Jump to content

Any thoughts on Egypt From A Value Investing Perspective (Opportunities)?


BargainValueHunter
 Share

Recommended Posts

http://www.wikiwealth.com/country:egypt

 

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/emerging-markets-civets-columbia-indonesia-vietnam/1/27/2011/id/32438

 

The CIVETS nations -- Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa -- are a motley group, but they have this in common: All are running headlong into the 21st century, racing to stake their claim to a place among the world’s economic powerhouses. It’s not a painless process, for their people or for investors.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maybe Egypt is irrelevant.  But is there a trend here?  Water shortages?  Grain/Food shortages?  Inflationary pressures?  Same with oil/energy.

 

How much of the US overleveraging caused this?  0% 10% 100%?

 

Interesting times we live in.  I don't think this will result in any kind of US crisis, but I will state that we have never been interconnected with the rest of the world as we are now.  Look at the ties with China and the US where both parties probably feel the other is screwing them.

 

Maybe someone can help me out with the natural gas issue in the US.  This should drive down energy costs in the US, no?  I'm assuming the same "new" drilling technology can be used globally, increasing energy around the world.  Maybe this will offset some of the resource scarcity that appears in different regions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Aside from the Canal and some long term geo political ..... I dont see what the big deal is. From a personal perspective its nice to see people rise up. Also Kuppy has an interesting take on it. I kind of disagree that this is Bernanke's fault. Other governments have to deal with their own inflation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rule#1: Don't lose money.

Rule#2: Never forget rule#1.

 

Regime change is excellent for those who seek emancipation.  It's less excellent for those who have capital at risk because there's a sea change in the political legal environment, and the possibility of a protracted civil war.  Quick way to lose money.....just ask investors who had capital in Cuba.

 

I'll take a pass, thanks.

 

SJ

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yup, good answer Stubble!  I have never left North America, and I can't say my results would have been any better going elsewhere.  Buffett didn't leave North America until the last decade and he was managing tens of billions.  China, schmina...you can always find cheap here, and it will always eventually move back to intrinsic value. 

 

You give away many rights going to other countries where they aren't respected as liberally.  If Egypt goes to civil war, you can bet that any new regime change is going to behave similarly to Chavez...outsiders get out and the state now owns your assets!  No thanks.  Cheers!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gentlemen, you make a good point, but I always admired a guy named John Templeton. He did rather well investing globally and sifting through opportunities that many wouldn't consider. Regime transitions are uncertain affairs, but recent history has favored democratic governments. Of course 'this time it could be different'.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sir John managed alot more money than any of us.  So did Peter Cundill.  They also had restrictions on the amount of concentration they could have in any one investment. 

 

We don't have those restrictions, and our capital base is small enough so that it isn't necessary to leave North America.  Buffett only invests overseas because his universe of opportunities has now shrunk to the point where he has absolutely no choice.  Investors can do perfectly fine investing overseas...but it isn't necessary at all.  Cheers!   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...