Bottom just fell out of japan?

[Myth465]

 

Living in Southern California, the earthquake/tsunami component of recent events has me re-evaluating my worst case scenarios.  

 

Hey I live in Houston but could get killed on a work trip to any number of locals. Also have storms to worry about.

 

For me its not worst case, its more like whats the point to all this. Be happy with what you have, and have a good time (whatever that means for you) while you are here.

 

I would be a bit shock up in Cali though. My guess is the preparations there arent even 25% of what the Japanese have in place.

 

-----

 

rmitz - Its a big broken window / bridge to nowhere. I dont think they can afford it long term. I guess the real question is can they finance it.

 

[Guest broxburnboy]

Expert assessment of the Japanese economy in light of recent events:

 

http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/

 

Cheers

[Guest broxburnboy]

Anybody looked at uranium producers? To me, the situation is similar with Deep Horizon, Uranium producers play an essential part of society.

 

It's not like countries will decomission all their nuclear plants already working. Heck, I don't see how anybody could close down one nuclear plant. It looks like a good idea today but 1 year from now nobody will care.

 

My guess on how it will turn is 6 months from now, the nuclear IAEA will  publish it's recommendations for safer nuclear plants. And these recommendations will be implemented in the next 3 years all around the globe.

 

BeerBaron

 

Uranium producers/explorers have taken a huge hit and seem to present an opportunity here. I think these companies are in a similar position to BP at the start of the Gulf Oil blowout (remember that?). Panic selling has set in that seemed to bottom today.. My favorite small cap Uranium play, Terra Ventures (T-TAS) is down 50% and I was buying this morning.

http://www.terrauranium.com/s/home.asp

[nodnub]

I am actually thinking that this might be the shock that ends the Japanese Malaise. 

 

That is what people thought in aftermath of Kobe earthquake back in 1995.

[rmitz]

I am actually thinking that this might be the shock that ends the Japanese Malaise. 

 

That is what people thought in aftermath of Kobe earthquake back in 1995.

 

The scale here is not comparable.  And suppose it was and this doesn't do anything significant to their economy--then we aren't looking at some kind of economic cataclysm, either.  And as I said, nothing is certain.

[KFRCanuk]

Every day, there seems to be worse news from the nuclear plant. As I write this, there are news reports that there are no longer any personnel at the plant. There are 6 reactors with 6 spent fuel ponds.  All(12) need to be cooled somehow.

 

Hopefully another day will show the trend reversing BUT it doesn't look good.

 

I'll be watching GE.

 

EDIT: I also wonder if 6 reactors + 6 ponds can cause an entire G8 economy down the tubes and what that means for other G8 nations. I better go to bed.

[Parsad]

What happened to the 50 technicians who stayed on to try and get them under control?  Is a meltdown imminent now?  Cheers!

[KFRCanuk]

What happened to the 50 technicians who stayed on to try and get them under control?  Is a meltdown imminent now?  Cheers!

 

"Japan nuclear crisis: Workers halt desperate struggle to stop meltdown at Fukushima plant"

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/2011/03/15/2011-03-15_japan_nuclear_crisis_workers_halt_desperate_struggle_to_stop_meltdown_at_fukushi.html

 

 

[Parsad]

Aren't the Japanese the most advanced on robotic technology?  Don't they have any robots that could be sent in there to continue the work?  We have frickin' unmanned drones, robots that build cars, and robots that detonate explosive devices.  We don't have any sort of robot that could be controlled remotely in this type of situation?  Cheers!

[Parsad]

Looks they were allowed back to work on cooling the rods.  Although, unless the U.S. or others have any other ideas, these seem to be last-ditch efforts before contamination.  Cheers!

 

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/fire-japan-nuclear-reactor-heightens-radiation-20110315-171920-237.html

[KFRCanuk]

Aren't the Japanese the most advanced on robotic technology?  Don't they have any robots that could be sent in there to continue the work?  We have frickin' unmanned drones, robots that build cars, and robots that detonate explosive devices.  We don't have any sort of robot that could be controlled remotely in this type of situation?  Cheers!

 

radiation plays havok with electronics.

[Uccmal]

Sad state of affairs in Japan but it is not Chernobyl yet.  The few people who worked longer at the actual plant may actually die from their exposures - they were likely volunteers. 

 

On a positive note I have been buying stock in companies I already held - most for years.

Manulife - sold off at least 5 Billion for exposures of 150 m

Precision Drilling - hat tip to SD for reminding me.

