50, it's better at $46, obviously. One can use the volitility to their advantage.

 

-Crip

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