Mullen Group

Sun Life - sold off in sympathy?

Seaspan - after that out of the park 3rd Q

GE options - 2013s Jan- 17.50s and 20s

 

All except PD pay dividends.

 

Events like these are inevitably followed by rallies.

[Cardboard]

Sanjeev,

 

Very disappointing indeed that they have so little in terms of robot help or other backup system to cool the plant down.

 

What I also find truly disappointing is that no one in that company apparently spent anytime looking at the potential impact of a tsunami on that plant sitting by the ocean. A big wave basically flooded the diesel generators used to provide backup electricity. Risk analysis should have highlighted that easily and the solution is not that complicated (relocate diesel generators, provide water tight enclosure, look at other systems that could stop functioning with flooding, etc.)

 

The tsunami hitting Thailand and other countries was on December 26, 2004!!! The warning signs were all there for a long time and no one took preventative action. It is probably no better in most countries.

 

Cardboard

[rmitz]

Sanjeev,

 

Very disappointing indeed that they have so little in terms of robot help or other backup system to cool the plant down.

 

What I also find truly disappointing is that no one in that company apparently spent anytime looking at the potential impact of a tsunami on that plant sitting by the ocean. A big wave basically flooded the diesel generators used to provide backup electricity. Risk analysis should have highlighted that easily and the solution is not that complicated (relocate diesel generators, provide water tight enclosure, look at other systems that could stop functioning with flooding, etc.)

 

The tsunami hitting Thailand and other countries was on December 26, 2004!!! The warning signs were all there for a long time and no one took preventative action. It is probably no better in most countries.

 

Cardboard

 

I actually read that they did do this analysis, and that recommendation was actually made at some point, but it did not happen.  Unless I'm thinking of a different site, they had some planning for the tsunami, since the generators were behind the sea wall, but they trusted that the wall would not be breached.  A little bit of hubris with a dramatic effect.

[value-is-what-you-get]

Sanjeev,

 

Very disappointing indeed that they have so little in terms of robot help or other backup system to cool the plant down.

 

What I also find truly disappointing is that no one in that company apparently spent anytime looking at the potential impact of a tsunami on that plant sitting by the ocean. A big wave basically flooded the diesel generators used to provide backup electricity. Risk analysis should have highlighted that easily and the solution is not that complicated (relocate diesel generators, provide water tight enclosure, look at other systems that could stop functioning with flooding, etc.)

 

The tsunami hitting Thailand and other countries was on December 26, 2004!!! The warning signs were all there for a long time and no one took preventative action. It is probably no better in most countries.

 

Cardboard

 

I agree preparedness should've been better for all the reasons stated.  I recall during the icestorm in Quebec years ago a community centre in Boucherville was essentially powered up when someone exercised the extreme common sense of hooking it up to a locomotive that was driven up to it on the tracks just behind the building.  Giant portable generator.  It makes me think that some sort of large somewhat fast ship equipped with generators and massive diesel water pumps could be driven right up to the dock and put into service when and where needed.  Power and water.  Of course one could also spend a little more in the first place and mount the backup generators on a 50' high cube of solid concrete . . . but this is easy with the clarity of hindsight. 

 

It really makes me focus on the assumptions I make along the way - there are always a lot of "what if's" and the more remote they are the easier it is to discount them as unlikely when in fact the possibility is a far less important consideration than the consequence.

[Guest broxburnboy]

The GE Mark I reactors have design flaws that have been known since their first implementation.

 

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/03/16/956868/-In-1976-3-GE-Scientists-quit-in-protest-over-flaws-in-Mark-1-Reactor-design-

 

It's also not a good idea to build nuclear generating plants near active seismic areas like the Japanese ones and the Diablo Canyon reactors in California:

 

http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/energy/blogs/nuclear-power-and-earthquake-zones-overlap-in-the-us

 

Let's hope the zeal for environmental deregulation to "free up" private industry profits, is tempered by public interest.

 

Cheers

[Ballinvarosig Investors]

The biggest issue now appears to be burning of the spent nuclear fuel that's stored above the reactor. If that stuff is broken down into particles that are small enough to be ingested, or inhaled; this will become a disaster.

[Guest Bronco]

This reminds me of the oil spill.  So much speculation.

 

My prediction is this will all be contained and radiation spread will be minor.

 

It is also, like everyone here, my hope.

[SmallCap]

I am reminded of an old proverb

 

Nothing is as bad as it first appears nor are things ever as good as they first seem.

 

But human emotions will still have their rollercoaster rides aided by some selling fear and others selling hope

 

First few days of reports on 9/11 they gave numbers of the casualties in the range of 6-10K

 

I agree I both expect and hope that this won't be quite the disaster that the media is making it out to be.

[KFRCanuk]

Here is an article on the PM of Japan.

 

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/03/16/peter-goodspeed-livid-japanese-pm-takes-personal-control-of-crisis-management/

 

"In 2004, while leader of the opposition, he was exposed as an adulterer and became ensnared in a pension fund scandal, after failing to pay required contributions while he was health minister.

 

Disgraced and desperate, he resigned as party leader, shaved his head, donned traditional Buddhist garb and went on a pilgrimage to 88 Buddhist temples on the island of Shikoku.

 

Before long, he had returned to politics, became finance minister and ultimately, last June, Prime Minister."

 

 

 

[Uccmal]

The biggest issue now appears to be burning of the spent nuclear fuel that's stored above the reactor. If that stuff is broken down into particles that are small enough to be ingested, or inhaled; this will become a disaster.

 

And every nuclear plant on earth has spent fuel rods sitting in swimming pools.  Hows that for bliss and joy.  It is easy to speculate on what could/should have been done.  At a certain point the risks are analyzed and assigned a probability.  They considerd earthquakes, and considered tsunami's, but they evidently didn't consider both at greater sizes than ever before.  The Japanese are careful and thorough. 

 

So, how much solar power generation capacity using conventional methods could one install in the deserts in southern Europe, China, US, and SA. for 30-40 Billion?

[Guest misterstockwell]

The biggest issue now appears to be burning of the spent nuclear fuel that's stored above the reactor. If that stuff is broken down into particles that are small enough to be ingested, or inhaled; this will become a disaster.

 

And every nuclear plant on earth has spent fuel rods sitting in swimming pools.  Hows that for bliss and joy.  It is easy to speculate on what could/should have been done.  At a certain point the risks are analyzed and assigned a probability.  They considerd earthquakes, and considered tsunami's, but they evidently didn't consider both at greater sizes than ever before.  The Japanese are careful and thorough. 

 

So, how much solar power generation capacity using conventional methods could one install in the deserts in southern Europe, China, US, and SA. for 30-40 Billion?

 

High quality panels can be had retail for $2/watt. In mega-bulk, figure much less.

[doc75]

Does anyone have some reliable numbers on the cost and "efficiency" of solar power?

 

By "cost" I mean the total cost of a cell (including mining and the energy required in fabrication) divided by its lifetime energy output.  I don't even know the life span of modern cells, or if their performance degrades with time. 

 

By "efficiency" I mean the amount of energy that is recovered over the life of the cell for every unit of energy expended on fabrication.  How long must a cell operate before it "breaks even"?

 

Thanks!

J

 

PS: Most of the figures I've seen appear to use today's fossil/hydro/nuclear dominated electricity rates in the calculation of fabrication costs.  But if solar is to replace legacy forms of energy in a meaningful way, then I guess the cost of fabrication energy must be modeled to reflect this.  (This reminds me of how the cost of oil sands extraction is currently disguised by low nat gas prices.)

[S2S]

Per CNN:

 

[11:40 a.m. ET Wednesday, 12:40 a.m. Thursday in Tokyo] Japan's central bank made an additional 13.8 trillion yen ($170 billion) available to money markets Wednesday to cushion the country's banking system from the shock of Friday's earthquake and tsunami, Kyodo News reported. That brings the Bank of Japan's  emergency funding total to 55.6 trillion yen ($688 billion), Kyodo said.

 

So it took BoJ all of 4 days to do match US Government's year-long TARP effort (http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/national/200904_CREDITCRISIS/recipients.html). One has to wonder now that Mrs. Watanabe, the proverbial money manager of Japanese households, can no longer afford putting savings into zero-yielding JGBs, where will the money come from?

[Parsad]

This reminds me of the oil spill.  So much speculation.

 

My prediction is this will all be contained and radiation spread will be minor.

 

It is also, like everyone here, my hope.

 

I truly hope you are proven correct!  With the oil spill, you had one well that the world had to deal with.  Here you are looking at six reactors offline, with four in the preliminary stages of a full-blown meltdown.  On top of that, the ability to access the site, with recurring aftershocks and high levels of radiation, make it difficult to get under control.  I think the worst case scenario won't come to fruition, but the ending won't be as comfortable as BP's spill.  Cheers!